̷
The Future for Investors in 2005
- : ð Jeremy Siegel
- ű:
- ǻ: û / 478 / 2006-03 / 18,000
2004~2007 ġڿ õ å ã д ñ⿴ϴ. 2011 굵 ó å 뿩 б ̿ Ƿ ¶μ (ϰ ϸ ǻ Ұ ۸ а) ߾µ å å ϳԴϴ.
ū 밨 2006 о å 2008 ֽ ż Ϸ ʰ Ƽ ϴµ ߽ϴ. ּ о ߴµ, 2011 ֱ ݱ 3ۿ ʾҴ. ֽĽ ǥ 10, < > ã а ߾ û о νĵǾ Դϴ. ̹ İ ۼ ǥ ° б ϴ.
ڴ 1994 [ ð ֽ ̺ Stocks for the Long Run]( Դµ, 2014 (5E) å 2015 Ⱓ, [ֽĿ ϶]̰ İ ) 鼭 Ⱓ ģ ֽ ͷ ٸ ܺ ٴ ǹ(*) Ǿٰ մϴ. /м/ؼ ٷ å̶µ.
* ǹ,
1. ֽ Ⱓ ϰ ־ ϴ°?
2. ̺ ؼ Ʈ ڱȭ Ʈ ȭ Ͼ ΰ?
̷ ǹ ؼ ̷ ڴ ڴ 5η ڽ ְڴٰ մϴ.
1. , ߱ؾ Ư¡ ֽ ż ؾ
1, ġ
2, ο Ϳ ģ
2. ڸ ߿伺
3, ġ °
3. ̷ 츮 ȭ ῡ ϱ Ʈ
4, ȭ ۷ι
5, Ʈ
1, ġ
- ڴ < growth trap>̶ ڽ ٰ ڶմϴ^^
ڵ Ͽ ֵϰ Ȯ ϴ ʹ ϰ . α ֽ ż, ο ߱, ϴ ϴ Ӿ 忡 ߱ ڵ鿡 ᱹ ְ Ǿ ִ. ְ ڴ Ը ҵǴ Ÿ.
-> å ݿ ͷ̶ ڴ ΰ ġ ڰ ξ ٴ Ӹ ƴ϶ ڷ Ȯνְ ִµ. ǥ ʷ ǥ IBM Ĵ ڼͷ ؼ ݴϴ.
̴. ̵ 𰡿 ణ ̶ , ݿ ֽ ż ̴. ̵ , ǻ, , , õ Ȥ Ư ĥ ű Ȧ . 츮 ڵ к ִ ڵ ̷ ൿ ̴. - ̾, [ ]
å [ֽĿ ϶] εݵ带 , ۿ ٸ [ ̷] , ̺ 巹 忡 ٰ ֽϴ. ڴ Ȱؼ ֿ PERַ Ʈ ڼͷ øٴ ֽϴ.
ͷ ֽĿ ڵ Ʈ S&P500 ε ų 3% ͷ , ͷ ֽĿ ڵ Ʈ ͷ ų ͷ 2% Ҵ. S&P500 ε PER ֽ Ʈ ͷ S&P500 ε ų 3% , PER ֽ Ʈ ͷ εݵ庸 ų 2% Ҵ.
ٽ ִ. ʿ ȭ ΰ? ڻ ΰ? ع ߴ. ȭ ڻ ߵ 뵿ڿ ڵ ϰ żϰ ̴. ̰ ۷ι ع(global solution)̶ ϰ ʹ.
-> ڴ , ̺θ ӹ ̷ ĥ ū Ұ ذå α 鼭 ؼ α ϴ 屹 ãҽϴ. ٸ ڼͷ Ǵ ƴ Ӹ ƴ϶ ġ ݴ Ÿ ݴϴ.
ֽ ڵ ñѴ. м ٸ , <ġ> <> ϳ ؾ Ѵٰ . 츮 ̰ Ȯ ̶ . ġ Ϻκ̰ <ġ> ݺ Ұϴ. - , <ũ 1992 >
2, ο Ϳ ģ
- ߱Ǵ ڼͷ ο ƴ ̶ Ͱ Ÿ ݴϴ.
Ȯε Ȯ θ Ѵٴ ſ ̴. ٽ ڸ, ر װ 縦 Ȯ ִ ̴.
- ( п)û , FRB ٷ 2002 8 ߾Դϴ.
Ȯ ٴ ߾ ڴ ǰ߿ ݴѴٰ մϴ.
ִ ¿ <Žô(New Age)> ϴ м 翬 ٸ, ̶ մϴ. ó մϴ.
츮 ϴ ͺ ӵȴ. ̴ źڸ ϰ ȸǷڸ . ѹ Ȯϱ ϸ װ ƹ .
ڷ ѹ ȸ ι ϴ Ѵ. Ե ϴ ְ ֽ ִٸ, ȭϰ ڵƺ ƾ Ѵ. Ⱦ ֽ ְ ر ö ִ. , ſ ̴.
ֽ ִٴ ڵ ˾ ִ ٸ ¡ǥ ִ. ߿ Ģ ϳ ֽİ ̴. ̾ Ѵ. ֽĿ ϰ, Ҿ , ݴ ְ Ѵٸ ش ֽ Ⱦƾ Ѵ.
ְ Ͼ , ϰ ִٴ , ٺ(greater fool) ̷п ӵȴ. ϰ Ÿ ʴ´ٸ, żڴ 游 տ ִ ̴.
