PER ѱ : <Ÿֿ̹ ġ>
, <Ÿֿ̹ ġ: ġ>(Ż īڽ ) ѱ ű
* ۿ ߰ߵǾ , Դϴ. 뿡 ־, ̸ ٷ Ϻ ġ Ͽϴ. ֽ е鲲 帳ϴ. κ ƽϴ.
PER̶ ֽ ġ ϴ ϳ. , ڴ ġ ϴ ġ Ŀ, ް ϴ ġ ϳ. ̶ ǥ Ϻϰ ġ ϴ ˾Ƴ ó Ұɿ ٴ . ġ ϴ ְ Ǵܰ 䱸Ǵ ͵ ̴. PER Ȥó ġ ˷ִ ƴұ ϴ ظ ־.
PER̶ ġ ϴ ƴ϶ ȸ ġ ϴ ȸ翡 ִٴ ǹ̿, ȸ PER Ȥ ü PER Ǵϴ PER Ǵ ̶ ǹ̿ PER̾. ⺻ PER ͷ ⺻PER , ȸ ũ, 繫ũ, ȮǼ Ͽ PER ϴ ̴.
ƹư PER ġ ϴ ƴ, ϰ ܼϱ ڴ ̸ ֿϱ ߾. Ư Ż īڽ PER µ, װ PER PER ƾ Ѵ ⺻Ŀ ߳ ʴ ո ̾ ̴. , ־.
īڽ PER Ȱ ѱ PER ϴ յڰ ʴ . īڽ PER 0%, ͷ 0% ̸ μȸ ⺻PER 8 οϰ ִ(̾ 8.5 οߴ). īڽ μȸ ⺻PER ڰ ְ ִٰ ߴµ, Korea Discount Ͽ ѱ μȸ翡 5 ⺻PER οϸ ߴٰ ߴ. ̴ ſ ܼ ̾.
ѱ μȸ ⺻PER 5 PER ϰ ͵ ƴѵ PER ſ ؿ ŷǰ ־, ΰ ż Ҵ. ֽĵ ó ʾҴ. ġvalue gap(ġ ) ϰ, PER ؿ ŷǰ ִµ ұϰ ó PER ȸ ϰ ־. ? īڽ PER Ʋ ϱ, ƴϸ ߸ϰ ֳ?ϴ ߴ. ö.
īڽ PER 100Ⱓ ̱ ֽĽ (EPS ) 5%, ͷ 4%, PER 15 ̴. PER տ ũ ־. ̶ ؼ ѱ μȸ翡 ο ⺻PER 5 ƹ ٰŰ ̾. ְ Ұߴ. ѱ ֽĽ忡 īڽ PER Ϸ ѱ ֽĽ ο ѱ ߴ ̴. Ʒ õ غҴ.
PER ͼ ڵ鲲 ݱ ǿ Ǹ ϰ ѱ PER ϴ ϱ ؼ Ż īڽ PER ణ ʿϴ(PER ͼ ̷ ټ ظ ֽø ϴ´).
īڽ PER
Ż īڽ PER ͷ ⺻PER , ű ȸ ̷ ĥ ̴ ũ, 繫ũ, ȮǼ Ͽ PER(ġ) ϴ ̴.
ܼϰ ϸ, <PER(, ġ) = ⺻PER + ũ + 繫ũ + ȮǼ>̴.
⺻PER ͷ PER. ⺻PER ϱ ؼ Ż īڽ ǥ Ȱؾ Ѵ(̷ ǥ Ģ ؼ Ÿֿ̹ ġ pp. 210-213 ҰǾ ִ. ⼭ Ģ ڼ Ұ ϰ ־ ǥ PER ϴ Ұϰڴ). Ż īڽ EPS ǥ Ҵ.
<
EPS PER PER 0% 8 ∆0.65 1% 8.65 2% 9.3 3% 9.95 4% 10.6 5% 11.25 6% 11.9 7% 12.55 8% 13.2 9% 13.85 10% 14.5 11% 15.15 12% 15.8 13% 16.45 14% 17.1 15% 17.75 16% 18.4 17% 18.9 ∆0.50 18% 19.4 19% 19.9 20% 20.4 ~ 25% 22.9 ~
<ǥ 2: īڽ PER-ͷ ߰Ǿ PER Ʈ>
ͷ ߰ PER Ʈ 0.00% 0 0.10% 0.1 0.50% 0.5 1.00% 1 1.50% 1.5 2.00% 2 2.50% 2.5 3.00% 3 3.50% 3.5 4.00% 4 4.50% 4.5 5.00% 5 5.50% 5.5 6.00% 6 6.50% 6.5 10.00% 10
ǥ Ȱ ⺻PER ϴ 캸.
A EPS ͷ 0%, ȸ PER 8 ȴ. (ǥ1) EPS 0% οǴ PER 8̰, (ǥ2) ͷ 0% ߰ οǴ PER 0̱ ̴.
Aó ͵ ʰ ݵ ʴ ȸ縦 μȸ ϴµ, Ż īڽ ̿ μȸ ⺻PER 8 ߴ. μȸ PER 0 ƴ ʴ ȸ ص ġ ƴϱ ̴. 0% ۳ Ȱ ´ٴ ǹѴ. , ̷ ְ, ٸ ȸ翡 μǾ ο ġ â ִ.
