| [: Ʒ Ư ũ(valuewalk.com) 9 27 Դϴ. ֽĿ ǰ Դϴ.]
* ó: H.C. (H.C. Eu), Investing for Value(https://www.i4value.asia/) , CUMMINS – AN UNAPPRECIATED NEW DIRECTION?" 2021 9 27, https://www.valuewalk.com/cummins-an-unappreciated-new-direction/
* ó: H.C. (H.C. Eu), Investing for Value(https://www.i4value.asia/) , CUMMINS – AN UNAPPRECIATED NEW DIRECTION?" 2021 9 27, https://www.valuewalk.com/cummins-an-unappreciated-new-direction/
∙ Ŀν(Cummins Inc.: NYSE--CMI) ̺긮 ĿƮ(powertrain: ġ; ̸ ʿ κп ϴ ġ; ) ٲ ִ. ̷ Ŀν δ.
∙ ĿƮν ̳ 庸 ξ ū ̴. ĿƮ ι Ŀν Ͱ δ.
∙ װ Ŀν ݴе ϴ. 10 Ŀν ڵ ̻ ´.
∙ 2ܰ Ŀν ִ ġ 301 ߴ. ְ(9 23 : 228) ؿ 32%̴.
<̹: Ŀν Ȩ>
̵
2018 Ŀν 10K ʺ ȸ ĿƮ κ ԽŰ ߴ.
∙ 2017 : õ ǰ
∙ 2018 : õ ĿƮ ǰ
∙ 2019 2020 : , õ, ̺긮 ĿƮ, ĿƮ ǰ
Ŀν ٲٴ Ǿ. Ŀν õ ̺긮 ٲٱ ƴ϶, ǰ ĿƮ Ȯߴ. ȯ Ŀν Ӱ ְ ִ.
Ŀν μ ̷ ο о߿ ȭϴµ ̾. ÿ 2012 Ŀν ʾҴ ϾƸī ü μϱ ߰, ü 迭 ϰ Ǿ.
װ ߴ Ŀν ݴе ϴ. ڵ鿡 Դµ, ̴ ο ִ Ư̴.
Ŀν ְ ̷ ݿ ִ. ְ 228(2021 9 23) ̴.
<̹: Ŀν ֱ 1 ְ Ʈ>
ֿ
∙ Ŀν ϴ. Covid-19 ҵ ۾ 2020 ϸ, 2010~2019 6.6%, 7.9%.
∙ 2010~2020Ⱓ ڱںͷ(ROE) 23%, ̴ Ⱓ 8.4% Ǵ ڱں ξ Ѿ ̴. ְ ǰ ι , ǰ ι Ŀν ĿƮ ٽ ̴.
∙ ڻͷ(ROA) Ŀν ڵ ̻ ߴ.
∙ Ŀν 繫ε ϴ. 2021 ߹ , ڱں ä 20% Ұϴ.
∙ ĿƮν ̳ 庸 ξ ū ̴. ĿƮν Ŀν δ.
∙ , Ŀν ġ ִ 231 ȴ. ̴ 1ܰ ̴. 2ܰ ó , Ŀν ִ ġ 301 ȴ.
∙ ְ , ó , ó 32% Ѵ. ó Ŀν ݿ ϰ ִ.
̷ ϴ ü ϸ .
1.
2021 ݱ Ŀν װ 38% 53% ߴ. ̷ ݱ Ŀν ǥ Ʈ(Ʒ) ִ ġϴ ̴. Ʈ 2010 (2010 =1.0), 2010 2020 Ÿ ̴. 2011, 2014, 2017, 2018 ߴ(10% ̻ ). ÿ 2017 2018 Ϳ ū ȭ ־.
∙ 2014 ϰ, 2011, 2017, 2018 ι ϴ ǰ ̴. 2014 κ Ŀν ϾƸī ü μ ̴.
∙ 2017 ұϰ ϶ ֿ 7 7,700 ȸ ̾. 2018 ٽ ݵ ͷ ϰ 2017 ̴.
(Ŀν ǥ: 2010~2020)
* 2010=1.0, û: , Ȳ:
2. ߿ ͼ
2010~2020 , Ŀν ڱںͷ(ROE) 23%. Ⱓ Ŀν ι , , (EBITDA) ֿ .
∙ ǰ ι 10.4% .
∙ ι 10.4% ϴ .
ĿƮ õ ǰ ġ. ĿƮ ý ٽ ġ̸, , Ʈ̼, , , ġ Եȴ. Ŀν ĿƮν忡 ϱ ؼ ǰ ι ʿϴ.
Ʒ ι EBITDA ֵ--ĿƮν ʼ-- ǰ ι Ŀν EBITDA ũ ι̴. ι Ŀν ĿƮν Ǵ ̴.
(Ŀν ι EBITDA: 2010~2020)
* , , ǰ, Ŀý, Ŀý/Ÿ
2013 Ŀν κ ߴ ̱ ij ü 3~5 ̿ μϰڴٰ ǥߴ. 2012~2016 Ŀν 15 ü μϴµ 4 2,800 ߴ.
