Ʈ Pioneering Portfolio Management in 2000 & 2009
: ̺
David F. Swensen 1954~2021-05-03
ű: & ̱ȫ
ǻ: ̷ /
2010-04 / 536 / \32,000
ϴ þ ϸ鼭 û ͷ ø ̺ ڼԴϴ. 뿡 ־ 1. ͷ ߱ϸ鼭
ҷȰ 2. п ʿ Ȱϰ ϴ Ϻϰ سϴ. å ڻ
, öа ڹ ֽϴ.
ڱ ( ̸鼭 ͷ ִ)ֽ ϴ
ٶϴٰ ϰ ϰ ֽϴ. ! () ε/ֽ/
ڻ ο δ п å ū Ͻϴ.
PDFϷ 1
2010̰ å ռ 2 2018Դϴ. 2021 3ϰ
̹ 4ߴµ, İ ִ å
ᱹ å Ҵ ű ߽ϴ.
ū ط ο ְ, оⰡ
ʹ ϴ. å ߴٴ ƽ. ó
о 13 Ƿ ϴ Ŷ µ, ̹ !
ϱ ̷ ϴ±, ͱ ѵ ָ
̳ ȭ ӵ Ϸ ָ ŭ ϰ ɷ ӵ Ӹ 㰡 ̾ŵ. , ̰ ģ ۸ Ÿմϴ. ~
ϴ - /
ε ù° , ° , ° Ͱ , , ù° , ° , ° ̴.
ִ ڰ ڿ ϱ ؼ ' 50% ս ȸϱ ؼ 100% ¸ؾ Ѵ' Ǵ ' ڰ Ŀٶ ս
ڿ ̴' ݾó 濡 ʴ ߿ϴٰ Ѵ.
ū 糭 ϸ ذ ̴.
ū Ŀٶ Ǽ ϴ ̱ ,
Ǽ ν ִٴ ̴.
ó å -
å ó ̺ ߴ. װ
װ û ִ.
ù°, װ å Ը , , Ư ģ īϽð ɿ ҿܵ
ߴ.
°, 'ڸ ΰ(how-to) å ڸ ʹ ̰ ߴ.
ϴ ͷ
20(1988~2007) ϴ ͷ 15.6% S&P
10.8% ȸѴ.
- 10(1988~1998)
ϴ ͷ 15.5% S&P 18.6% ȸѴ.
- ֱ 10(1998~2007)
ϴ ͷ 17.8% S&P 7.1% ȸѴ.
-> 츮 ο ð ƽԵ 2021
3
1. Ʋ
Ư ȸ ö м ,
Ѵ.
ڽŰ Ǿ Ȱ ִ.
ö м ǻ ν ڽ ְ α ִ.
2. 븮
ﰢ ϴ ε ª ð Ѵ.
ݵ Źڴ ϰ ϱ⸦ ϸ ڸ ߱Ѵ.
ܱ̰ Ÿ ν پ ̴.
ū ִ ȸ ġ ȴ.
濵ڴ ڽſԸ ִ ߱ϸ ջѴ. ̷ ϱ ڴ Ű ַϴ 濵ڸ ãƾ ϸ 濵ڰ
ϴ ȸ ϴ ̴.
3.
ڻ ְ ̿ؼ ؼ ڼ ϰ ؾ Ѵ.
ŷ
å ִ Źڴ ܱ ġ Ұϰ ϴ ϰ ڻ ŷ
Ѵ.
߱
ŷ ̶ ߱ ϴ ̴.
ͷ
ͷ Ʈ 3 ڻ, Ÿ̹, ð õ ǻ .
ڴ 3 ߿ϰ ΰ
ϴµ, ڴ Ʈ 뿡 ־ 嵵 ݿϿ Ʈ .
Ÿ̹
ū ϰ ְ ϰ ŵϴ ɷ ߴٴ Ű
. ؼ ֽİ ä Ϸ õ ֽİ Ϸ
õ ٴ ξ . Ÿ̹ ϴ ̴.
-
Ʈ Ը ȭŲٴ ϰ ٶ ʴ. ̵ ʹ ʰ Ȱ, ʰ Ѵ. Ǵ θ ʹ ؼ ū ġ Ҿϰ ¸ Ѵ.
