λֽ 10 ȲݹĢ Only the Best Will Do in 2019
: Ϸ Peter Seilern
ű:
ǻ: ũ / 2020-07 / 230 / \\18,200
1973 10 1( 1 365 ߿ ϴ ) Ʈ ũ ϸ鼭 迡 Թ ڴ پ о߸ ġ (ڽ ǥ) ҽϴ. 1981 ֽĽ Ƽ , 1979 շߴ ܺν Źڻ ݵŴ Ӹ˴ϴ.
ֽĽ ġ ڴ (ֽĽ ؼ) ̴. 1973 ũ ֽĽ ħü ؼ ڸ θ ߰ ۵Ǿ ݵŴ Ǿ . ڴ (?) ̾ 1970뿡 ڽ ö ٸ ȸմϴ.
ô뿡 ⺻ ν ҵ ְ Ǿ Ӹ ƴ϶, ں ġ ɼ ġ 鼭 ũ ִ ħ . ְ Ƽ ϴ ũ ּȭϸ鼭 ִȭϴ ڸ ִ Ȯ ̶ ߴ.
1980 ݵŴ Ȱϸ鼭 ڿ ڽ öп Ȯ Ϸ 1989 ڿ(Ϸ ڿ) ؼ մϴ. ڽ ö ְ ȸ翡 ϴ ڹ ڻԸ 15 Űϴ.
Ϸ- å Ұϴ-Ƽ ڴ ںս ũ ּȭϸ鼭 ̻ ø ݱ ΰ ϰ ȿ ̶ ڽմϴ. װ ϴ ٰŸ ϴ.
1, μ Ƽ ڸ âϴ
2, Ƽ ڰݱ Ű Ҽ ã
3, Ƽ ڿ ٸ ڹ
1, ְ ֽĿ ϶!
1, ũ ߰ ͷ ø
- ϴµ ߿ ݴ( , 帧, 繫) ų Ȥ ִ ϴ ִٰ մϴ.
ð ڰ ϴ ū ũ װ ֽ ְ ̳ Ȥ ̳ ϴ ƴ϶, ش ݴ , , Ŀ ̳ Ȥ ȭ ̳ ϴ ̴.
Ƽ ڴ ϴ ̹Ƿ ð ڱ̶ ˰ ִ ε. ϰ ;ϴ ڿ մϴ.
ڵ ְ ϸ ϰ ; ϴµ, ̴ ְ ٽ ̰ ݿ ֽ ǻ ̶ Ȥ ̴. ̰ ϱ ؼ ùٸ ʿϴ. ù° ÿ Ĵ ̰ ° ÿ ǻ ̴. ϳ ߸Ǹ, ս ȴ. ʹ Ȱ Ÿϸ ũ Ŀ.
-> ( ) Ÿ̹ .
ֽĽ ε ε ī ϴ ߸ ð ϴ ̴. ڽ , γ, ð ʿ Ѵ. ڽ ϰ, ָϸ, ൿ ˱ϴ Ȥ ϴ ̴.
ڴ ڱ ϴ ó ֽ ؾ Ѵ. ̳ ε ġ ִٰ ϸ ״ ġ ̶ ̰, ġ Ȯϱ ε߰ڿ ȭ Ŵ ̴. üڰ Ȥ ڱ Ȯؾ ϴ Ͱ ڻ굵 ̵ ϰ ؾ , װͿ Ŵ ߸ ̴.
-> ̰ Դϴ. ֽڰ ϴ ū ̴ ְ ̰ŵ.
2, ڴ ȹ ִ
̴ 3 : , , ̼
- ڴ ϸ, ϵ ϶ϵ ӿ ġ ο Ǹ ← Ѵ.
1.
ó, ȣȲ Ȳ Ϲ ź Ȯϴ. 20 ÷̼ ſ ؿ ӹ ִ. ̴ Ƽ ־ ϳ ̱ ϴ. ̵ < ø ִ> Ǵ ϴ ̴.
2.
Žð ǹ: Աó ǰ ִ Ȥ ̿ ȭ
̽ð ǹ: Ȥ ִ ڵ ڱ
3. ̼
̼, ġ ̺ ְ( ) ֽ ̴.
-> ġڴ ߿ϰ λ ǥõ ʴ ڻ ġ ߽õǴ νϰ ֽϴ. 3 ߿ ̼ 纸 ϱ ƽϴ.
