6,000 ߹ݿ ż ݳ̻ ϰ ֽϴ.
PBR ROE ( ġ м ̿) ǥְ 9,600 ־ϴ.
̹ ι ǥְ غ մϴ.
ι ⺻ ظ 2 ° ְ մϴ.
ռ 帮 ġ ʺԴϴ. ̴ ִٸ ּ^^
α ø̶ α Դϴ. ƴ ٶϴ. Ư, α üε ڿ ɷٰ ɷµ ü ִٸ Ź帳ϴ^^
------------------------------------------------
1) 1 8% 10⵿ ڸ ϴ 10⸸ 鰡 1,000 ä ִµ ߿ 1,100 ŷǰ ִٸ ұ ƾұ?
2) Ʈ 4 ε 忡 ŷȴٰ Ѵ. ٵ ü 1 3õ ϰ 500 10 ǰ ִٰ Ѵ. Ʈ ϱ ϱ ϱ?
3) ̶ / ٵǰ ǰ ǰ ȸ簡 ִ. 2006 3б ֽļ 3,000, 帧 260, 帧 5% ȸ ġ ̰ ִ ȸ ?
帧θ(DCF: discounted free cash flow) ̼ 캸ڴ Ŵ.
а 鿡 ִ. , ƴϴ. ٸ ϰ 鸸 ڴ Ŷ ̷ ٴ ̼ǰ ¾ƶ . Ƿ ִ ͵ ƴϰ... Դٰ... DCF Ǻ DCF ־ ϴĿ . ⼭ ٷ Ϲ̰ ܼȭ DCF ̴. (, ٰ ص ̸ ϰ ´ٰ .)
DCF Ϸ ðġ ؾ Ѵ.
ðġ
â ƴϴ. ߿ 1,000 10 1,000 ġ . ÷̼ ̶ ģ ø ׳ ¯ ̴.
ٵ ÷ ƴϴ. ȸ뵵 ϱ ̴. 1,000 10ı ¯ ʰ ϰų ֽ ڸ ϰų ε꿡 ؼ ִ . ȸ 10 1,000 ġ 900 ִ. 900 10 1,000 ġ 10% ε ġ ִ.
.
ģ 3 ִ ڴٸ 300 Ѵ. ƹ ģ 3 Ŀ 300 ´ٸ ÷ . ÷ 4% ּ ̻ ڸ ļ ƾ غ ʴ ̴. 10% ڸ ̸ 300 شٸ ģ Լ ư 3 x 0.1 x 3,000,000 = 900,000 2,100,000 ȴ.
, 꿡 ģ ſ ŷ ־ 3 300 ġ 2,100,000, 30% ȴٴ Ŵ.
ø Ѱ Ӹ ھƵΰ ȴ.
̷ 1,000 1,000 īƮ ۿ .
¯ ⺻ տ غ.
1 - ä ġ
ù° ٽ ѹ °.
1 8% 10⵿ ڸ ϴ 10⸸ 鰡 1,000 ä ִµ ߿ 1,100 ŷǰ ִٸ ұ ƾұ?
ä 츸 δ. 1 8% 80 شٴ ǵ 10̸ 800 ƴѰ? 700 ?
ѹ . 10⸸̴ 10Ŀ ̴.
| 簡ġ | ||
1 | 80 | 0.925925926 | 74.07407407 |
2 | 80 | 0.85733882 | 68.58710562 |
3 | 80 | 0.793832241 | 63.50657928 |
4 | 80 | 0.735029853 | 58.80238822 |
5 | 80 | 0.680583197 | 54.44665576 |
6 | 80 | 0.630169627 | 50.41357015 |
7 | 80 | 0.583490395 | 46.67923162 |
8 | 80 | 0.540268885 | 43.22151076 |
9 | 80 | 0.500248967 | 40.01991737 |
10 | 1080 | 0.463193488 | 500.2489671 |
հ | 1000 |
1, 2, 3...10 Ѵ.
1 9 ڸ ϱ ų 80̰ 10 ݱ ִϱ 1,080 ȴ.
̶ 8% ų ð ġ Ѵ. 1 ̷ ȴ. ( ״ Էϴ ̴.)
1 =(1/(1+0.08))^1
̰ ʰ ȭϸ ̷ ȴ.
(1/(1+ͷ))^
(⼭ ͷ ִ 忡 ں, cost of capital, ȴ. ִ 忡 rate of returns Ǵ Ǵ Ŵ.)
ij(^) ǹ̴.