- ̳ʵ ν, ŷ
ȸ
츮 ؼ ֽĽ忡 Դ ϰ ϴ ȿ ؼ ݴѴ. ̷ Ÿ̹ ϰ ϴ ڵ Ϲ , ȸ
, ݸ, ü , ġ, ȸ ֽĽ忡 ġ ͵鿡
Ѵ. ̷ ݱ .
- Ű, [ȮǼ
ô ]
ͷ ڴ ο ӿ ִ ƴϹǷ ȿ ã ϴ
Ŵ ָѴ.
ڵ Ǽ ﰢ ִ 忡 ϱ⺸ٴ
üϰ 縦 Ѵ. 忡 ϴ ڵ
, ö, Ư¡ ִ.
ڴ ̾ Ѵ. ϰԵ
ʿ ñ ִ.
ڽ ֳ ̳ ٸ ߴ ܿ ȥ ̰ Ȯ
ڸ ϴ 츮 ô ǿ ġ ٴ ȴ. ̰ ڵ
װ ϵ ϱ ̴.
- ̳ʵ
ġ
1 50Ʈ
'ó ڵ ڻ ġ(fair value)
ݿ ϴ, ġ ߱ϸ ڴ ۿ .
ܼ ֽ ż
PER ֽ̳ PBR ֽ
żϴ ġ ܼ ̴. ܼ ̳ ڻ ġ ΰ ŷǴ
ֽ żϴ Ͻ 濵 ̳ ̷ ߿ Ҹ ϴ ´.
ܼ ġ ͷ ڵ ⺻ 迡
Ű ߴ.
GMO 'ܼ
ֽĵ żϴٰ Ⱓ '60 ȫ(60 year flood)' ۾ ' ߴ.
ڿ , 'Ϲ ϰ, , к δٴ ൿ ̴' ϰ ִ. ϴ ڻ ̿ ȸ ã
Ŵ Ȯ ؾ߸ Ѵ.
о߿ а ̷ Ѹ.
αⰡ ڻ αⰡ ڻ ִ.
αⰡ ڻ ̾ ϶Ű ŭ α ڻ Ų.
ϴ ڶ ݿ Ұϴ.
ڰ ٽ ڿ Ѵ. γ Ῡ
̾.
ݵ ڿ ϴ ڵ
- ġ [
ݵ] û ͷ ÷ ݵ ڵ ͷ ٴ մϴ. ΰ ڿ ־ ־ Դϴ.
ݵ о߿ ְ ͷ ڶϴ GMO
ͷ ڱ .
GMO ̼̰ ġ ߽ ü Ÿ 1990 ζٴ Ѿư ߴ. 1998 1999 ֽĽ ֿ ұϰ GMO ڻ 300 200 پ.
Ⱓ Ż 3 ظ Ҵ.
1. ڻ
GMO ݵ带 ȾƼ
2. Ŵ鿡 ؼ
3. GMO ٽ ȸϴ ؼ ظ
̴.
뷱
ſ ̼ ൿ ̴. ϴ 忡 Ʈ ǥ
Ϸ ִ ڻ Ȱ ϶ ڻ ؾ Ѵ.
̼ 뷱 ϴ ڴ α ִ ڻ Ȱ α ڻ . ش ڿ ⸦ 䱸Ѵ.
к ִ ڶ, ֱ ϰ, ϰ ϸ, Ѵ.
ε ͷ
Ӵ ä ܿ ġ ֽ , ڵ
ε äǽ ֽĽ Ǵ Ѵ.
̺ ҽÿ 80 Ϳ ֽ 10.4%, ä 5.4 ͷ ´. ͷ ̸ ġ ؼ غ ε ڵ äǺ ų 2.5% ͷ Ѵٰ ̴.
1987 2006
ε ε ͷ 8.4% Ÿ
S&P500 ͷ 11.8% ̱ ߱ ä ͷ 6.5% ̿ ġߴ.
̾
ڻ꿡 ͷ ٸ 繫 ȥ ̴. ٺ ֽĿ ٸ ڵ ֽ ̴.
äǰ ֽ ո ڶ ä ̴. ̾ ں ȿ ϴ ʿ .
ġ Ž
濵 , װ չ̵
ƴϵ ֵ ָӴϿ ´. ū Ѵ ൿ 濵ڰ ƴ϶
θ ڽŵ 踦 ä 濵ڿԼ ´.
GE CEO
ġ Ư ν ڽŰ ȸ ĥ ߴ.
Ʈ GE ϰ ִ 1500 ¥ Ʈ
Ǻ ȸ 737 Ʈ, , ΰ ڽ ڰ ԵǾ ִ.