µ ̼ ŷ ְ, dzѵ (2000 Ĺ )̼ ʹ ִ.
-> ̼Ǹδ ϰ ٸ Բ ؾ Ѵٴ . ҿ ʹ ġ Ͼ ϶ ǹ̰ ֽϴ.
䱸ͷ(required rate of return) Ǵ ֽ ũ ̾
- ⱹä ϴ ڰ ڻ ġ ϴµ ʿ ġũ Ȥ ͷ̴. ֽڻ ġ ٽ ̽ ֽĿ ڸ ȸϴ ߰ ִ ϴ ̴. ȸϴ ߰ ־ ڰ ȭ ִµ ߰ ͷ Ѵ.
2, λֽ ΰ?
3, λֽ ã 10 ȲݹĢ
Ƽ 4
-
- 繫
- äϰ ִ ȸĢ
- 豸( 濵Ǵ )
ְ ã
- ڴ 10 Ű OECD 5 60 Ұϴٰ ߽ϴ.
– ϰ Ϸ ǵ 60 ̶ ϴ ƽ ־µ. 10 ؿ ϸ鼭 ϰ ֽϴ.
1. Ȯ
- Ű
- ÷ (ſī ), ɷ (κ )
2. Ҽ 强
- GDP ʰϴ ̸鼭 ֱ ħ ʴ
- ݿ ڰ ȯ, , α ȭ , Ȱ ȭ
3. ֵ
- ֵ Ⱓ . ڵ.
- ǰ , ƼĴ, īݶ, ſ
4.
- ǰ̳ Ǵ
- ݰ(price maker)
5.
- ⺻ Ȱ â , μ ƴ
6. л
- ɼ Ϻθ ϴ Ϲ ɼ ؼ ξ ū ȣ
7. ں൵ ںͷ
- ROE
8. ưư 繫
- ä = , ä
- ä , äں ļ ũ Ŀ
9. ȸ
- ⺻ ϱ
- : ν ä, : ڻ/ä ġ , , , : ä/
10. 濵 豸
- 븮κ, 濵 (ȸ) ȣ
4, ְ Ʈ
- ȲݹĢ ϸ м ڴ (universe) Ҽ ְ, Ʈ 20~30 60 ڴ Ϲ мϸ ȴٰ ϴµ. ռ 10 ҵ ̷ ġ ʾ Դϴ.
Ҽ 뷮 ϴ Ʈ ϱ ؼ , , ڽ Ȯſ Ⱑ ʿϴ.
ʿ ؼ γ ð ʿϸ, ̶ ˰ ϴ Ž ʿϴ. Ǹ ŷ ݿ ְ ȸ 翬 ؼ ´. ؼ ߰ ݴ ο ڸ Բ ݵ带 ɷ, ʿϴ.
-> л ȣġ ϸ鼭, Ʈ ڽ ƴ Ƽ ֵ ä մϴ.
ֽ Ȥ ϴ ŭ̳ ż Ƽ , ̴ ϴ ͵ ̴.
ٷ ġڵ ش 忡 ְ ִ ֽĵ ʴ 찡 ִ. ݸ Ƽ ڴ ߴ ϳ < մϴ reassuringly expensive> ó ְ ִ ֽĵ ã´.
-> ġڿ Ƽ ̸ Ȯϰ ϴ Դϴ. ̿ ƿƼ, , , ǰ(), װ ڵ ֽı̶ ߰. ̵ Ƽ ֱ 2008 ⸦ ް Ϳ ϰų ͷ ϴ.
5, ΰ?
̴ , , , ̼ ߿ ġڵ ߿ϰ ϴ ̼ ̴ϴ. ڴ ð ª ̼ ߿ϰ ٰ մϴ. ð 귯߸ ְ ش ݴ ġ иϱ ̶ ǵ.
ݸ鿡 ð , Ƽ ̼ ߿µ, ̵ Ʈ ̷ ִ Ƽ ڻ Ǿ ֱ ̶ մϴ.
-> α Ծ ݵ忡 ֽ (ϴ ֽĵ)̷ ġ û ֽĵ̹Ƿ ΰų ΰ ǹ̰ ٰ ߴ ϴ. ΰ ΰ żϷ ġ Ӽ ^^
3, λֽİ Ƽ
6, Ƽ , ٸ?
