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å ̾߱(10) -

Deep Value in 2014
: ƽ Į Tobias Carlisle
ű:
ǻ: ̷̵ / 2021 12 / 447 / 19500




. , ִ ֽκ Ź ø 밡 ڹ 뼺߽ϴ. ؼ Į ĭ, ׸Ʈ, Ŭ ν, ̺ ȥ 밡 ׸ (Դ) ׵ Բ ҰǴ ڵ ڹ ū ̷µ, ̵ δ ġ ƹ, ׷̾ öκ ߴٴ ֽϴ. å Ź 밡鿡 ؼ ׷̾ ħ ݴϴ.

ڴ ׷̾ ֽ ã NCAV Ȱؼ (ڻ)ġ ſ ֽ Ʈ ͸ ũ ̱ ִٰ մϴ. ׸ ڵ ʿ ڵ پ ʸ ϰ ֽϴ.

å , ṵ̋ å ϰ ۡ, ׸ ȿ ̸ ϱ ؼ å Ұ ɴϴ. , 10 ̿ؼ ϴ Ǿ ϴ پ ڵ鿡 ȰǾ Դٴ ʿ 踦 ̿ؼ մϴ.




ֽ-强 ͼ -ö ̷ ֽ ڿ ū Ȱݴϴ. ſ ܼ ڹ ߳ ϱ ƽϴ.

ſ 򰡵 ֽ ϴ ܼ Ʈ ͷ ø ־ , عٴڿ ȸ ൿڵ Ȱ ־ϴ.

ൿڵ ŷ ֽ ǥ , 뷮 , 缺 Դϴ. ׵ ̷ ֽ ߰ϸ 缺 ̰ ϰ ν 簡ġ ÷ ؼմϴ.

1, ĭ
۳⿡ Ϸ ӽũ Ʈ͡ μ Ȯϰ Ʈ ֽ ν ū ø Ȱ Į ĭ å ΰԴϴ. ൿǴ ȭο ׷̾(1894)κ ۵Ǿ ޼ ؼ ﵵ һϴ ĭ(1936) ڸ ̾޾Ҵٰ ִµ. ̸ ϰ ǥ űϴ.

ĭ ׷̾ ö ޾Ƶ̰ Ȱ 򰡵 ֽĿ ־. 򰡵 ֽĿ ָ п ״ Ī ޼ ־, ڽ å ־. ڷμ ĭ ȭ ൿ ȭ ſó ݿѴ. (p.22)

ĭ , 1976
Ȳ 1970 ߹ ġ鼭 ֽ ġ ũ 򰡵 ¿ ־ϴ. ħ ̱ ӷ ֽ ߴ ṉ̃⵵ .

ĭ ݵ带 ̿ Ͱŷ ÷ȴ 򰡵 ֽ ̿ؼ Ͱŷ ϰڴٴ ھȳ ֵ鿡 ϴ. ĭ ۰ ũ Ƽ콺 ̸ ĭ ̶ ̸ ٿϴ.

츮 '򰡵' ֽĿ ũ ش ִٴ Դϴ.
1. 濵 ȸ縦 ûϰų '' Űϵ Ѵ.
2. 븮(proxy war, ) δ.
3. ż Ѵ.
4. ȸ翡 Ǵ. – ׸Ϸ ˷ ҹ! (p.33)

ڱ Ϲ ֵμ Ŀ ε Դϴ. ׷, ̷ ߻ϸ ִ ȸ ˴ϴ. Ǵ ൿڵ ɼ ؼ ̸ żصδ Ȱ ְڰ.


츮󿡼 ൿǴ ۵Ǿ ׵ ̹߽ϴ. ׷, ӵ ֽϴ. 2 ־ öƮ M&A и ؼ Ÿߴ ̹ ż Ϲ ֵ б 絵 ż Դϴ.

ġ â ׷̾ ൿ ̱⵵ ߴµ. ׷̾ ൿڷ ϵ ȸ 濵 ð 濵ڰ ̿ ϴ ൿ ϴ Դϴ.