̷ μ Ŀν ι 9,000 (EBIT) ø ȴ. μ (2017 2020) ϾƸī ι EBIT 3 2,500 ȴ. ̴ ϾƸī ι EBITͷ ̴.
뷫 ̱ , ̴ Ŀν μ ߰ 2 3,500 ٴ ش. 2 ġ ߰ ̸ Ŀν μ ȸϰ ȴ. , μ Ŀν κ 忡 ̱ , μ ȸ翡 ġٴ ش.
3. ڵ ռ
Ŀν ڻͷ(ROA) ڵ--(Borg Warner), ijʷ(Caterpillar), 彼(Donaldson), ư(Eaton), Ÿ(Navistar), (Deere), ī(Paccar), (Grainger)-- Ҵ. Ʒ ǥ , ڵ Ŀν ̻ ȴ.
(Ŀν ü )
4. ưư ں
2021 7 4 , Ŀν ں(Total Capital Employed: TCE) 131 8,000 . 60% ڱں, 40% Ҽ Ÿں(ä) Ǿ ִ. ں 67% ǰ ִ. ں 19% ε, ̴ 5%(ڷ: ٸٶ 2021 1 ڷ) ̴.
(Ŀν ں ں ̿: 2021 7 4 )
Ŀν ں λ ä 33% ̱ 49%(ٸٶ 2021 1 ڷ) . Ŀν Ը ä(ä - ) ξ , Ŀν ڱں ä 2020 10%, 2021 ߹ 20%̴.
5.
м Ŀν ȭ ִٴ Ϳ ָ ̴.
∙ ι Ȯ.
∙ Ŀýۿ ĿƮ, ĿƮ ǰ, Ŀý ǰ ȯ.
ٰ ؼ ι 迡 ִٴ ƴϴ. ִ. Ʒ ǥ ֵ ĿƮ ι ū ִ δ.
(ι Ȳ)
ڷ:
a) IMARC Group.
b)
c) Grand View Research.
ĿƮν , Ư ĿƮ ι ̰ ִ. < ġ(Grand View Research)> , ĿƮν Ը 2020 720 Ǹ, 2021~2028 33.5% ȴ.
6.
⺻ Ŀν ġ ߴ.
∙ ͷ ġ(Earning Power Value: EPV: ̷ ʰ Ͱ ں ״ ӵȴٴ ġ) ϴ ġ(Earning Value with Growth: ġ) Ŀν ġ ߴ. ϴ ġ , ó ó ߴ.
∙ ó 1ܰ 帧(Free Cash Flow to the Firm model: FCFF model) 4% ̴. ⼭ 4% ̱ GDP .
∙ ó , 2ܰ 帧 , ó 10Ⱓ 7.4% ߴ. 7.4% 2017~2019 Ŀν ̴. 4% ߴ.
ġ ٸ ֿ .
∙ 2017~2019 ġ ߴ. ̴ 2020 ־ Covid-19 ҵ ϱ ̴.
∙ ں ںڻ갡ݰ(CAPM) ߴ. ͷ 1.9% , Ÿ ̱ Ÿ ߴ. پ ǥ ġ ٸٶ 2021 1 ڷῡ Դ.
̷ ذ 鿡 Ŀν ġ Ʒ ǥ Ʈ .
(Ŀν ġ: 2021 9 23 )
ְ ͷ ġ . ġ Ǵؾ ̴.
, ġ ְ ִ:
∙ ó .
∙ ó 32% ִ.
ϴ Ÿϴ
м ó Ͽ ȭ 쿡 Ŀν ż ȸ ش. ȭȴٰ ϰ ִ.
∙ 4% ؼ ƹ ̴. װ ̱ GDP ϴٴ ǰ , Ŀν 2010~2020 ̹ 4% ߴ. Covid-19 Ҵ 2020 Խ . ̱ ֱ 5̸, Ŀν 2 ֱ⸦ ġ鼭 4% ߴٰ ִ.
∙ ֱ Ŀν ̺ . Ŀν 2016~2017 17% ߰, 2017~2018 16% ߴ. ̴ Ŀν ü ܰ 7.4% ξ ̴.
∙ Ŀν ü ܰ ڸ(7.4%)̴. Ϲ ִ ܰ迡 ڸ ϴ ֽ Ѵ. Ŀν Ϲ ִ ƴ϶ ϰ ִ(Ϲ ƴ, ).
, Ŀν Կ ־ ִ.
∙ м 23.9%. ̴ ⺻ ( ) ξ ̴. ⺻ ߴٸ Ŀν 帧 ̰, Ŀν ġ ̴.
∙ , , ڵ ĿƮ ι 4~5% ǰ ִ. ̴ Ŀν 7.4% ϸ鼭 ݺ ÷ Ѵ١ ǹѴ.
∙ ǰ , ϱ ؼ ǰ ؾ ̴. ̷ ұϰ Ŀν üδ ߴ.
̷ ǻ , 32% ִ شٰ ִ. <>
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