, B EPS 8% ͷ 2.0% ϸ, B ⺻PER 15.20̴( EPS οǴ PER, 13.20 + ͷ ߰Ǵ PER, 2.0 = 15.20).
⺻PER ϴ ó ϰ ܼϴ. ǥ Ȱϱ⸸ ϸ ȴ. ڰ ؾ ִٸ ⺻PER ϱ ʿ ǥ , EPS ͷ ã ͻ̴. ͷ м ڷ ã ִ.
EPS ؾ ұ? ʴ. ش ȸ 5 EPS ϸ ȴ(5 ̻ ϼ ). 2005 ~2009 C ִ 7.8%, 9.1%, 8.7%, 3.1%, 6.5% EPS 7.04%̴[(7.8% + 9.1% + 8.7% + 3.1% + 6.5%) 5]. ⼭ C ͷ 3.0% ȸ ⺻PER 15.55 ȴ(ǥ ؼ غñ⸦ Ѵ).
̷ ⺻PER ȸ ũ, 繫ũ, ȮǼ PER̴. ⼭ PER ϴ .
PER = ⺻PER [1 + (1 – ũ)] [1 + (1 – 繫ũ)] [1 + (1 – ȮǼ)]
ũ ũ 繫ũ ִ. ũ ȸ ȯ ѷ ũ, 繫ũ Ư äȲ ǹѴ. ȮǼ ȸ Ѿ ʰ ϴٴ ǹѴ. PER ϱ ־ ũ, 繫ũ, ȮǼ .
<ǥ 3: īڽ PER-ũ, 繫ũ, ȮǼ >
|
ũ |
繫ũ |
ȮǼ |
̻ |
1.0 ̻(1.1, 1.2) |
1.0 ̻(1.1, 1.2) |
1.0 (0.9, 0.8) |
|
1.0 |
1.0 |
1.0 |
|
1.0 (0.9, 0.8) |
1.0 (0.9, 0.8) |
1.0 ̻(1.1, 1.2) |
* ǥ ״ ̿ ִ.
⺻PER 15.55 C , ΰϱ ũ պ , ä 繫ũ պ ٰ غ. ȮǼ C 5 EPS(7.8%, 9.1%, 8.7%, 3.1%, 6.5%) ִ. ũ 1.2, 繫ũ 0.9, ȮǼ 1.0 ִ(̷ ϱ ؼ ö 繫ǥ м м ʿ, Ȱ ְ ִ. ٸ Ҽ ϴ ̴).
ٸ C PER .
= 15.55 [1 + (1 – 1.2)] [1 + (1 – 0.9)] [1 + (1 – 1)]
= 15.55 0.8 1.1 1
= 13.68
C PER ⺻PER . PER ⺻PER 쵵 . ⼭ ؾ 繫 ũ ȮǼ PER ⺻PER 30% ̻ ȴٴ ̴. , ũ ƹ ȮǼ ſ PER ⺻PER 30% ̻ ص 30% ̾ ̶ ̴(ִ Premium ѵ = 30%). , ⺻PER 10ε, ũ ȮǼ PER 15 Ǿٸ 13 PER ϶ ̴.
̷ PER S&P 500 100Ⱓ ̱ ֽĽ EPS 5%, ͷ 4%, PER 15 ٽ ѹ ֽñ ٶ. ƿ īڽ PER ̷ ̱ ̱ հ ϰ 5% ϰ ͷ 4% ȸ簡 ִٸ, (ǥ 1) (ǥ 2) ȸ ⺻PER 15.3 ǰ ̴ հ ġѴ.
PER ѱ – ù ° õ
ռ īڽ PER ѱ ״ ִ ϴ ǹ̴. 5% ͷ 4% ѱȸ ⺻PER 15 ɱ? ʴ ̴. ⺻ ѱ ֽĽ հ ̱ ֽĽ ٸ ̴.
ڴ ѱ PER ʿ ѱ ֽĽ ս Ȯϱ ǽ EPS, ͷ, PER ڷḦ ãƺҴ. , (1) ŷҿ ã ִ ڷ 2000 ڷ̱ 2000 2009 10 ڷḦ ѱ PER ۿ ; (2) ŷ PER ðѾ ƴ϶ ̾ EPS ƴ϶ ִ ; (3) ŷ 2000 4 ǰ ̳ , Ȥ ̳ ̱ ̵ ġ տ ݿ ʾҰ, ⼭ ϴ PER ü պ ټ ̸ д. īڽ S&P 500 ľߴٴ ϸ, ѱ PER µ ǥ Ѱ迡 ұϰ ѱ PER ü ū ȴ.
, ѱ ǽ 10Ⱓ PER 15.80(ų PER ), ͷ 1.86%, 27.10%. ش Ϳ ߰, ų ðѾ PER (ŷҿ PER = ðѾ/, = ðѾ/PER), ܼ ̴. ̷ ġ鿡 ؼ Ʒ ǥ ֱ ٶ.