ִ ̻ȸ ϴ ൿ , ȸ ӿ ַμ ڽ Ǹ Ѵ. , ƴ ϴ ü ֽ ƴ϶ '濵'̶ ̴.
- ׷̾, м, p.50

2, ߻ ڵ
1934 ' м' Ⱓ ׷̾ 1920 ڿ 1929 Ȳ ¾ Ļ 򿡼  ̾ϴ. ̷ ׷̾ Ͽ 簡ġ ְ ϰ Ǿ, NCAV(Net Current Asset Value: ڻ갡ġ(*)) ϰ ˴ϴ
* ڻ갡ġ(NCAV) = ڻ(ڻ꿡 ڻ ) – ä Ѿ

׷̾ ðѾ NCAV 3 2 ż ҽϴ. ϴ -ٸ ǥ û갡ġ- ˴ϴ. ٸ , ' ' ߿伺 մϴ.

ε ΰ 縦 '̰ ' 忡 Ƴ´. ó ؾ Ѵٸ 츮 ''̶ ̴. ռ ̷ Ǹ ϴ ϰ . (p.66)

׷̾ ' м' ġ ΰ ŷǴ ֽ 밳 ߼ ϱ Ǵ߽ϴ. ̷ ֽ ְ 簡ġ ø ؼ 濵 ü, Ű Ǵ û մϴ.

ݸ鿡 ' '̶ , Ŭ󸸰 ׷̾ û갡ġ ϴ ׷̾ ڹ ϴ ڻ갡ġ Ѵٴ ǰ ֽϴ.

! ڻ갡ġ ſ ޴-å ̸ ֽĿ ϴ-NCAV ̷ ˴ϴ.

ָ ̸ 1971~1983, 13 NCAV ϴ ֽĵ ų żؼ 1Ⱓ ϰ üϴ ռͷ 29.4%( Ⱓ 11.5%) Խϴ. ǥ ֽ ۾ 18 89 żߴٰ մϴ.

ڴ 1984 2008 25 ߰ 35.3%( 22.4%) ׷̾ NCAV ȿϴٴ Ȯ߽ϴ. ϴ ֽ 1984 13, 2002 152 , ؿٰ ϳ׿.

ڴ Ϻ, ȿ Ȯ߰ ӽ Ƽ 1985~2007 - ֽ Ʈ żϴ ؼ ϰ ̱ ͷ øٴ Ȯ߽ϴ.

Ȯ NCAV ȿ 밳 ֶ Ѱ谡 ־ٰ ϴµ. ׷ٸ, ڱ ϴ Ϲ ڵ鿡Դ ǡ Ѵٴ ޾Ƶ ֽϴ.

ϰ ְ 뿡 𸣴 ֽ ū Ȱִ ڴ ȸ(mean reversion) ִٰ մϴ.

Һ Ȳ 'Ҹϰ' ؾ Ѵٰ ϴ ڿ. Һ ؼ ݴ ̴. ׷ ̷ 밳 ũ ߸ Ǹȴ. ų Ȳ ӵ ʴ´.


̰ Ϲ Ư شȴ. پ ȸϷ ں ̴ (corrective forces) ۿѴ.
- ׷̾, м, p.86

3, : ûο 濵ڷ
1956 ׷̾ ڹ 鼭 濵 ʾҴ ׷̾ ޸ ֽ ߰ 濵 մϴ.

1959 ۰Ÿ ۰ ڻ꿡 ϴ ڿ Ϳ ϴ ڷ ϰ ˴ϴ. Ⱑ 1963 Ƹ߽ ڿ ⵵ ְ. 1967 տ ȭ ڽ ڰ ϴ. 7° å, ' , ⺻ Ģ' ִ ̹Ƿ ο빮 Ϻθ űϴ.

ڸ ϴ ǰ 򰡿 ΰ Բ մϴ. м ش ο ġϴ ' ˾Ƽ ״ (, , 濵 ) Ѵ' մϴ. ݸ鿡 м ϴ 'ȸ(ֽ) ˾Ƽ Ǯ ״ ݿ Ѵ' մϴ. (p.107)

1983 ũ ֿ ּѿ 簡ġ ׷̾ ޶ ϴ.

ôμ ΰġ ϱ , 簡ġ 꿡 ʿ ְ ( ߿)Ǵ Ե ʴ ڷ ǥ Դϴ. ΰġ 簡ġ ǹ̰ ũ ٸٴ ϴ ߿մϴ.

ΰġ ȸ , ں(contributed capital) (retained earnings) ߻ 繫 Ժ(financial input) ݴϴ. 簡ġ , ġ ̷ 帧 ġԴϴ. , ΰġ 󸶳 ԵǾ ˷ְ 簡ġ 󸶳 ִ ְ մϴ. (p.115)

ũ ġ ΰġ ( ) 򰡹 ߴٰ ߴµ. ڻ ġ ϸ鼭 á غϴ.

