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å: λֽ 10 ȲݹĢ - , Ϸ

λֽ 10 ȲݹĢ Only the Best Will Do in 2019

: Ϸ Peter Seilern

ű:

ǻ: ũ / 2020-07 / 230 / \\18,200

 

1973 10 1( 1 365 ߿ ϴ ) Ʈ ũ ϸ鼭 迡 Թ ڴ پ о߸ ġ (ڽ ǥ) ޾ҽϴ. 1981 ֽĽ Ƽ , 1979⿡ շߴ ܺν࿡ Źڻ ݵŴ Ӹ˴ϴ.

 

ֽĽ ׸ ġ ޸ ڴ (ֽĽ ؼ) ̴. 1973 ũ ֽĽ ħü  ࿡ ؼ ڸ θ ߰ ۵Ǿ ݵŴ Ǿ . ڴ (?) ̾ 1970뿡 ڽ ö ٸ ȸմϴ.

 

ô뿡 ⺻ ν ҵ ְ Ǿ Ӹ ƴ϶, ں ġ ɼ ġ 鼭 ũ ִ  ħ . ׶ ְ Ƽ ϴ ũ ּȭϸ鼭 ִȭϴ ڸ ޼ ִ Ȯ ̶ ߴ.

 

1980 ݵŴ Ȱϸ鼭 ڿ ڽ öп Ȯ Ϸ 1989 ڿ(Ϸ ڿ) ؼ մϴ. ׸ ڽ ö ְ ȸ翡 ϴ ڹ ڻԸ 15 ޷ Űϴ.

 

Ϸ- å Ұϴ-Ƽ ڴ ںս ũ ּȭϸ鼭 ̻ ø ݱ ΰ ϰ ȿ ̶ ڽմϴ. װ ϴ ٰŸ ϴ.

 

1, μ Ƽ ڸ âϴ

2, Ƽ ڰݱ Ű Ҽ ã

3, Ƽ ڿ ٸ ڹ

 

 

1, ְ ֽĿ ϶!

1, ũ ߰ ͷ ø

-  ϴµ ߿ ݴ( , , ׸ 繫) 󸶳 ų Ȥ ִ ϴ ִٰ մϴ.

 

ð ڰ ϴ ū ũ װ ֽ ְ ̳ Ȥ ̳ ϴ ƴ϶, ش ݴ , , ׸ Ŀ ̳ Ȥ ȭ ̳ ϴ ̴.

 

Ƽ ڴ ϴ ̹Ƿ ð ڱ̶ ˰ ִ ε. ׷ ϰ ;ϴ ڿ  մϴ.

 

ڵ ְ ϸ ϰ ; ϴµ, ̴ ְ ٽ ̰ ׷ ݿ ֽ ǻ ̶ Ȥ ̴. ׷ ̰ ϱ ؼ ùٸ ʿϴ. ù° ÿ Ĵ ̰ ° ÿ ǻ ̴. ϳ ߸Ǹ, ս ȴ. ʹ Ȱ Ÿϸ ߻ ũ Ŀ.

-> ( ) Ÿ̹ .

 

ֽĽ ε ε ī ϴ ߸ ð ϴ ̴. ڽ , γ, ׸ ð ʿ Ѵ. ڽ ϰ, ָϸ, ൿ ˱ϴ Ȥ ϴ ̴.

 

ڴ ڱ ϴ ó ֽ ؾ Ѵ. ̳ ε ġ ִٰ ϸ ״ ġ ̶ ̰, ġ Ȯϱ ε߰ڿ ȭ Ŵ ̴. üڰ Ȥ ڱ Ȯؾ ϴ Ͱ ڻ굵 ̵ ϰ ؾ , ׻ װͿ Ŵ޸ ߸ ̴.

-> ̰ Դϴ. ֽڰ ϴ ū ̴ ְ ̰ŵ.

 

2, ڴ ȹ ִ

 

̴ 3 : , , ̼

- ڴ ϸ, ϵ ϶ϵ ӿ ġ ο ׻ Ǹ ← Ѵ.

 

1.

ó, ȣȲ Ȳ Ϲ ź Ȯϴ. 20 ÷̼ ſ ؿ ӹ ִ. ̴ Ƽ ׷ ־ ϳ ̱⵵ ϴ. ̵ < 󿡼 ø ִ> Ǵ ϴ ̴.

 

2.

Žð ǹ: Աó ǰ ִ Ȥ ̿ ȭ

̽ð ǹ: Ȥ ִ ڵ ڱ

 

3. ̼

̼, ġ ̺ ְ( ) ֽ ̴.

