Ʈ ̺ What Works on Wall Street, 4E in 2012
: ӽ ʽ James
P. O\'Shaughnessy
ű: ̰ 8
ǻ: ع̵ / 814 / 2021-12 / 35,000
ռ а İ Ƽ Ͻ [ĵƮ ڱ] õ ȯ ĵ Ʈ ̶̺ 縦 ٿµ. å ƿ å Ʈ ̺Դϴ. 814ʿ ϴ å ǿ ̰ 8 ߰
û ڷḦ Ǿٴ ̺ մϴ.
ġ ̾ Ʈڶ ϵ ġڴ Ʈڿ ϴ
κ ϴ. ǥ ֽĵ Ʈ . ٸ 뿡 ־ и ̴ ֽϴ.
[ ġ],
ȯ [ ִ! Ʈ] ڰ Ǹ å ְ Ȱ鿡 å մϴ. å ڷḦ -
- ǥ Ʈ(跮 м)ߴٴ ġ
Ƶ̰ ͽϴ.
2011 Ⱑ õ ȣ [ݸ A History of Interest Rates 4E in
2005] å µ. å
鿩 ִ ־ε ̷ å ϴ. 뼺
.
! Ѵٴ 𰨻, ϰ å ű Ʋ Ǵ å 쳽 ǻ ϴ
ǥϷ մϴ.
å Ʈ ȿ м Ʈ ؼ 뷫 24(?) Ʈ Ұմϴ. / ͷ 赵 /мϴ Ʈ
() ߱
д ӵ ֽϴ. ~
϶
Ź , (base rate)̳ (batting average)
ãƳ, ϴ ̴. ̸ ִ 幰. ϴ ڴ
ʰ Ѵ.
(base rate)
ֽĽ忡 Ư Ⱓ ͷ شѴ. ݸ ϰ ִ. 丮
PER 100 ֽ 鵵 ִ.
1964~2009 10
ͷ м , PER ͷ
찡 1% ̸̾ٴ Ǹ Ѵ. 丮
ʹ ؼ Ⲩ .
ɷ
ݺؼ ϴ ϳ 츮 ɷ ٴ ̴.
츮 ɷ ִٴ Ŵ Ƽŭ ߰ߵ ʾҴ. ٰ ؼ ΰ
ߴؾ Ѵٴ ƴϴ. - ӽ Ƽ, [100% ġ]
Ÿ ħ
Ϸ Ÿ ħ ƾ Ѵ. ϴ ڵ
Ÿ ƺ. ̵ Ÿ 縦 ϰ Ѵ. ̵鿡Դ
ϵ 縦 ϴ Ҵ.
ȸ
Ž, ,
۾ , ְ ߸ ۿ .
ߵ ո ϰǰ ϴ Դ ȸ ȴ.
ݵ ȸѴ
S&P500 ,
1927~2009 ڷῡ ϸ, ϶
϶ 40.57%, Ⱓ 16
ִ. ȸϴ ϶ Ⱓ 3迡 42 ɷȴ. ̷ 츮 ϶忡
Ư ѵ, ϶忡 ݵ ȸѴٴ ˷ֱ ̴.
PERְ
10,000 1964~2009 PER 10% ֽĿ ߴٸ 10,202,345 ŭ
´ٸ, 1,329,513 Ǿ. PER 10% 16.25% ͷ 11.22% ͷ ÷ȴ.
-> ͷ ø Ʈ , ٶ/ DZ űϴ^^
ֽ 20谡 Ѵ ְ żϴ ɼ ũ.
– ̾, [Ǻм, 1940]
¡
ڰ ӿ ִ ˱Ⱑ ƴ. ܼ
ϳ ִٸ ̼ ֽĵ ÿ ٸ ٴ ̴.
ġ, ȿ ִ ϱ ƴ
ġ ̵ ༼̵, ǰ ֵ ǰ
ϰǰ ϴ ڸ ϴ, ȿ ִ ̴.
ϰǰ ϱⰡ ƴٴ ̴. 츮 ǻ ֽĽ ϱ
, ȭϰ ġ ֽ Ǹ ̴.
ְ ˰ μ ֽĵ, ģ ̿ ȸڵǴ
ٷ ֽĵ ǿ ڱ . ̷ ֽĵ ڸ ǸŲ.
(The Wisdom of Crowds)
Ȳ ¾ ſ ȶ ȶ. 4 ȴٸ Ҽ Ǵ ɰ ̴. ǰ پ缺, , бȭ, ǰ ̴.
- ӽ Ű, [
]
4 忡 Ǵ Ŀ ؼ, ֽ ֽ 濡 ǰ Ѵ. ̰
ʴ 忡 ǰ ų ̴. Ȳ ش ġ ǰ
ɷ Ѵ.
з ,
10% ȿϰ 10% ־ Ϲε ͷ
Ʈ ٸ մϴ. Ư 11
ͷ ֽ ũ ̱ Ѵٴ ͷ ƴ, ߽ϴ μ ǽ ۿ ó Ȳ̾µ.
ֽڿ ־ Ȯϰ ִ Ʈڸ 캸Ҵٴ ġ ִ ϵ̾ ڶϰ ͽϴ.
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