ڴ Ѿٰ ϸ鼭, ġ ƹ̸ ׷̾ پ û ݴϴ.

׷̾ ' Ȳ ȸϴ , ں ̴ ۵Ѵ' ߴ. ׷̾ ϸ鼭, پ п ׷̾ ¿ ϰ ROIC ޼ϴ ִٰ Ͼ. (p.127)

4, μ
1981 п , ׸Ʈ ׷̾ NCAV ̿ؼ 6(1972~1978) Ⱓ 忡 10% ̻ ʰͷ ÷ Ȯϴµ.  Ư¡ ߰ ߴٰ մϴ.

2005 ׸Ʈ ROE(return on equity: ڱںͷ) ֽĿ ϴ ̶鼭 ROE ROC(return on capital: ںͷ) ؼ ROC ̿ؼ 17(1988~2004) ߽ϴ. ROC 忡 18.4%(30.8% - 12.4%) ʰͷ ø ɴϴ.

ڴ ̴ 깰 ɼ ְ ġ ְ ԵǾǷ Ȱؼ ̱ ƴٴ ǽ ǰ մϴ. S&P500 Ե ʴ ϰ 48(1964~2011) ռͷ 13.9%, S&P500 10.5% ̰ ̴ ׸Ʈ ʹ ̰ ־ϴ.

׸Ʈ ijŻ ϸ鼭 ROC EY(earnings yield: ͼͷ) 20(1985~2005) 40%  ͷ ø ̹Ƿ ȥ ϴ.

ȸ ROC ֽ ROC ־ ͷ ǹǷ ROC ڻ갡ġ ֽĿ ϴ ϴٴ ٰ ϴµ. ̿ ؼ Ŭ ν پ Ȯݴϴ.

ݴ پ , ְ ̹ ݴ ݿߴٸ ͷ ̴. , ̱ ֽ ãƳ´ٰ ؼ ޴ ƴϴ. ߸ Ű ֽ ߱ؾ ִ. ݴа ̸ ϴ ھ迡 ̴.
– ο: Ŭ ν, Ƿ , p.167

5, ġ ۵ϴ
ᱹ Ƿ ֽĽ  Ǵ ó Դϴ. ׷̾ ' м' ȣƼ콺 , ߶ Ͼ ̰, ߶ ̴١ ̴ ȸ ϱ ؼ ϴµ.

3 ͷ Ҵ ֽ() 3 Ҵ ֽ() ö󰡸 3 ÷ȴ ֽ 3 ֽ Ȯ ֽϴ.

ġ ϰ ׷ ߿ ġ ᱹ ְ ġ ݿϰ ˴ϴ. GNP ݸ ؿ ̴ ֽϴ.

м ϸ, 17(1964~1981) GNP 373% ڸ(Dow: 874 -> 875) ı 17(1981~1998) GNP 177% (875 -> 9,181) ̻ ߴµ, ݸ() ã ֽϴ.

17 ⱹä ݸ 1964⸻ 4.2% 1981⸻ 13.6% 3 ̻ ı 17 1981⸻ 13.6% 1998 5.1% ϶ߴµ, ֽĽ ٴ ݸ ޴ .


FRB رݸ  Ŷ ӿ ⷷŸ ۱ ֽĽ Ȳ Ʋ ϴ. ӵ巹 ڽ (ߴܱ)ü = + ɸ ߴµ, ⼭ ǹϴ ݸ ִٴ ǹѴٴ 츮 ̷ ۿ Ϸְ ־ϴ.

1999 ּѿ ݸ ̼ 迡 մϴ.

߷ ۿϵ ݸ ̼ǿ ۿѴ. , ݸ ̼  . (p.188)

6, ġֺ α: ձ
ձ ÷ ν 򰡵(PER) ڻ ֽ ġ ̿ؼ (PER) ֽ μմϴ. ġ μ ̸ ̿ؼ ٸ ֽ μϴ ġ ҷϴ. ݸ dz ̸ ϰ ǰ 鼭 Ѷ ϴ.

׷̾ ' м' 1934⿡ ̹ ¿ ǰ ֽĿ , پ ݵ 'ο ô', ű ϴ մϴ.

' ֽ' ƹ ص ڶ ϴ 'ο ô' Ģ, δ '' ̸ dz ոȭϴ ܿ Ұϴ. (p.224)

7, Į ִ°
( ̼ ֽ żϴ)߻ ġ ͷ մϴ.