-> ġڴ ׸ ߿ϰ λ ǥõ ʴ ڻ ġ ߽õǴ νϰ ֽϴ. 3 ߿ ̼ 纸 ϱ ƽϴ.

 

µ ̼ ŷ ְ, dzѵ (2000 Ĺ ⿡ ׷)̼ ʹ ִ.

-> ̼Ǹδ ϰ ٸ Բ ؾ Ѵٴ . ҿ ʹ ġ Ͼ ϶ ǹ̰ ֽϴ.

 

䱸ͷ(required rate of return) Ǵ ֽ ũ ̾

- ⱹä ϴ ڰ ڻ ġ ϴµ ʿ 񱳱 ġũ Ȥ ͷ̴. ֽڻ ġ ٽ ̽ ֽĿ ڸ ȸϴ ߰ ִ ϴ ̴.  ȸϴ ߰ ־ ڰ ȭ ִµ ߰ ͷ Ѵ.

 

 

2, λֽ  ΰ?

3, λֽ ã 10 ȲݹĢ

 

Ƽ 4

-

-

- äϰ ִ ȸĢ

- ( 濵Ǵ )

 

ְ ã

- ڴ 10 Ű OECD 5 60 Ұϴٰ ߽ϴ.

ϰ Ϸ ǵ 60 ̶ ϴ ƽ ־µ. 10 ؿ ϸ鼭 ϰ ֽϴ.

 

1. Ȯ

- Ű

- ÷ (ſī ), ɷ (κ )

2. Ҽ 强

- GDP ʰϴ ̸鼭 ֱ ħ ʴ

- ݿ ڰ ȯ, , α ȭ , Ȱ ȭ

3. ֵ

- ֵ Ⱓ . ڵ.

- ǰ ޽, ƼĴ, īݶ, ſ򰡻

4.

- ǰ̳ Ǵ

- ݰ(price maker)

5.

- ⺻ Ȱ â , μ ƴ

6. л

- ɼ Ϻθ ϴ Ϲ ɼ ؼ ξ ū ȣ

7. ں൵ ںͷ

- ROE

8. ưư 繫

- ä = , ä

- ä , äں ļ ũ Ŀ

9. ȸ

- ⺻ ϱ

- : ν ä, : ڻ/ä ġ , , , : ä/

10. 濵 豸

- 븮κ, (ȸ) ȣ

 

4, ְ Ʈ

- ȲݹĢ ϸ м ڴ (universe) Ҽ ְ, Ʈ 20~30 60 ڴ Ϲ мϸ ȴٰ ϴµ. ռ 10 ҵ ̷ ġ ʾ Դϴ.

 

Ҽ 뷮 ϴ Ʈ ϱ ؼ , , ׸ ڽ Ȯſ Ⱑ ʿϴ.

ʿ ؼ γ ׸ ð ʿϸ, ̶ ˰ ϴ Ž ʿϴ. Ǹ ŷ ݿ ְ ȸ 翬 ޶ؼ ´. ׷ ؼ ߰ ݴ ׸ ο ڸ Բ ݵ带 ɷ, ʿϴ.

-> л ȣġ ϸ鼭, Ʈ ڽ ƴ Ƽ ֵ ä մϴ.

 

ֽ Ȥ ϴ ͸ŭ̳ ż Ƽ , ׻ ̴ ϴ ͵ ̴.

ٷ ġڵ ش 忡 ְ ִ ֽĵ ʴ 찡 ִ. ݸ Ƽ ڴ ߴ ϳ < մϴ reassuringly expensive> ó ְ ִ ׷ ֽĵ ã´.

-> ġڿ Ƽ ̸ Ȯϰ ϴ Դϴ. ̿ ƿƼ, , , ǰ(), װ ڵ ֽı̶ ߰. ̵ Ƽ ֱ 2008 ⸦ ް Ϳ ϰų ͷ ϴ.

 

5, 󸶿 󸶿 ΰ?

 

̴ , , , ̼ ߿ ġڵ ߿ϰ ϴ ̼ ̴ϴ. ڴ ð ª ̼ ߿ϰ ٰ մϴ. ð 귯߸ ְ ش ݴ ġ иϱ ̶ ǵ.

ݸ鿡 ð , Ƽ ̼ ߿µ, ̵ Ʈ ̷ ִ Ƽ ڻ Ǿ ֱ ̶ մϴ.

-> α⿡ Ծ ݵ忡 ֽ (ϴ ֽĵ)̷ ġ û ֽĵ̹Ƿ ΰų ΰ ǹ̰ ٰ ߴ ϴ. ΰ ΰ żϷ ġ Ӽ ׿^^

 

 

3, λֽİ Ƽ

6, Ƽ ,  ٸ?

