| [: Ʒ Ư ũ(valuewalk.com) 2021 12 20 Դϴ. ֽĿ ǰ Դϴ.]
* ó: H.C. (H.C. Eu), Investing for Value(https://www.i4value.asia/) , LENNAR IS NOT A GROWTH STOCK BUT A CYCLICAL ONE" 2021 12 20, https://www.valuewalk.com/lennar-is-not-a-growth-stock-but-a-cyclical-one/
* ó: H.C. (H.C. Eu), Investing for Value(https://www.i4value.asia/) , LENNAR IS NOT A GROWTH STOCK BUT A CYCLICAL ONE" 2021 12 20, https://www.valuewalk.com/lennar-is-not-a-growth-stock-but-a-cyclical-one/
∙ (Lennar Corporation: NYSE--LEN) μ ðǼ ǥ ߴ. 忡 ߴٸ, 5% ̴.
∙ ðǼ ⸦ Ÿ ȯ̴. ̱ Ǽ(Housing Starts) 0.90 谡 ִ(谡 ). ̱ Ǽ ȸ , װ ͵ ȸѴ.
∙ (װ ν 忡 ұϰ) ְ ƴ϶ мƲ мϰ ġ ؾ Ѵ. м ̼ ְ ؿ .
м ̵
2021 11 Ǵ ȸ迬 ִ 14.27 ߴ. ְ(12 17 ) 105.84̸, PER 7.4̴.
ȸ迬 , 21%, 80% ߴ. ̷ ڱȸ ִ.
ðǼü. ðǼ ⸦ Ÿ ȯ̸, ݴ м мƲ ؾ Ѵ. ̷ мƲ м , ְ ؿ . ġ ó åϰ ִ.
ֿ
∙ 12 21.2% ߴ. ̴ μ Ǽ dz ̾. 常 ߴٰ , Ⱓ 5% ؿ ģ.
∙ ðǼ ⸦ Ÿ ΰ ̴. 10 Ǽ ֱ ־. Ǽ ʴ´.
∙ Ǽ ̶ Ȳ ̲ ִ. ̷ Ǽ ʰϰ ̴. ᱹ Ǽ ģ ȸ ̴.
∙ Ǽ 0.90 谡 ִ. Ǽ ȸϸ, װ ͵ ȸ ̴.
∙ ݴ ϴ. ְġ â , 12 ڱں ä(Debt Equity ratio) ؼ 繫ε ϴ.
∙ ̱ , ڻ̶ ϱ ƴ. м ġ ̴.
̷ ħϴ ü м .
1.
2010 2021, 21.1% ߴ. κδ , κδ μ ̾.
μ ȿ ϱ μ ʾҴ Ⱓ 캸Ҵ. , Ⱓ ִ. ߴ.
∙ 9 ðǼü . 9 ðǼü 2020 Ѵ.
∙ ̱ Ǽ .
Ʒ <ǥ 1> ֵ, 10 ʹݺ(2011-2016) 9 ü Ǽ ο . 2018 , ε巯 ʾҴ.
2018~2020 Ⱓ ǹߴ.
ü , 10 ðǼü ϴ 2010 14% 2020 25% ߴ. ̷ ģ ̴. ̴ ü 庸ٴ μ Ҵٴ ǹѴ.
ᱹ ǹϴ ٴ, δ ̱ ر ߴٴ ̴.
2. ȯ Ǽ
̱ Ǽ 2010 59ä 2020 138ä ߴ. δ 8.9%̴. 2010 2020 Ǽ ϴ ֱ⿴.
< 1> ֵ, 70 Ǽ ȯ̾. Ʈ̵ ڳͽ(Trading Economics) , Ǽ 2022 137ä , 2023 127ä ȴ. , ϶ ȴ.
70 1992 2010 Ǿ ֱ⸦ 7 ֱⰡ ־. Ʈ̵ ڳͽ 3 ִ.
∙ ðǼ ΰ ̴.
∙ Ǽ տ , ̴.
∙ 2020 Ǽ 150ä տ ߴ.
Ǽ ȸͿ ƾ Ѵ.
2010~2020 Ǽ 0.90̾, Ǽ ε 0.89. ̴ Ǽ ȸ ȸ ؾ Ѵٴ ǹѴ.
ðǼü Ϸ ڷκ Ѿƿ ־ Ѵ. տ 캻 ٿ ø ߴ.
̴ 嵵 ߴٴ ǹѴٱ⺸ٴ ⷮ ٴ ַ λ ǹѴ.
Ǽ ʾ, ٸ . ñû(Federal Housing Finance Agency) ð(House Price Index) , 1992 2021 8 4.3% ߴ(< 2> ).
Ǽ 嵵 , ðǼ ߴ. ̱ GDP ̴. ̴ ðǼ ƴ϶ ش.
3. Ǽ, ʰ ΰ?
̱ 並 ϴ ֿ Ž 2̴.
∙ ̱ Ǽ: ̴ ȯ̸ 150ä ̴. 10 Ǽ ֱ ־.
∙ ̱ : ̱ 꿡 100ä 500ä ϴ. ֱ ̱ε߰ȸ(National Association of Realtors) (Rosen Consulting Group) ̱ ּ 550ä ¶ ߰ ִ.