Ⱓ(1963~1990) 5 ͷ , ߻ ġ ͷ α ͷ ũ ռϴ. , 帧, ,  ־ αְ ߻ ġֿ ռ αִ ġ ξ α ͷ ġֿ ˴ϴ.

߻ ġֿ Ʈ Ʈ ͷ ռ ߿ ͷ ռ ɴϴ.

ͽ ʿ췮 ROE ̶ ֽϴ. ̵ ð 鼭 ROE 鼭 ͷ ϶ϴ ϴ. ſ ſ ٴ ͷ Ȯ ֽϴ.

ڴ ׷̾ 1976 ͺ 4 ̹ 7忡 οߴµ. ͺ信 ׷̾ پ ġ ȸ ã ̻ Ǻм ȣ ʴ´ٰ ϴ. NCAV ü Ծ ŷ ְ ̶ մϴ.

εݵ â , ׷̾ ͺ信 ̻ Ǻм ȣ ʴ´١ ۱Ϳ εݵ塯 ǹѴٰ ߴµ. ؼ ?^^

ٸٶ ȸ͸ ϸ鼭 α 迡 Ǹ ִ ġ մϴ.

żϰ ְ ø ̶ 븦 ϴ. ְ 濵 ̹ ݿǾ ɼ ̱ ̴. ְ Ÿϴٸ (׸ ̾ ϰ ִٸ) ū ð Ұ ̾ ִٴ ̴.


, ġ ¶ ʳ ޼ϴ ɼ ִ. ʰ ͷ ޼ϴ ϳ, ̴. (p.297)

8,
1970~80 ũ 򰡵 M&A Ȱϴ Ƽ 1960 򰡵 ũŸ μϴ ʸ Ҽ ְ մϴ.

, ֽġ ij Ҹ 鼭 Ȯϰ ־ űϴ.

ֽ ֽ PER Ƽ, ͷ Ƽ, Ƽ ƴϴ. ̷ ǥ DZ , ǹ ̶ֽ ֽ ְ 繫ǥ м û갡ġ(, 簡ġ) ̴ֽ. ׷ ֽĸ ش.
– ũ ұ, , , p.15

9, ѴϹ ¸ Ȱ
1970 Į ĭ ൿǴ ӵǾµ, 2000  ȸ ߰մϴ.

ĭ ൿ ǥ ݴ Ŵν ͷ ø 缺 Ȯ븦 ̲ ν, ġ ֽ ְ øϴ.

10, ϱ
ൿڵ ǥ ֱ ְ ϰ, ̼ , , ȸ , ٷ ׷̾ NCAV Ȱ Դϴ.

̵ ֿ 濵 ̿ å ؼ ִ, 븮 δ ū. 濵 ɼ ִ ׿ ؼ ڻ ø ;ϴ ݸ ֵ ׿ ȸϱ⸦ ϱ Դϴ.

ൿڴ ̷ μϰų 濵 йؼ 缺 ̰ 簡ġ ؼ 尡ݰ Դϴ.

Ӱ ROE ãƳµ Ź ɷ ؼ ROE ֽĿ ؼ ø ֽϴ. Ͱ ɷ Ϲ ڵ ġֿ ϸ ǰ ֽϴ. װ ٷ ġ ֽĿ ϴ Դϴ.



å 8° å Ұߴ, '! ֽϴ' ļ Ȥ ٸ ְ ʷ Ҽ ̷Ӱ ϴ ׷ϴ.

'! ֽϴ' ؼ 򰡵 ֽ ġ ︮ ø ൿ Ȱ ٷٸ å ܼ ֽĿ ϴ ͸ε ൿڵ Ȱ 鼭 庸 ξ ͷ ø ִ ݴϴ. װ װ ƴϳİ? ~ ɷ ſ ۿ ׿^^

̸ 1970~2010 踦 мؼ ־ ֽ ְ øٴ ȴµ. ڴ ̸ ϰ ִµ, å ڿ ְ ; ڽ ǥ ϴ.

߰; ֽĵ ߿ ߰; ֽ ְ ͷ âѴٴ иϴ. (p.274)

ROE ڹ κ ڵ ׷ ڸ Ƿ ֿ ϴ ڹ ٰ մϴ. δ ڰ ROE ں ͷ ִٰ ϴ ġǴ 鼭 ȥ ֽϴ.