 

ͷ ű

- Ƽ ڵ 翡 ε. ں Ǹ, ں ̿ ִ Դϴ. ͷ 帧 ִ ȿ Ƽ ϴ Դϴ.

ش 5~10 ø Ȯ ܿ ں ߰, ̻ ں ʿ 쿡 ޵Ǿ Ѵٰ մϴ.

缺 ϱ ϸ, ܰ(ex-growth: ȭǰ ᱹ ܰ)  ִٴ 溸 ϴ.

-> ڵ ϴ 翡 ֽϴ. ϴ ͺ ڱ ͷ ø ̶ ׸ 濵ڸ ŷ ִٸ ٶ ڶ ʽϴ.

 

ֿ Ǵ Ƽ ٽ 4

- ܼ ֿ Ѵٱ ٴ Ȯ ִ Ƽ ֶ ̰.

 

1. ŷκ ִ.

2. ä Ȥ 繫 ִ.

3. ȸ谡 ϰ ϰ ϴ.

4. 豸 ϰ ð µ ִ.

 

Ƽ

- Ƽ ڴ ְ ƴ϶ ⺻ ν ũ ߰ ̴ ̴.

 

7,  ΰ?

 

ä (bailed in: ä ȸҴ ° Ǿ äǺڰ ս δϴ )Ǵ ͺٴ Ƽ Ͼƿ(bailed-out: Ƽ ޴ )ϴ .

-> ڴ ֽڿ ִ ͷ äͷ ŷ ִٰ 2008 ( ȭ )ä 鼭 ä ϱ ٰ մϴ.

 

ڰ ϴ ֽ ũ ̾, 7.5% ϴµ. ̱ 30 äݸ 1.5%(10: 0.7%) ϸ 2 3%(PER 33) Ǵ ġ ִٰ , ڴ PER 13.3 ̻ ϰ ֽϴ.

-> ߴ ǹԴϴ. ġ ׷̾ PER ִġ 16.5(?), 6% ߴ Ѵٸ ϴ ġ ̰ŵ.

 

8, ְ ֽ ã ڰ ؾ

- , ڴ ä ڻ ΰ ä ͷ ͷ , Ȥ ڷ մϴ. ׸ Ƽ ֿ ν ̸ ų ִٰ Ұ. å ٽ մϴ.

 

ֽĽ̶ <> äǽ̶ <> , ڱݺ(ݸ) ׻ ְ ڰ ǰ, ְ ū ģ.

Ƽ <10 ȲݹĢ> ںս ϰ, ũ ̸鼭, ø ִ ְ ȸ ִ ڸ(template)̴.

 

 

׸

 

Ϸ ڽ ( Ϸ Ƽ ݵ )MSCI ؼ 23(19861~20191) 2.25% ߴٰ ϴµ. 20091 ͷ ũ ̱ ֽϴ.(P.13 ׷ )

* 23Ⱓ ͷ 523% / ͷ 8.1%

- MSCI World Index 247% / 2.3% ʰ ͷ

* ֱ 10Ⱓ ͷ 13.2%

 

ֽĽ (?) ȭ ־ ִµ. õ縦 ̺񽺴 ̷ ڽ ظ ֽϴ. ״ Ƽ ( ݺä ǹ ) ڰ ׸ ڱ ڵ鿡 ´ ڴ̶ մϴ.

-> ū ͷ ٴ ͷ ϰ Ҹµ ǥ ξٰ ǰ.

 

ؾ Žð Ȳ װ ϱ⸦ ſ ϴ ׷ 鿡 ϰ Ǿ Դٴ ̴. ݸ, , ׸ ä Žð ε Ƽ ̼ ְ ر ִ ȯ ߴ.

-> (ö 򰡰ġֿ ϴ) 忡 ణ ǹ̸ ãƾ Ѵٰ մϴ.

 

 

:

İ å ִ å ֽϴ. 츮 ڷμ ʴ ؼ ڹ ִµ. ġ ǥ 鼭 Ϳ ִٸ 帧 âϴ ̵ ʴ ϴ ϰڴٴ åԴϴ.

 

ȫ, [ ͽ : ۷ι ǰ ֽ 10 , 2020]

- ̵ / 286 / \\18,000

 

* å.. , λ ƴϸ ̴ ڿ . ؾ Ȯ .

Ͱ꼭 ٰ ϴ ƴϴ. ͸δ ʴ 濵 ° Ƿ 帧 ɷ ̴. ĺ м .

 

帧ǥ -> 繫ǥ -> Ͱ꼭

 




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