ͷ ű
- Ƽ ڵ 翡 ε. ں Ǹ, ں ̿ ִ Դϴ. ͷ 帧 ִ ȿ Ƽ ϴ Դϴ.
ش 5~10 ø Ȯ ܿ ں ߰, ̻ ں ʿ 쿡 Ǿ Ѵٰ մϴ.
缺 ϱ ϸ, ܰ(ex-growth: ȭǰ ᱹ ܰ) ִٴ 溸 ϴ.
-> ڵ ϴ 翡 ֽϴ. ϴ ͺ ڱ ͷ ø ̶ 濵ڸ ŷ ִٸ ٶ ڶ ʽϴ.
ֿ Ǵ Ƽ ٽ 4
- ܼ ֿ Ѵٱ ٴ Ȯ ִ Ƽ ֶ ̰.
1. ŷκ ִ.
2. ä Ȥ 繫 ִ.
3. ȸ谡 ϰ ϰ ϴ.
4. 豸 ϰ ð µ ִ.
Ƽ
- Ƽ ڴ ְ ƴ϶ ⺻ ν ũ ߰ ̴ ̴.
7, ΰ?
ä (bailed in: ä ȸҴ ° Ǿ äǺڰ ս δϴ )Ǵ ͺٴ Ƽ Ͼƿ(bailed-out: Ƽ )ϴ .
-> ڴ ֽڿ ִ ͷ äͷ ŷ ִٰ 2008 ( ȭ )ä 鼭 ä ϱ ٰ մϴ.
ڰ ϴ ֽ ũ ̾, 7.5% ϴµ. ̱ 30 äݸ 1.5%(10: 0.7%) ϸ 2 3%(PER 33) Ǵ ġ ִٰ , ڴ PER 13.3 ̻ ϰ ֽϴ.
-> ߴ ǹԴϴ. ġ ̾ PER ִġ 16.5(?), 6% ߴ Ѵٸ ϴ ġ ̰ŵ.
8, ְ ֽ ã ڰ ؾ
- , ڴ ä ڻ ΰ ä ͷ ͷ , Ȥ ڷ մϴ. Ƽ ֿ ν ̸ ų ִٰ Ұ. å ٽ մϴ.
ֽĽ̶ <> äǽ̶ <> , ڱݺ(ݸ) ְ ڰ ǰ, ְ ū ģ.
Ƽ <10 ȲݹĢ> ںս ϰ, ũ ̸鼭, ø ִ ְ ȸ ִ ڸ(template)̴.
Ϸ ڽ ( Ϸ Ƽ ݵ )MSCI ؼ 23(19861~20191) 2.25% ߴٰ ϴµ. 20091 ͷ ũ ̱ ֽϴ.(P.13 )
* 23Ⱓ ͷ 523% / ͷ 8.1%
- MSCI World Index 247% / 2.3% ʰ ͷ
* ֱ 10Ⱓ ͷ 13.2%
ֽĽ (?) ȭ ־ ִµ. õ縦 ̺ ̷ ڽ ظ ֽϴ. ״ Ƽ ( ݺä ǹ ) ڰ ڱ ڵ鿡 ´ ڴ̶ մϴ.
-> ū ͷ ٴ ͷ ϰ Ҹµ ǥ ξٰ ǰ.
ؾ Žð Ȳ װ ϱ⸦ ſ ϴ 鿡 ϰ Ǿ Դٴ ̴. ݸ, , ä Žð ε Ƽ ̼ ְ ر ִ ȯ ߴ.
-> (ö ġֿ ϴ) 忡 ణ ǹ̸ ãƾ Ѵٰ մϴ.
:
İ å ִ å ֽϴ. 츮 ڷμ ʴ ؼ ڹ ִµ. ġ ǥ 鼭 Ϳ ִٸ 帧 âϴ ̵ ʴ ϴ ϰڴٴ åԴϴ.
ȫ, [ ͽ : ۷ι ǰ ֽ 10 , 2020]
- ̵ / 286 / \\18,000
* å.. , λ ƴϸ ̴ ڿ . ؾ Ȯ .
Ͱ꼭 ٰ ϴ ƴϴ. δ ʴ 濵 ° Ƿ 帧 ɷ ̴. ĺ м .
帧ǥ -> 繫ǥ -> Ͱ꼭
( 0)