2 ´.
2 =(1/(1+0.08))^2
...
10 =(1/(1+0.08))^10
̷ ̶ ̴.
ġ ٷ ̷ ð ġ ġ. ϱ 4 80 簡ġ 80 ƴ϶ 59ۿ ʴ´ٴ ̴. 10 1,080 500 簡ġ .
ִ ...
ٷ ̷ 簡ġ ~~~ غ 1,000 簡ġ ´ٴ Ŵ.
ű Ű?
Ÿ.
ä 簡ġ 1,000̴. 10 8% ä 鰡 ״ 1,000 ְ 1,100 ְ ̳ ض Ŵ.
ä ϴ ä ݰ ݸ(Ǵ ͷ) ݴ δٴ Ҹ ٸ ǥ .
Ȱ ä ͷ(/ݸ) 8% 10% öٰ غ ٽ . ġ .
| 簡ġ | ||
1 | 80 | 0.909090909 | 72.72727273 |
2 | 80 | 0.826446281 | 66.11570248 |
3 | 80 | 0.751314801 | 60.10518407 |
4 | 80 | 0.683013455 | 54.64107643 |
5 | 80 | 0.620921323 | 49.67370584 |
6 | 80 | 0.56447393 | 45.1579144 |
7 | 80 | 0.513158118 | 41.05264946 |
8 | 80 | 0.46650738 | 37.32059042 |
9 | 80 | 0.424097618 | 33.92780947 |
10 | 1080 | 0.385543289 | 416.3867526 |
հ | 877.1086579 |
ȣ ̳. ݸ 2% 簡ġ 130 ̰ .
ĸ ̷ ٲָ ȴ.
2 =(1/(1+0.1))^2
, ¯ ̸ ''̶ ̸ ƿ ó ǵ ٲٸ ˾Ƽ ش.
2 =(1/(1+))^2
ƽðڴ°? ݸ ġ äǰ ϴ? 簡ġ ̴. ͷ ä ݴ δٴ Ű...
, ̷ ݿ ġ . Ʈ .
⼭ ¯ ϰ ʿϴ.
2 - Ʈ ġ
ι° ٽ ° .
Ʈ 4 ε 忡 ŷȴٰ Ѵ. ٵ ü 1 3õ ϰ 500 10 ǰ ִٰ Ѵ. Ʈ ϱ ϱ ϱ?
, ù° ΰ ִ. ä̶ ڻ ݻ ͷ ȭ ɼ ڻ ܿġ ʾҴٴ Ŵ.
ͷ ȭ 8% 10%, 12% ų þ 强 Ѵ. , Ʈ ų 1 3õ ƴ϶ 3~5% ִµ ̷ 簡ġ Ϸ 3~5% ؾ Ѵٴ ̴.
, 10⵿ Ѵٰ ؼ Ʈ ʴ´. 10 ͵ и ԽѾ Ѵ. װ ܿġ Ѵ.
ΰ ̷ 簡ġ ϴ .
1. 10Ⱓ 帧 Ѵ. (Ʈ 帧̶ , 100% ȯ ִ Ӵ ִ. , ְ ִ ȴ.)
2. 1 帧 äǿ 簡ġ ش. ( , Ȱ ݾ ̶簡 ȸä ä ͷ ϸ ȴ. Ʈ ڻ ŭ ֱ 3⸸ ä ͷ شϴ 5% 3% ٿ 8% .)
3. ܿġ ϰ 簡ġ ش. (ܿġ .)
4. ε ܿġ 10Ⱓ 帧 ڻ ġ Ѵ.
5. ̷ Ʈ ڻ갡ġ ߿ ŷǴ ð θ ǴѴ.
, 100% Ʈ ų (帧) ִ.
N = 1 Ӵ * (1+·)^N
· ٸ ϸ ش Ʈ ġ ų ߰ ִ , Ӵ Ѵ. , 帧 ٸ 帧 ̶ ִ.
ܿġ ϴ .
ܿġ = 10 * (1 + ) / ( - )
Ʈ 10 Ѵٴ Ŵ. ٰ 100ġ~Ѵ ϱ 11 ϰ ŭ ܿġ Ѵٴ ̴.
, 10 1̾ 3% ̶ 11 .
11 = 100,000,000 * (1+0.03) = 103,000,000
̰ ܿġ ȯϱ 5% 3% 2% (0.02) ָ...
