KEY POINTݸ λ ̽ - ߵ ϸ鼭 Ŀ.'' ȸ ϰ 췮 ִ.ǮƼ , , 췮 30 ƴ.
ð 鸮 ִ. ݸ λ ̽ Ǵ 7 ̽-ȷŸ º ߹ϸ鼭 Ҿ ִ.
9(ð) ̱ S&P 500 ְ 5.89%, 6.67% ϶ߴ. ڽǴ 10 9.96%, ڽ 16.8% ϶ߴ. Ǵ.
ȸ? ΰ ߱ϴ ''
Ŀ ŷµ 鵵 ִ. ְ ϶ϸ鼭 ġ ֽĵ̴. ְ ϶ ż ִ ȸ ش.
ġ Ʈ ֽ ս ߱ ִ '' س´. ںͷ ͼͷ ߷ Ʈ̴. ( ȭϱ ںͷ ROA, ͼͷ PER ü ִ.)
־ ڿ ͷ ( ںͷ, ROA), ݿ ŷǴ( ͼͷ, PER) ߷ ִٴ ġ ִ. Ʈ " ںͷ ɼ " ںͷ ߴ.
Ʈ ȰϿ ݵ 'ij' 1985 2005 20Ⱓ 40% ϴ ŵ״.
Joel's Top 30
Ʈ ȰϿ ֽ̱ ߴ. ROA PER ̴. 10 , ðѾ 100 ̻, ROA 15% ̻ ּ οߴ. (2023 2б ȯ 繫, 2023.10/9 )
ǮƼ (PHM), ȣ(DHI), ҳ븶(WSM), NVR(NVR), Ÿ Ƽ(ULTA), Ž(MAS), (WSO), Ȩ(HD), ö̵ Ƽ(AMAT), ġ(LRCX), ػ罺 νƮ(TXN), KLA(KLAC), (AZO), 㺧(HUBB), WW (GWW), üũ Ʈ Ʈ ũ(CHKP), (SCCO), (ON), 귣(YUM), ϸ (ITW), ̳ (DPZ), 㽬(HSY), Ŀ ƿ(DECK), Ʋ 緹 ͳų(MTD), 콺 ͳų(LII), (GGG), Ƽ(ORLY), н(FAST), (AAPL), (VRSN) Ǿ.
̱ 1 ǮƼ ̴. 18.1% ROA ߴµ 30 ߿ ǿ Ѵ. PER 5.8 1 Ǿ( ROA PER ϰ ̸ ջ Ѵ).
* ǮƼ ΰ (ó : pultegroupinc.com)
ǮƼ ̱ ִ Ǽü ϰ ִ. ͷ ̼ ŷ̴. 2012 ǮƼ ְ 2012 10 ̻ ߴ. ְ ¿ ֽ̱ ڵ ̿ ȸڵǴ ̴.
2 ȣ ǮƼ ðǼ ϰ ִ. ȣ ROA 15.1%, PER 7.4. ȣ 2б 6鸸 ָ ȭ ƴ. ȣ ְ 2012 7.4 ߴ.
ö̵ Ƽ, ġ, ػ罺 νƮƮ, KLA, ݵü 鵵 ټ . ַ ǿ ִµ ݵü Ȳ Ŭ ϰ ִ.
* ݵü EPS, ְ (2023 EPS ġ, 9 )
(ڷ : , ǴƼ)
ũ 30 ԵǾ. ROA (42.5%), ̳ (29.6%) 28.3% ߴ. PER (30.1) 29.5踦 ռ 29 ӹ. ROA , PER ƾ Ѵ.
30 .com(), .net() ֻ ϴ ȸ ؿ α 'Compounding Quality' Ұ 췮ϴ.(Compounding Quality ũ, λ ȷο ϴ α״.)
ǰ ȸ Ұƴµ 2022 帧 (FCF/Sales) 56.4%, ںͷ(ROIC) 176.2%, IPO 15.8% ߴ.
* Compounding Quality Ұ (ó : Compounding Quality, "Investing Cheat Sheet", 2023 10 10, https://www.compoundingquality.net/p/investing-cheat-sheet)
ּ ο Ʈ Ǹ 췮 Ʈ ش. Ȱϸ ִ.
Ȱ
ٽ ġ ''̴. ġ , ã ƴϴ. ̻ ż ֵ ϴ ̴.
ڷθ ϴ Ʈ Ģ 뷱 ʿϴ. Ʈ 30 Ʈ Ͽ 1Ⱓ 뷱 ϴ õѴ.
״ "̽ ٷ Ⱓ 2~3̸ ϴ" "ּ 3Ⱓ ŵ ִ" ߴ.
Ʈ ''* ںͷ(ROC) = EBIT / (ں+ڻ)* ͼͷ = EBIT / ġ(켱 ðѾ + Ա)
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