å õϰ ; ܼ ġ ֽ ͸ ũ ռ ͷ ø ִٴ 忡 ߱ Դϴ. å αֿ ϱ ٴ ġ ֽ żϸ ̱ ִٴ Ȯ ݴϴ. ׷鼭 ڸ ʴ ֽ ͷ ø ִٴ Ǿٰ ̸ ϰ ϰ ʾҽϴ.

ڰ ϴ ڻ갡ġ ſ ֽĸ Ʈ ϴ ͺٴ ڻ ǥ θ ϴ PBR̸鼭 PER ֽ Ʈ ϸ鼭 ̱ ڰ ϰڴٴ غҽϴ. 츮 ֽĽ忡 ̷ ֽĵ ϱ.

ŷڰ ָ鼭- ͸ - ֽ ⸸ ϸ Ѵٴ ҿܰ ô޸鼭 ٸ ϻ ġڵ鿡Դ ū ⸦ ݴϴ.

å ̾߱ ø ϸ鼭 ݺϰ Ǵµ, ൿǰ ϻ ̱ Ȳ 鼭 츮 ƽϸ鼭 츮 嵵 ߼ ִٴ ߰ϰ 밨 մϴ.

ٸ ں 濵 и ֽȸ簡 Ϲ ̱ -븮 ̶ 츮 (ū)-() ܰ ƾ ̷ 翡 ũ þ ֵ Ѵٸ ֽ ηִ 츮 ֽĽ û ȸ ̶ غϴ.


Ư Ҵ ۱

 ڻ̵ ڰ ϴ ͷ ä ͷ DZ ̴. ä ݸ ٸ ڻ ڻ ͷ ߾ Ǿ Ѵ. ݴ, ä ݸ װ ٸ ڻ о ø.
- , 1999 ּ, p.188

κ Ȳ ϰ ȮǼ Ȯ ̱ Ѵ. ׷ 밳 ȮǼ . ȮǼ ؼҵ ̸ ɼ .


ڴ 밳 Ϻ ٰŷ Ǵ , ȮǼ ޴´. ٸ ڵ ױ ϴ ð ٰ Ȯ ݿ ż ִ ȸ ִ.
- Ŭ, , p.294

ȸ ɼ ұϰ ġ ȸͰ Ͼ ɼ ó ű. ٷ ̰ ڸ ͼ ̷ο . (p.299)

* ڿ ǥõ ڴ å Դϴ.

ۼǾϴ. ۿ ޵ õ ϴٴ ݵ ּ. Ǵܿ å ο ֽϴ.

۱ڨ ġ ã ħ, (itooza.com)




ƮƮ ũα (0) ֱֱ(1)
:
|

 Ѹ ( 3)

  1. ݰ
    ݰ | 23.03/09 08:52
    |
    մϴ ^^
    ۾
    • | 23.03/09 13:44
      ^^
  2. â
    â | 23.03/09 10:06
    |


    ڻ߿ ڻ ڻ ڱ Ѻ ϴ.
    ڻ 66% dz׿.

    ̸ ڻ꿡 åϱ⵵ ư ׷ٰ Ѻ Ը ū ڻ ϱ⵵
    ڻ ȸ ְ, ڻ ҷ ΰ  ִ°̶ ׷ε

    ׷ ش ֻ Ȱ ־ ִ ڻ̶

    ָմϴ.



    -׷̾ 簡ġ Ŀ ٸ

    ڻ갡ġ(NCAV) = ڻ(ڻ꿡 ڻ ) – ä Ѿ

    ڻ ڻ꿡 ڻ ε...̳ ڱ ڻ

    ڻ꿡 ϴ° Ҷ ´

    Źϴ.
    ۾
    • | 23.03/09 13:44
      å ϸ鼭 ִµ. ڻ Ͻ ڻ ΰڽϴ. ֽ , ׷̾ NCAV Ȱ ʰ ü ڻ, BPS ְ PBR ϴ. å ġ ִٰ (ڻ)ġ ſ ֽ ǥǴ ҿܵ ġָ żϸ ̱ٴ Ȯ ִٰ ұ Դϴ. 츮 ൿ Ȱ ̹Ƿ ġ ŷµ ְ. 220
  3. â
    â | 23.03/09 15:36
    |
    ! 亯 մϴ.

    ġ ſ ֽ ãⰡ , İ  ̴ ϴ.

    ׿ ֻ мغ ̰ ϱ.

    Ͻ ൿǰ ȭ Ǿ 򰡵 ֻ縦

    ٰͼ ֵ , ϴ ȯ մϴ.
    ۾

* HTML ± Ͻ ϴ.

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