100,000,000 * (1+0.03) / (0.05 - 0.03) = 5,150,000,000
̰ ٽ 10 ָ ε ܿġ ִ. ⼭ ؾ 5% ؼ 10 5% ƴ϶ Ŵ. ش翬 ´ٴ ̴. 10 ̶ ó Ѵ.
(1.05)^10
ε ܿġ ̷ ´.
ε ܿġ =(100000000*(1+0.03)/(0.05-0.03))/1.05^10 = 3,161,653,256
Ʈ ư ܰ躰 غ.
1. 10Ⱓ 帧 Ѵ.
Ʈ ü 13õ̶ ̰ 100% ȯ (500 10) Ӵ ʷ غڴ.
ü | 130,000,000 |
31,200,000 | |
· | 0.03 |
0.08 |
( ̸ صθ ϰ...........?)
1 | 32,136,000 |
2 | 33,100,080 |
3 | 34,093,082 |
4 | 35,115,875 |
5 | 36,169,351 |
6 | 37,254,432 |
7 | 38,372,065 |
8 | 39,523,227 |
9 | 40,708,923 |
10 | 41,930,191 |
հ | 368,403,226 |
⺻ .
1 = *(1+·)^1
⼭ ü 100% 12 (1ġ) Ӵ 31,200,000 ϰ · 3% Ѵ. (1+·)^1 ǹ̴ ų ߰ ӴͿ ؼ ϹǷ شٴ ̴. , 10 .
10 =*(1+·)^10
̷ 10⵿ ϸ 36õ8鸸 ´ٴ Ŵ.
״ ڳĸ...
̷ ġ Ѵ. տ ...
2. 1 帧 äǿ 簡ġ ش. 3⸸ ä ͷ شϴ 5% 3% 8% ڰ ߴ.
ε | ||
1 | 32,136,000 | 29,755,556 |
2 | 33,100,080 | 28,377,984 |
3 | 34,093,082 | 27,064,188 |
4 | 35,115,875 | 25,811,216 |
5 | 36,169,351 | 24,616,253 |
6 | 37,254,432 | 23,476,611 |
7 | 38,372,065 | 22,389,731 |
8 | 39,523,227 | 21,353,170 |
9 | 40,708,923 | 20,364,597 |
10 | 41,930,191 | 19,421,791 |
հ | 368,403,226 | 242,631,096 |
10 ε = 10 / (1+)^10 = 19,421,791
̷ ε 10Ⱓ 24õ2鸸 .
3. ܿġ ϰ 簡ġ ش.
ܿġ =ο * (1+·) / ( - ·) = 400,088,904
(10 ƴ϶ ̸ ڰ տ ʱ ̴. ̰ α ִ ̸ ƽ Ŵ. ̸ ڷ . ڷ ϰ _10 ó underscore ϳ ٿָ ȴ.)
ܿġ 13 2õ6鸸 ̰ ̰ 10 ָ...
ε ܿġ = =ܿġ / (1+)^10 = 185,318,575
ε ܿġ 1 8õ 5鸸 ȴ.
4. ε ܿġ 10Ⱓ 帧 ڻ ġ Ѵ.
ε ܿġ + 10Ⱓ ε = 427,949,671
帧ι Ʈ ڻ갡ġ 43õ ȴ.
5. ̷ Ʈ ڻ갡ġ ߿ ŷǴ ð θ ǴѴ.
ε Կ 4 Ʈ ŷȴٸ 3õ ũ ƴ϶ ̴. ȾƵ ȸ ٴ Ŵ.
3% 8% ϸ д Ʈ ü ⼭ ݰ ϰ ´.
ݴ (.) ϻ Ʈ 9% ÷ƾ ü ¾ƶ. 1% ̾ дʿ ִٴ Ŵ. ϰ ´.
1% 峭 ƴϴ٤.
3 - ġ
簡ġ ؼ ٸ . ϸ ȴ.
̶ / ٵǰ ǰ ǰ ȸ簡 ִ. 2006 3б ֽļ 3,000, 帧 260, 帧 5% ȸ ġ ̰ ִ ȸ ?
ݱ .
ֽļ | 30000000 |
26,008,201,089 | |
帧 | 0.05 |
0.03 | |
0.10 |
⼭ 帧̶ 1Ⱓ (free cash flow) ϰ 帧 ̶ ڷḦ ų ̴ Ÿ.