2 ε ֱ Ǽ ʰ ̶ ȴ. , ʰ ΰ ߴ.
∙ 2021 Ǽ 150ä ̴.
∙ Ǽ 8.9% ̴. 8.9% 2010~2020 ̴.
∙ Ǽ ϶ ̴. ϶ ϰ ߴ.
∙ 2 ó 캸Ҵ. ù ° ó ó 100ä ʰϴ ̰, ° ó ó 500ä ʰϴ . ʰ 150ä ʰ Ǽ κ̴.
< 3> 2 ó Ǽ ġ Ÿ ̴.
∙ 100ä ¸ ǹϴ ó , Ǽ 2024 ̴.
∙ 500ä ¸ ǹϴ ó , Ǽ 2027 ̴.
̷ ó鿡 Ǽ δ ʴ´ٴ , ϶ տ ̴ ߴٴ ֱ ٶ. ʵ ̴ ġ ȭŰ ʴ´.
, 60 ̱ ̷ տ ȭ δ ʴ´.
4. ݴ
ݴ ȸ Ϳ Ǹ ̴. ̸ Ȯϱ ְġ â 繫¶ 2 캸Ҵ.
ù°, 2010 2020 ְġ â ־. ̸ ǥ ߴµ, Ʒ ǥó ǥ ڱ(cost of funds) ߴ. ̷ ǥ ڱ뺸 Ŭ ְġ âȴ.
(a) ̴ ְ 2010 ֽ ָ żؼ 2021 Ǵ Ÿ ̴. ٸ ǥ , ǥ ֽĽ ð̴(<ǥ 3> ).
°, ڱں ä 30% 繫 ϴ. ڱں ä 12 Դ(< 4> ). κδ ä ȯ, κδ ڱں ̴. 繫° Կ ʿ ڱ ϰ Ȳ ° ڻ å ־. ̴ ͷ .
̳ ƴϳ ϴ ƴϴ( иϴ). ߴ ƴϳ ϴ ̴.
5. ̼
ȯ ٸ, ġ Ǵ ġ ȭ(normalized)ؾ Ѵ. ġ ߴ.
(a) 12 20.83̾
(b) ǰ 2017 10.3% 2021 8.6% ϶.
(c) ں(TCE = Total Capital Employed) = ڱں + Ҽ + ä -
6. ̼ 1ܰ , ֿ ǥ .
EBIT( ) = - ǸŰ
ġ = X (1 - )
= ڱںͷ
ġ Ǿ.
∙ ΰġ = ִ 68
∙ ͷ ġ(Earning Power Value: EPV: ̷ ʰ Ͱ ں ״ ӵȴٴ ġ) = ִ 85
∙ ϴ ġ(Earning Value with Growth: ġ) = 4.3% , ִ 106
ֵ, м ְ ؿ .
7. ɼ
м ϴ ̴. , ġ ɼ ִ.
(1) ǰ : 2016 ǰ ٿ. ġ ǰ 9.11% ߴ. ǰ 8.11% ȴٰ ϸ, ͷ ġ ִ 93 ϰ, ϴ ġ ִ 123 Ѵ.
(2) ڿ . 2021 ڷ 6 8,000 ÷ȴµ, ġ ̸ ߴ.
(3) Ǽ ȸϴ : м Ǽ տ ʰ ϶ տ ̴ ȴٰ ̴. Ȳ ϸ, ϶ ÿ ̴ ʰ ϴ ƴ ִ. ̷ Ÿ < 3>̴.
̷ (Ǽ տ ʰ ϶ ̴ ȸ ), ġ ̴ ȸϴ ʰ ġ ߰ ִ. ̷ ߰Ǵ ġ ִ 9 ߴ. ̷ 꿡 ̴ ȸϴ ʰ ͷ ǰ ø ʴ´ٰ ߴ. ̶ < 3> ó ߴ.
(1)~(3) ɼ ϴ ߰ ġ ϸ, ̼ < 5> Ÿ ִ.
(a) ϴ ġ = 4.3% ġ
(b) ó ġ = ǰ ̴ ȸϴ ʰС ϴ ġ.
̷ ɼ ȴٰ ּ 25% ִٴ ̴. ̴ ַ ġ ȴ. , ǰ ν ִٰ ϴ ̸, ũ(PropTech: ÷ܱ ε ) 鿡 ڰ ϴ ̰, Ǽ ϰ ϴ ̴. μ ̷ ̴.
ַ ġϷ μ ؾ ̴. ̾ Ѵٴ ġ ð ִ.
̱ ǥ ðǼü̴. ̷ ġ ö ַ μ ؼ. ַ · ̷ ̴.
ðǼ ȯ̸, Ǽ ̴. ̱ ε, ̴ Ǽ ʰ ǹѴ. ûǼ ᱹ ġ ȸ ̴.
װ Ǽ ̿ 0.90 谡 ִ. Ǽ ȸϸ, ȸ ̴. ϴ ÷ ٴ ̴.
ݴз ̱ ְ ؿ ڱȸ . м ͷ ġ ϴ ġ ̴. ɼ ֱ , ġڶ ʴ ̴.
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