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- º¥Àú¹Î ±×·¹À̾öÀÇ 1929³â ´ë°øÈ²
1929³â ±×·¹À̾öÀº ±×º¸´Ù 24¼¼ ´õ ¸¹Àº ¹ö³ªµå ¹Ù·çÅ©¿Í ¸¸³³´Ï´Ù. ¹Ù·çÅ©´Â ÀÌ¹Ì ¶Ù¾î³ ÅõÀÚÀÚÀÌ¸é¼ Á¤Ä¡°¡·Î ¸í¼ºÀ» ¶³Ä¡°í ÀÖ¾ú´Âµ¥¿ä. ¹Ù·çÅ©´Â ±×·¹À̾öÀ» °í¿ëÇÒ Àǻ簡 ÀÖ¾úÁö¸¸, Á¶°ÇÀÌ ¸ÂÁö ¾Ê¾Æ¼ ÀÌ·ç¾îÁöÁö ¾Ê¾Ò½À´Ï´Ù.
ÀÌ ÀÚ¸®¿¡¼ µÎ »ç¶÷Àº ´ç½Ã ÁֽĽÃÀåÀÇ °úµµÇÑ »ó½Â°ú Åõ±â²ÛµéÀÇ ±¤¶õÇÏ´Â ¸ð½À, À¯¸í ÅõÀÚÀºÇàµéÀÇ Èïû¸Áû°Å¸²°ú °°Àº ¸ðµç »óȲÀÌ °©ÀÛ½º·± Æø¶ô»çÅÂ¿Í ÇÔ²² ³¡³¯ °ÍÀ̶ó´Â µ¥ ÀǰßÀ» °°ÀÌÇÕ´Ï´Ù.
³ª´Â ¹Ù·çÅ©°¡ ´ç½ÃÀÇ ºñÁ¤»óÀûÀÎ »óȲÀ» ²¿ÁýÀ¸¸é¼ ¿¬¸® 8%ÀÇ ±âÇѺΠ´ëÃâÀ» ¹Þ¾Æ °Ü¿ì 2%ÀÇ ¹è´ç±ÝÀ» Áö±ÞÇÏ´Â ÁÖ½ÄÀ» »ç´Â »çŸ¦ ÁöÀûÇß´ø °ÍÀ» ±â¾ïÇÑ´Ù. ±× ¸»¿¡ ´ëÇØ ³ª´Â ÀÌ·¸°Ô ´ë´äÇß´Ù.
¸Â½À´Ï´Ù. º¸»óÀÇ ¹ýÄ¢¿¡ µû¶ó ¿ì¸®´Â ¾ðÁ¨°¡ ±× ¹Ý´ëµÇ´Â »óȲ, Áï ¿¬¸® 2%ÀÇ ±âÇѺΠ´ëÃâÀ» ¹Þ¾Æ 8%¸¦ ¹è´çÇØÁÖ´Â ¿ì·®ÁÖ¿¡ ÅõÀÚÇÏ´Â °Íµµ ¿¹»óÇØ¾ß ÇÕ´Ï´Ù.
That¡¯s true, and by the law of compensation we should expect someday to see the reverse-2 percent time-money combined with an 8 percent dividend on good stocks.
¹Ù·çÅ©´Â ÅõÀÚÇÑ ÁÖ½ÄÀ» ¸ðµÎ Çö±ÝÈÇÏ¸é¼ À§±â¸¦ ÇÇÇßÁö¸¸ ±×·¹À̾öÀº 1929³âºÎÅÍ 1932³â±îÁö ´ë°øÈ²ÀÇ ¾î·Á¿î ½Ã±â¸¦ °í½º¶õÈ÷ ´çÇØ¾ß Çß½À´Ï´Ù. ±×¸®°í ±×ÀÇ ¿¹¾ðÀº 20³â Áö³ ´ÙÀ½ ¿ÏÀüÈ÷ ´Ù¸¥ ½ÃÀåȯ°æ ¾Æ·¡¿¡¼ Á¤È®ÇÏ°Ô ÀÔÁõµË´Ï´Ù. À̶§ ±×·¹À̾öÀº ´ë°øÈ² ½Ã±â¿¡ ¾î¸®¼®°Ô ´ëóÇß´ø ÀÚ½ÅÀÇ ÇൿÀ» ȸ»óÇÕ´Ï´Ù.
Áö±Ý µÇµ¹¾Æº¼ ¶§ Á¤¸» ÀÌ»óÇÑ °ÍÀº ³»°¡ ±×·± »óȲÀ» ¾ÆÁÖ ½É°¢ÇÏ°Ô ¿¹°ßÇßÀ½¿¡µµ ºÒ±¸Çϰí, ³ªÀÇ ÆÝµå°¡ óÇÏ°Ô µÉ À§ÇèÀº ¹Ìó ÀνÄÇÏÁö ¸øÇß´Ù´Â Á¡ÀÌ´Ù.