̵ ڽ 忡 ϴ ǰ ü , ̹ ߽ ġ ִ. 쿡 Ѵ. ̵ ̵ ʼ ̴.
- ιƮ Ƿ, [ո dz]
-> ŰĿ ߱ ϴ ̵
< ¸>
- ͷ ִ ֽ ϴ ִ ƴ϶ ȭ Ǵ ħü ִ ִ. ̵ ȿ ãƳ ߱ϰ, ְ ְ ġ ϴ ʿ Ư о߸ ϴ 濵 õߴ. ̷ Ư¡ ִ 忡 ̸ ڵ ֽ ߸ ϴ ̴.
ʰ ߰; ó ̴. ϴ ϴ ̷ ߰; ߿ ְ ų ̴ ̾߸ ó̴. ħü 忡 ϴ ִ ̾߸ û ȰȲ弼 ӿ Ը ۾ ֽ ƺ ξ ̴.
- ġ, [̱ Beating the Street in 1993]
3, ְ ġ °: , ߿伺
- ͷ Ȯ ٿ ̸, ͷ ڵ鿡 ־ٴ ̸ ش.
- ϴ 10, < > Ե Ʈ ٷ Դϴ.
ڴ ȸ簡 繫ǥ ġ ȸٸ ȸ翡 ϴ ŷΰ? -> ؾ Ѵ. ϴ. ذ ʴ 信 ڴ մϴ.
ȸ縦 ְ ֵ鿡 ִٸ ֽ ̴. ̰ ָ ʴ ϴ, ̾ ȣߴ ̴. ȸ 濵 ٸ, ȿ κ Ƿ ̷ ڴ ȸϴ ̴.
- ( )ϱ Ȥ ִµ, ϴ. ̷ ǹ Ǵؼ ( )߽ϴ.
· ֿ ϴ 濵 θ Ժη ɼ ִ.
濵 Ϻϰ ȰѴٸ, ߿ ʴ. 迡 ֿ 濵 ŷ Ϳ 濵 Ȯ ִ ٽ ҷ ۿѴ.
ϴ ڵ ༼ Ʈ Ӹ ƴ϶ θ ų ִٴ ˰ ̴. ְ 纸 ̷ Ȳ ༼ Ѵٸ, ͷ ̴. ͷ ִ ǥ .
༼ ڵ ߵ߸ ϴ 뽺 Ӹ ƴ϶ ڵ ް ͷ ϰ Ͽ. ֽ ͷ Ͱ 翡 ƴ϶ ϴ ְ ؼ ̴. ֽ ڵ п ۽ο , ָ ̾߸ ¸ڰ Ǵ ̴.
-> ֽ ְ ֱ Դϴ.
༼ 忡 ڿ ȴ.
1. ڷ þ ֽ Ʈ ġ ϶ ش. ߰ ֽ ༼ 忡 ٽ ԵDZ ڸ ༼ ȣ(bear market protector)̶ θ.
2. ߰ Ե ֽ ̷ ͷ û ų ̴. ڴ ְ ϸ ͷ (return accelerator) Ѵ.
4, ȭ ۷ι
- Դ ߾ ϳ ִµ, װ ٷ ̴. Ÿ ̷ Ǵϰ ϴ ̶ ȴ. – Ʈ
-> 縦 ̷ մϴ.
ֽ ͷ ȸ
- ֽ ͷ äǺ ٴ ǿ ݹϴ ̴. ֽ ̵ ֽڸ . ֽ ֽ ϴ Ⱓ ִ.
5, Ʈ
- ε ڸ ̵ Ʈ մϴ. DOW Ǵ S&P500 ߿ PER Ȥ 10 ߷ DOW 10 Ǵ S&P 10 Ʈ ϸ, ܼϰ DOW Ǵ S&P500 ε ͷ Ȯ ˴ϴ. ̸ Ȱؼ ϰ ø Ʈ մϴ. 1957~2003 Ⱓ ְ Ʈ ϴ ũ ؼ̿ ͷ(ͷ: 26.6% / S&P500: 11.2%) ( Ұ)ּ̾ Ȯ ֽϴ.
ڴ л Ʈ ϴ մϴ. (츮 ÿ ֽ ٴ Ͱ )ؿ ֽڿ ŷ ϴ ϴ.
̷ ϱ ֽ ڸ ϼ. ġڹ^^
- ڴ ϳ . ϰ ŷ ϴ ڵ鿡 Ŀٶ ȿ ־. ̷ ڵ鿡Ե .
ġڸ õ 35 װ Ʈ嵵 ߴ. ΰ Ư ư ϴ ϴ.
- (1985)
:
1. å ϰ ( å ) ǹ̸ οϴ ֽ ڴ , ܺ ͷ ٴ () Ȯ ־ٴ ֽϴ. Ư 1929 9 23 Ȳ ְ ϱ DOW ְ 25⸸ ٽ 1954 11 24, ߴٸ 1929 1,000 4,400 Ǿٴ, 6% ̻ ´ٰ ϴ κԴϴ.
̹ 7⸸ ° 鼭 ˰ ڰ Ÿ ϸ鼭 ñδ ̷ ħ ְ ִٴ ̴ϴ. [The Future for Investors] ƴ . κ ٰ ϴ å 鼭 ( )ٷ ڽ ϳ ݰ ½ ̼Ҹ ҽϴ.
2. ̹ å ؼ İ 3 ϴ. İ ۼ ̰ ε ˴ϴ. ֽ ʰ ܸϴ ְ ϰ ߴµ, õϰ ֽϴ.
( 1)