Ʈ 10 帧 ϰ ʰ 10 ܿġ . Ȱ 5% ϸ ġ Ŀ ڷḦ ϴ ܿġ ϴ .
ũ Ŭ 12% ~ 15% ̶ 10% ܷ ϴ. 强 , 10Ⱓ âɷ° 20% پѴ ROE 10% 14õ ְ ´.
2006 3б 260 ̴ ̸ ʷ 10Ⱓ 帧 ε 帧 ִ.
(: 鸸)
1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | |
帧 | 26,008 | 27,309 | 28,674 | 30,108 | 31,613 | 33,194 | 34,853 | 36,596 | 38,426 | 40,347 |
1.10 | 1.21 | 1.33 | 1.46 | 1.61 | 1.77 | 1.95 | 2.14 | 2.36 | 2.59 | |
帧 | 23,644 | 22,569 | 21,543 | 20,564 | 19,629 | 18,737 | 17,885 | 17,072 | 16,296 | 15,556 |
193,496 |
10 ε 帧 3% ܿġ ϰ 10% ָ ε ܿġ ִ.
ε ܿġ 10Ⱓ 帧 ϸ ġ ´.
ġ ðѾװ ִ ݾ̰ ̸ ٽ ֽļ ִ ġ () Ǵ Ŵ.
ܿġ | 593,681 |
εܿġ | 228,890 |
ġ | 422,386 |
ִġ | 14,080 |
? 12% ÷ ̷ ȴ.
1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | |
帧 | 26,008 | 27,309 | 28,674 | 30,108 | 31,613 | 33,194 | 34,853 | 36,596 | 38,426 | 40,347 |
1.12 | 1.25 | 1.40 | 1.57 | 1.76 | 1.97 | 2.21 | 2.48 | 2.77 | 3.11 | |
帧 | 23,222 | 21,770 | 20,410 | 19,134 | 17,938 | 16,817 | 15,766 | 14,781 | 13,857 | 12,991 |
176,685 |
2% ִ ġ 4õ ̰ .
ܿġ | 461,752 |
εܿġ | 148,672 |
ġ | 325,356 |
ִġ | 10,845 |
ó ִ. ص ´ٸ ش ż ġ ִٴ Ŵ.
2006 12 28 ְ 6,240 ִ簡ġ 10,840 40% ε ŷǰ ִ.
ؿ 忡 Ѹ 2007 Ϲݱ Ÿ ִٴ ȣ簡 ƴϴ ¶ ̴.
ؿ 忡 Ѹ Ÿ α ϸ ƾ ϰ 帧 ÷ƾ ״ ŷ ̼ ƴ .
ø PBR ROE ǥְ Բ DCF Ѵٸ Ȯ ִ.
PBR ROE ̼δ 2006 3б ġ 9,600̸ DCF ε 10,845 ġ ִ.
----------------------------
2007 2008 İ ñؼ ڸ ǥ ϰ ֽϴ.
14,000 ̻ ̼ǵ ϸ ֽϴ.
...
¥ Դϴ :-)
ä ݸ 8% ϼ̴µ....ڴ 80 ° Ȯ̰... ߱ݸ ݸ 6% ϸ... 6% Ͻ Ÿ...^^ ξ ɵ.
Ʈ ǹ ...Ʈ ʾƵ Ӵ ִ° ƴ... Ʈ ܿġ = 10 + º + ǹ - ǹ - öź ոϵ...^^
İ а ϰ ְ ...
оϴ.
־µ ּż մϴ^^
մϴ. ſ ^^
¥Ͻ ¥¥ ε̳^^;鿩ֽű ߺҽϴ.
ϰ ͽϴ.. м մϴ..
° ǥ äDZݸ 10% ϼ̴µ, 100̾ ʳ? ó ÷ϴ.^^
10⸸ 8% ̴ϴ^^
3,120̶ Ǽ ִ ñϳ. ŸŰ 4̰ ü 13õ , ٸ д̳, ϻ꿡 ִ Ʈ ϸ 20 Ʈ Դϴ. 3,120̶ 4 (Ʈ )Ͽ 1 3õ ø ִٴ 䵥... 䰡?
100% ٴ ͻԴϴ. 13õ ٸ Ͽ ִ ص ǰ Ǹ ϰ ġ ̰.
100% ̷лδ ġԴϴ. ֺ 100% е鵵 ʴϴ.