What seems really strange now is that I could make a prediction of that kind in all seriousness, yet not have the sense to realize the dangers to which I continued to subject the Account¡¯s capital.
´ë°øÈ²ÀÌ ÀϾ´ø, 1929³â 35¼¼ÀÇ º¥Àú¹Î ±×·¹À̾öÀº ÀÌ¹Ì ¶Ù¾î³ ÅõÀÚÀڷμ ¸í¼ºÀÌ ³ô¾Ò°í ±×·¡¼ ´ç´ë ÃÖ°íÀÇ ÅõÀÚÀÚ¿´´ø ¹ö³ªµå ¹Ù·çÅ©ÀÇ µ¿¾÷ Á¦¾ÈÀ» ¹ÞÀ» Á¤µµ¿´½À´Ï´Ù. ÇÏÁö¸¸ ¹öºíÀÌ ÁøÇàµÇ´Â µ¿¾È¿¡´Â (¹Ù·çÅ©¿Í ´ëÈÇÏ¸é¼ ´ç½Ã Áõ½Ã »óȲ¿¡ ´ëÇÑ Çö¸íÇÑ ÆÇ´ÜÀ» ÇÏ°í¼µµ)¹Ìó Å»ÃâÇÒ »ý°¢À» ÇÏÁö ¸øÇß´ø °ÍÀÌÁÒ.
1929³âºÎÅÍ 1932³â±îÁö ±×·¹À̾öÀÌ ¿î¿ëÇÑ ÆÝµå´Â 70% ÀÌ»ó ¼Õ½ÇÀ» º¸¾Ò°í 1933³â 50% ¼öÀÍÀ» ¾òÀ¸¸é¼ ȸ»ýÇÒ ¶§±îÁö 4³â µ¿¾È Èûµç ½Ã±â¸¦ º¸³À´Ï´Ù. ´ç½Ã¸¦ ȸ»óÇÏ´Â ±×·¹À̾öÀÇ ¸»¾¸À» ¸¶Áö¸· ±Û·Î ºÙÀÔ´Ï´Ù.
³ªÀÇ ±«·Î¿òÀº Àç»êÀÌ ÁÙ¾îµé¾ú±â ¶§¹®ÀÌ ¾Æ´Ï¶ó, Áö·çÇÑ Àå±âÀü°ú ÇÔ²² ½ÃÀåÀÌ µ¹¾Æ¼¹´Ù°í »ý°¢ÇßÁö¸¸ ´Ù½Ã Ãß¶ôÇÒ ¶§¸¶´Ù µÇÇ®À̵Ǵ ½Ç¸Á, ´ë°øÈ²°ú ¼Õ½ÇÀÌ ¾ðÁ¦ ³¡³¯ °ÍÀΰ¡ ÇÏ´Â °Í¿¡ ´ëÇÑ ±Ã±ØÀûÀÎ ºÒÈ®½Ç¼º ¶§¹®À̾ú´Ù.
The chief burden on my mind was not so much the actual shrinkage of my fortune as the lengthy attrition, the repeated disappointments after the tide had seemed to turn, the ultimate uncertainty about whether the Depression and the losses would ever come to an end.
ÁÖ½ÄÅõÀÚÇϱ⿡ ¸Å¿ì ¾î·Á¿î ½Ã±â¸¦ Áö³ª°í ÀÖ½À´Ï´Ù. À§´ëÇÑ ÅõÀÚÀÚ, ±×·¹À̾öµµ ¾öû³ ½Ç¼ö¸¦ Çß°í Èûµç ½Ã±â¸¦ °Þ¾ú°í °á±¹ À̰ܳ´ٴ »ç½ÇÀ» º¸¸é¼ À§·Î ¹ÞÀ¸¼ÌÀ¸¸é ÇÕ´Ï´Ù.
¿ì¸®´Â ½ÇÆÐÇßÀ» ¶§ ¼Õ½ÇÀ» ÃÖ¼ÒÈÇϰí Àß ÇßÀ» ¶§ ¼öÀÍÀ» ¸¹ÀÌ °¡Á®°¡·Á´Â ³ë·ÂÀ» °è¼ÓÇÏ¸é µË´Ï´Ù. ½Ç¼ö¿¡¼ ¹è¿ì´Â, ½ÃÇàÂø¿À´Â ´ç¿¬ÇÑ °ÍÀ¸·Î ¹Þ¾ÆµéÀ̰í Àå±âÀûÀ¸·Î ½ÃÀåÀº ¿ì»óÇâÀ̶ó´Â °ÍÀ» ¹Ï°í¼ °íÁý½º·¹ ÁֽĺñÁßÀ» À¯ÁöÇÏ´Â ¹æ½ÄÀ¸·Î ¸»ÀÌÁÒ. Èû ³À½Ã´Ù^^
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Âü°í: º¥Àú¹Î ±×·¹À̾ö, [º¥Àú¹Î ±×·¹À̾ö Benjamin Graham in 1996]
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