| Ʒ Ư ũ(valuewalk.com) 2023 8 4 Դϴ. ֽĿ ǰ Դϴ. Ǵܿ å ο ֽϴ.
Ͽ 50 ϸ鼭 5 Ұϴٴ ˰ ִ°? (Ͽ . ũƮ ijŻ Ȩ)
50 ڻ ϸ鼭 û ŵ Ͽ Ⱓ Ұ 5 ߴ. ̴. 2022 22 ڻ ״ 5 θ ־.
װ Ƚ ſ , ǹ̴ ʴ. 5 Ĺ ر, ̱ ý ر, Covid-19 ̾.
̷ 5 ƹԳ ƴϾ. ũƮ ijŻ(Oaktree Capital) ֱ ó, Ͽ ṵ̈ Ȯ Ѵ. װ ϴ 5 ħ .
(ڷ: ũƮ ijŻ Ȩ)
1. ãƶ
Ͽ ִ ǵ Ǹ ϱ ؼ 縦 ؾ Ѵ١ ߴ.
̷ ִ ƴ, ״ ϱ ؼ ϴ ߿ϴٰ ϰ ִ.
Ͽ ֱ(market cycles) ִ ̷ٰ ߴ. ν(pattern recognition) Ϸ ħ ߵ ƴϴ. 5 Ͽ ó ھ迡 30 Ŀ.
2. ش Ȳ ̿϶
Ͽ ã ش ݴ а ̴. Ͽ ش ̰ų ̸, ְ ذ ӵ Ȯ ١ ߴ.
ڵ ʹ ̰ ְ ̶ , ״ ̸ ִٴ ȣ .
ÿ ״ ڵ ϰ Ѵ. ڵ ְ ϶ ϸ鼭 Ȳ ֽ ɼ ̴. ״ ϴٰ 鼭 ż ְ —, ſ —ر 찡 ١ ߴ.
, Ͽ 忡 ູ ĥ ŵϰ, й谨 ĥ ż ɼ .
3. ȸͿ ϶
Ͽ , ֱ(cycles) װ .
ε ߰ϰ ̷ ɼ , ڿ ϶, ħü ڿ ȸ ȴ. ̸ ȸ͡ ϴµ, ̴ ֽ ְ(stocks price) 밳 (average price) Ѵٴ ǹѴ.
Ͽ ֱ ϴ װ Եȴٴ , ϰ ̸ ⺸ٴ——ݴ ڵ ɼ ٴ ؾ Ѵ١ ߴ.
, ֽ Ρ Ȥ ְ Ѱ谡 , Ѱ迡 ϸ ֽ δ ٲ ȴ. Ǹ, ε ȴ.
4. ױ ݴ ڴ
Ͽ ְ ʹ ָ ݴ ϴ ִٰ Ͼ, ױ ݴ ( ) Ǵ Ϳ ؼ ߴ.
Ͽ κ ´ٰ ߴ.
Ͽ , κ , κ ϴ ŭ Ǵ. ݴ( ) ϱ ؼ (a) ϰ ִ, (b) װ ߸ , (c) , ؾ ϴ ؾ Ѵ١ ߴ. ⼭ ֡ ߿ϴ. Ͽ ƴ϶ ſ ̴. Ͽ ڽ ߴ иϰ ִ Ѵ.
5. ϶
Ͽ Ѵ. ״ ߽ɸ Ÿ ΰ ۽ ߴ. ϴ ʱ ġ Ӹ ƴ϶ ε ϴ.
ϴ ó, 踦 ̴ ̴. ״ 忡 ϴ ϵ ƴ϶ ڵ ̸ ̴ Ե ̴. ľؼ ̸ ̿ؾ Ѵ١ ߴ.
, Ͽ 5 ϰ ɸ Ȥ С ̴. <>
* ó: (Jesse Oberoi), ĮϽƮ, CFA, "Billionaire Howard Marks Shares 5 Market Clues That Guided His Most Successful Investment, 2023 8 4, https://www.valuewalk.com/billionaire-howard-marks-shares-5-market-cues-that-guided-his-most-successful-investments/
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