ðѾ() PER (ðѾ/) ͷ 2000 188,041,489,641,710 12,258,245,739,355 - 15.34 2.44 2001 255,850,069,618,425 8,735,065,538,355 -0.2874 29.29 1.73 2002 258,680,756,224,005 16,571,477,016,272 0.8971 15.61 1.77 2003 355,362,625,966,515 35,324,316,696,473 1.1316 10.06 2.09 2004 412,588,138,748,165 26,047,230,981,576 -0.2626 15.84 2.06 2005 655,074,594,730,170 59,660,709,902,566 1.2905 10.98 1.74 2006 704,587,507,977,345 61,805,921,752,399 0.0360 11.4 1.66 2007 951,917,906,610,150 56,527,191,603,928 -0.0854 16.84 1.39 2008 576,927,703,499,465 64,174,383,036,648 0.1353 8.99 2.58 2009 887,935,182,728,775 37,497,262,784,154 -0.4157 23.68 1.17 - - 0.2710 15.80 1.86
<ǥ 4: 2000-2009 ѱ ǽ , PER, ͷ>
(ðѾ/PER, )
* ðѾ, PER, ͷ ŷ ڷῡ ״ ̸, ŷ ڷῡ ðѾ PER ̴. Ϳ ̴.
ѱ ⺻PER ̷ տ ̴. ٸ, (1) οǴ PER Ʈ īڽ PERó 16% 0.65, 17%ʹ 0.5 , (2) ͷ ߰Ǵ PER Ʈ īڽ ߴ. ѱ ֽĽ οǴ PER .
<ǥ 5: ѱ ǽ- οǴ PER>
(ִ) |
PER |
PER |
0% |
0.45(-2.15) |
∆0.65 |
1% |
0.45(-1.5) | |
2% |
0.45(-0.85) | |
3% |
0.45(-0.2) | |
4% |
0.45 | |
5% |
1.1 | |
6% |
1.75 | |
7% |
2.4 | |
8% |
3.05 | |
9% |
3.7 | |
10% |
4.35 | |
11% |
5 | |
12% |
5.65 | |
13% |
6.3 | |
14% |
6.95 | |
15% |
7.6 | |
16% |
8.25 | |
17% |
8.9 |
∆0.50 |
18% |
9.4 | |
19% |
9.9 | |
20% |
10.4 | |
21% |
10.9 | |
22% |
11.4 | |
23% |
11.9 | |
24% |
12.4 | |
25% |
12.9 | |
26% |
13.4 | |
27% |
13.9 | |
28% |
14.4 | |
29% |
14.9 | |
30% |
15.4 |
īڽ μȸ ص ġ ƴϱ μȸ PER 0 ƴ϶ ִ. ϸ ⺻PER ̳ʽ Ǵ μȸ ȸ( 0-3% ȸ) PER 4% ȸ 0.45 οߴ( ؼ ȣ ̳ʽ PER ص ϴ). ѱ 0-4% ȸ縦 μȸ ٸ ȸ ̴.
̷ Ͽ , ѱ ֽĽ忡 հ ȸ( 27%, ͷ 1.9% ȸ) ⺻PER 13.90 + 1.9 = 15.80 PER ġѴ. ʱ ̰ܰ ʿ , ѱ PER ϱ ù ° õμ ǹ̴ ִٰ ִ.
⺻PER (ǥ 3) ȰϿ ٸ ũ, 繫ũ, ȮǼ ݿ ϸ ȸ PER ̴.
ѱ μȸ( 0%, ͷ 0%) ⺻PER ̱ μȸ纸 ξ 翬ϴ. ѱ ̱ μȸ翡 ο ⺻PER 0.45 8 ְ ֽĽ 忡 ӹ ִ ѱ ֽĽ忡 ݿ ̴. Korea Discount, ȯũ ũ, ũ ѱ ֽĽ忡 ݿ ̴.
(ǥ 5) Ϻ ƴϸ(Ȱ ġ ϴ), ϳ õ Ұϴ. īڽ 100 踦 PER Ϳ 10 踦 , ֽĽ ǥ ϱ ̴. 10 ƴϴ. ̿ ITر, ȸ, ī, ħü, KOSPI 2,000Ʈ , ħ . ұϰ ۰ ǥ ġ Ҽ ŷڵ ִٴ ϸ, ð 鼭 Ǿ ̴. , ð , Ȱ 뿡 ؾ ̴. ̷ ѱ PER ϴ Ѵ. (2010 9 9)
[] 츮 ֽĽ ϴ ϰ ǥ ڷ Ͽ, ܼ 27.1% ڰ Դٰ ۾̴ ϴ. ۾̴ ̸ ϱ ϰ , Ǵ ٽ ̶ մϴ. ̸ ϱ ¿ ɰ ٶϴ.
<: ̵ ܡܡܡܡ>
ϴ ..
õ ֽŰ ΰ Ǿϴ.
մϴ.
ٸ, ϼ ְ ϱ ,
帧ι(DCF) ѱ Ưʿ
õ ֽø ͽϴ.
PER+ յ...
ƹư, å dzϰ ּż
մϴ.
,
< 繫ǥȰ> оϴ.