| Ʒ Ư ũ(valuewalk.com) 2023 5 31 Դϴ. ֽĿ ǰ Դϴ. Ǵܿ å ο ֽϴ.
" ż ִ."ֱ Ÿ ̴ ְ м ̷ ȴ. Ÿ ü , ְ ⺻ġ 찡 ٰ ߴ.
ְ ų ũ ߴ. Ÿ ó, Ÿ ̱(Morningstar U.S. Market Index) 2023 8.6% ߰, 10 ֱ 16.2% ߴ. ȭDZ 2022 ÷̼ǰ 2023 Ǵ ħü ұϰ .
Ÿ 츮 ̱ ֽĽ ̸ ٰ Ѵ. Žð ȯ , Ƽ ִ ̴" ġ ʸƮ(Research Affiliates) ڻ ְå(CIO) (Jim Masturzo) οߴ.
ٸ ̷ 忡 ڵ ְ żȸ ã ?
ְ ̲
S&P 500 , ְ δ. 2022 10 3,500 ̴ S&P 500 ٽ 4,200 Ʈ ȸϰ ִ. (Covid-19 ҵ ũ2,190 ر ) 2020 3 Ż Ѵ ص, S&P 500 Covid-19 3,300 ũ ´.
ֽĽ ̷ ϸ鼭 ִ ̴. Ÿ κ ֱ Ⱓ ũ ̶ ߴ. Ÿ , "ü ū ϰ ִ ݱ 35% ð 39% ĺ ũ ֽĵ̴. Ϻ ̷ ֵ Ư ٰ ߴ."
δٰ ִ. 177, ĺ 123, 197, Ÿ 263 ŷǰ ִ. ص, ( ְ ) ϰ ڸ, ̵ ֽĵ ְ 2,064 ġƲ ߽ĭ (Chipotle Mexican Grill: NYSE--CMG) .
(ڷ: )
ֽ , ġִ
̷ ְ ұϰ, Ÿ ݵ ż ̶ ִ. Ÿ "Ÿ ġ ǥ , ֽ ǻ 9% ̻ Ǿ , ġְ Ư δ. ̷ 10 ũ پ ִ" ߴ.
⼭ ٽ "ġ" ̴. Ÿ 忡 ġְ ٰ ִ.
ֽ ⺻ġ ̸ ġַ . , θ IJ м ġ ִ 20 Ǵߴµ, 忡 ŷǴ ְ 15, ֽ ġֶ ִ.
Ϲ ġִ ڵ鿡 ֽ ֵȴ. ְ ⺻ġ ° Դ. ٷ ̰ " ȿ(market efficiency)"̶ ϴ ̴. ֽ ġ ݿ żϴ ڴ ð 밳 ְ ⺻ġ ִ. ( ̼ ϴ ô뿡 Ϻ ڵ ̷ ȿ̷ ϱ ߴ).
⼭ κ ش ⺻ġ ˾Ƴ ̴.
PER ġ Ǵ
ְ Ǵ ڵ ( ġ ϴٴ ǹϴ ִ), ( 帧 ϴٴ ش), ü/ڵ ְ( ü/ڵ ְ ٴ ġ ٴ ǹѴ) ǥ Ѵ. ڵ Ϲ ǥ ش ְ, PER̴.
PER ִ ְ Ÿ ̴. , ְ 40 غ. 100 ֽ ߰, ۳ 2,000 , ִ 20 ȴ. PER 2 谡 ȴ(ְ 40 ִ 20 = 2).
PER ش ֽĿ 1 ġ Ǵ ִ ǥ. , , 1 ְ 2 ϰ ִ ̴. ٽ , 2 1 ġ ̴.
Ϲ 16谡 PER ֵȴ. ̴ ⺻(ġ) 1 16(, ְ) Ѵٴ ǹѴ. , Ϲ ü Ȥ ü 忡 PER ġַ . ̷ ڻ ٸ ڻ麸 ġ ϱ ٸ ڵ ڻ ø ɼ .
⼭ ٽ Ÿ м ư.
ġֿ ϴ żȸ
ó, Ÿ 忡 ġְ ٰ ִ. ⺻ PER PER(Cyclically Adjusted PER: CAPE)̶ ϴ PER ε ٴ ̴.
CAPE м ֱ ܱ ̷ ε ϱ ֱ ƴ϶ 10 ÷̼ Ѵ. Ÿ ⺻ PER CAPE , "ġ ְ Ǿ ش" ߴ.
ݱ 8.6% Ÿ ̱(Morningstar U.S. Market Index) PER ֱ 12 19.8̴. ̴ 2021 PER 24.2 2022 10 PER 17 ߰ ؿ شѴ... () ġֵ ֿ δ. 18迡 պ PER 15迡 ŷǰ ְ, ֽĵ 16 պ ξ PER 7迡 ŷǰ ִ.
̴ ؿ 쵵 . ﱹ PER 13.5̴.
, ڵ ֽ ġָ ãƾ Ѵٴ ϴ ߿ϴ. ֵ, Ư ֵ δ. Ÿ " ֵ ε, ݸ, , ÷̼ǿ ؼ ſ δ" ߴ. , ̴ ֵ ְ ̹ ⺻ġ ߰ų ̸ Ѿ ɼ ٴ ǹѴ. ְ ũ , ̴ ̵ ְ ġ ٴ ǹѴ.
ִ Ǵ ֽĵ, , ġ ϴ ƴϴ. ̷ ֽ ڵ ݴа PER ֽ ãƾ Ѵ. 忡 ұϰ, ֽĵ 忡 ϸ ٷ ֽ ż ִ.
: ְ , ġִ
Ÿ ֱ м 忡 ִٰ ߴ. ְ , ⺻ġ ְ ʴ. ̴ ڵ鿡 ְ ִ. <>
* ó: SmartAsset, "Looking for Bargain Stocks? Morningstar Says These Are Cheap," 2023 5 31, https://www.valuewalk.com/looking-for-bargain-stocks-morningstar-says-these-are-cheap/
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