| ۷ιڻ(Global Return Asset Management) Ʈ(Elliot Trexler) ֱ ħü ڿ Ʈʵ鿡 2019 10 Ϻη ڿ Ư ũ(www.valuewalk.com) Դϴ.
ļ ѵ ũ ̸, Ǵ Ұ ȹԴϴ. 1 Ʈ ش ̱ ä ܱ ݸ ħü ´ٴ ȣ⺸ٴ ħü ɼ ̴ Ȳ ´ٴ ȣ Դϴ.
̷ ϴ ڴ ٸ ֱ Դϴ. ܱ ݸ ؼ ٸ ص ֽʽÿ.
<۷ιڻ ڵ鿡 1 (2019 10)>ļ ѵ ũ ̸, Ǵ Ұ ȹԴϴ. 1 Ʈ ش ̱ ä ܱ ݸ ħü ´ٴ ȣ⺸ٴ ħü ɼ ̴ Ȳ ´ٴ ȣ Դϴ.
̷ ϴ ڴ ٸ ֱ Դϴ. ܱ ݸ ؼ ٸ ص ֽʽÿ.
1: ܱ ݸ , ħü ȣϱ?
ڿ Ʈ ,
츮 ¾ ٽ ̸, ̷ ħü ̶ ˰ ֽϴ.
¾ ٽ ٴ Ϳ ؼ ǹ ̹Ƿ ħü ɼ ؼ 캸 ϰڽϴ.
dz غ ڷ â ϴ ó 츮 ۷ιڻ뵵 ũ ּȭ ȭ Ʈ ϰ ֽϴ. ÿ 츮 п Ʒ ϱ غ߽ϴ. ̹ Ϻ̸, ļ ѵ 帮 ϰڽϴ.
1. ħü ˹ߵ ִ ũ ͵ ִ°?
2. ̷ ħü ũ鿡 ι ΰ?
3. ̷ ũ ϰ ȭϱ 츮 Ʈ ϰ ִ°?
ϴ Ϸ ѿ ǥ ϴ Դϴ. ̻ ǥϱ? ϴ!
߿ , ̳ (̷ Ϳ ؼ ʿ䰡 Դϴ) ƴ϶ ʿ䰡 ֱ Դϴ.
̹ 帮 ѿ 켱 帮 ä ܱ ݸ ħü ´ٴ ȣ ƴ϶, ħü ִ Ȳ ´ٴ ˷ִ ȣ Դϴ.
̱籹(National Bureau of Economic Research) ħü(recession) ϰ ֽϴ.
...Ϲ GDP, ҵ, , , Ҹ Ǹ ǥ ȮεǴ ̻ ӵǴ ݿ ģ Ȱ ϶(https://www.nber.org/cycles.html).
̷ ǿ ƹ Դϴ. 츮 ϴ ܱ ݸ ħü ˷ִ ȣ ƴ϶, ħü ɼ Ȳ Ǿ ˷ִ ȣ ̶ Դϴ. ̸ ϱ ݸ λ, , Ȥ ϴ 캸 ϰڽϴ.
ϱ ؼ 1957 Ž ö մϴ. 1957 (Milton Friedman) ҺԼ̷С ҵ氡 ó Ұ Դϴ(Friedman, M. The permanent Income Hypothesis. "A Theory of the Consumption Function". Princeton University Press. 1957. https://www.nber.org/books/frie57-1).
, ҵ ƴ϶ Ǵ ̷ ҵ ϴ. , ̷ ҵ ø ϸ, Һ ϰ ˴ϴ. 츮 (Ȥ ſī ܾ, ڵ ) ν ̷ ǽð ֽϴ.
ҵ氡 λӸ ƴ϶ ̱ 迡 ˴ϴ. , ̷ ҵ濡 ϰ ֽϴ. ó, ںа, Ͱ꼭 繫ǥ ν ̱ 谡 ϰ ִ Ȥ ϰ ִ ǽð ֽϴ.
ü ̱ ̳ ̱ 谡 ڽ ̷ Ȯ ϰ ϰ ˴ϴ. ̷ ( ) ݸ λ з ۿ ͷ Ÿϴ.
, 1 ä ͷ 1 ϰ , 10 ä ͷ 10 ϰ ǹմϴ. ư 10 ͷ 1 ͷ ӵ ȭ ȴٴ ̰, ݴ 10 ͷ 1 ͷ (ܱ ݸ ) ӵ ȭ ȴٴ Դϴ(1 ä 2 ä ſ 迡 ֽϴ. 10 ä ͷ 2 ä ͷ Ǹ, 10 ä ͷ 1 äͷ ˴ϴ).
, ϴ! ܱ ݸ ħü ˸ ȣ ƴ ٷ ̰Դϴ!
˾ ä̽ϱ? ˾ä . ٸ ٽ о ʽÿ. , ܱ ݸ ħü ƴ϶ ӵ ȭ ϰ Դϴ. ̹ ˰ ִٽ, , ̰ ħü ϴ ƴմϴ.
ٸ ħü ϴ ϱ? ̿ ؼ 2 캸 ϰڽϴ.
մϴ.
Ʈ
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