ӱⰣ ݾ ġ ִ.
л
ڴ л ̱ å ߱,
ϱ ʴ´.
ڵ Ϸ ̴ Ϳ л Ʈ
ϴ ȭ å Ѵ.
Ȳ Ѵٸ Ư ڻ걺 ̰ ڻ л ؾ
Ȯ ִ.
2000 2, ũ̸
Ϲа Ϲ ν ״ ڽ ٸ ڰ ӱ ߵ鿡 ̾
β ٵ Ѵ.
(ġ Ŵ ۿ) 츮 ýڿ ϴ ߸Ǿٰ 츮 ¯ Ӹ ƴ϶, ڽŵ̾߸ ڶ Ѵ.
(ʸ ֽ Ŵ鿡 ) ǹ ¸ ؾ Ѵ.
־ Ŵ īݶ ø ż Ŵ̴.
翬 ũ̸ ũ . װ ġֿ
ݴϴ ǹ ؿ īݶ 10%, ô
36%, ʸ 171% ͷ ´. ÿ
ũ̸Ӱ ȣϴ ߴ. ý ְ 57%, Ĵ 84% .
ũ̸Ӱ ֵֿ ɰϰ ߸ ߴµ ұϰ 2005 3, CNBC
ܵ TV 'Mad Money' ð.
-> ߵ ߵ Ƣ ȴٴ ΰ? Ѷ 츮 TV ũ̸Ӹ 䳻 ־ϴ. ϴ, Ҹ , Buy!!!!! Ǵ Sell!!!!! ϸ鼭 å Ƶ簡?^^
ݵŴ 1 ǥ
ڻԸ Ŵ μƼ õǾ ִ. ڻ
ޱ ڻ Կ ҵ þ. Ŵ ʰ ø
ͺ ο ¸ ϴ ڻ ø ִٴ ˰ ȴ.
ݵŴ Ȱ ڻ Ѵ. ڻ Ϸ ó DZ Ŵ Ʈ Ǵµ, ̷ ȸ簡 Ź ŵ ɼ ֹ.
ڻ Ѵٴ κ ݵŴ鿡Դ ⲯؾ 2
ȴ.
ϴ ü ȸ ̻ȸ ̵ Ű鼭 δ
ū ᱹ ڴ.
, ظ , ̰, ٷ ൿ ̱ ̴.
װ Ѵٸ, ڴ ϴٰ
̰ ܱ ϸ( ɼ ſ ũ) ״
Ѵ.
ó ϴ ͺ ϴ ؼ .
ڽ ƴ м Ѵ
, Ҹ Ȥ
ϸ ڴ ӵǰ ڴ ذ ɼ .
п ʵ鿡 ϰ ϸ ǻ ݵ ʿ ǵ ȴ. ʵ ϸ ڵ Ǽ ɼ . ʵ мϸ ̷ 谡 ־.
κ ڵ ̶ ǻ ־ ¦ ܱ Ǵ
¿Ѵ. Ƹ ܱ еϴ ΰ ϴ.
ġ սǷ , ﰢ ϰ ϴ
, ӿ ¸ϰ 屸 Ⱓ ª.
ä - ſ å
- å ſ
2002 4 , (WorldCom) äǿ A ο߰ ȸ ä Ȯ ߴ.
423, 䰡 ȸ 鼭 ũ ܰ躸 ܰ BBB ߴ.
CEO 2 59, ũ BB ߶״. ̷ 'ũ ߶ ִ ä' Ǵ Ҹ Ȱ Ǿ.
620, ä Ϻο Ǿٸ äǿ B
־.
' ' ä Ư¡ C ߷ȴ.
715, 230 Ը ä ȯ ߴ.
721, ִ 1,000 Ѵ Ը Ļ ûߴ.
'ݿ Ƚ ִ ε' A ȸ翡 Ļ · Żٲϴ ä 3 ɸ ʾҴ.
̿ ' ä '̶ ߴ.
-> ?^^
1. Ϻθ ٵ κ ׳ Űϴ. ָ ſ ƴ!!!^^
2. ڰ ȿ尡 ⺻ ΰ ִ Դϴ. ڴ
̱ ٰ ϴ ƴ, ̳ ư ųó ġ ȿ ϴ
ո ̶ ֽϴ.
3. ̾ ͺ信 ߰ κ ڸ ε ݵ尡 ٸ ϴ Ͱ մϴ.
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