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ư ų [ ȭ ̱ ]

ȭ ̱

A Random walk down Wall Street in 2007

- : ư G. ų Burton G. Malkiel

- ű: / ȫ

- ǻ: ǰ / 2009-01 / 509 / \\23,000

 

7 å ó а İ ⵵ ߽ϴ. о ֿ 5ϰ ؿ ٳ ģ ƴƴ оϴ. ռ İ ٽ 鼭 ̹ ְ ʹٴ ǻ͸ Ѱ Ǿϴ.

-> 2009⿡ ۼߴ İ ڿ ٿϴ.

 

1973⿡ ó å ڴ 鼭 ϰ ֽϴ. ڴ ǿ ڰ Ȱų ݵ忡 ϴ ͺ εݵ忡 ϴ ξ ϴٰ Ͽµ, ̷ ڽ ϰ ϰ Ǿٸ ڷ Դϴ.

 

1969ʿ S&P500 εݵ忡 1 ޷ Ͽ Ͽ , 2006 42 2õ ޷ Ǿ, ݵ忡 ߴٸ 28 4õ ޷ Ǿ ̶ մϴ. εݵ ڰ ݵ忡 Ͽ ڱ 50% ҷ Ŷ ̴ϴ.

 

̷ ȿ尡 ġ ̹ κԴϴ. κ ֽ ݵ尡 ̱ Ѵٰ Ͽ. ̴ ݵ Ǹ/ ŷ ε, ׷ κ ݵŴ ݵ忡 ϴ εݵó Ͽٴ ū ֽϴ.

 

<̺ IBM>- <>- żؼ ս ׷ ִٰ ˷ 򰡵 ֽ żؼ 񿡼 ս ġ ϱ Դϴ. κ ݵŴ ڽ ʱ ܺ ġ ʱ ̱⵵ մϴ.

 

̹ б⿡ ߿ ū ڿ å ̵ ҰϿٴ ̴ϴ. Ƹ õ а å ־ Ǵµ. ڰ å ϴ.

 

- , [ڰġ ̷ The Theory of Investment Value]

- ׷̾ ̺ , [ м Security Analysis]

- ̳ʵ ν [, ȭ Ϲ ̷ The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money] – ߴ ̷ ǥڷ ν Ǿ κ^^

- ιƮ Ƿ, [̻ Irrational Excuberance]

- Ͼ īʸ, [ Behavioral Finance]

- Ÿ , [ ɸ Psychologie des foules]

- , [ ̸ Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds]

- ī, [ȸ ǰ The South Sea Bubble]

- ط 2, [1929 Ŵ 㱸 The Great Myth of 1929]

- ִ ̽, [Ӵ The Money Game]

- 2, [ Ʈ ֳ? Where are the Customers Yachts?]

- , [ Investments]

- , [ Hedgehogging]

- ظ , [Ʈ Portfolio Selection]

- ͽ & ιƮ ͸, [ʿ췮 In Search of Excellence]

- , [ո ô ո Rational Investing in Irrational Times]

- , [ڸ ̴ Winning the Losers Game]

- ص , [ ũ A Non-Random Walk Down Wall Street]

- ӽ ׽, [ƮƮ ϴ What Works on Wall Street]

- ð, [ֽ ̺ Stocks for the Long Run]

 

 

̰ 缭 ִ, [ ̸ ] ǵ ߿ ƫ South See ǿ ؼ Ұϴµ, ְ ذ մϴ. 20 ۵ ͳݹ 縦 ٷ鼭 츮 ݴϴ.

 

ű ó ڴ ڵ ϱ ɷڶ ִµ. ߿ ״ ƫ ⸦ ٷ κ űϴ. Ƽ ᱹ ⿡ ϴ / ݴϴ.

 

<< ö ٰ ߴ ģ ģô ø Ѻ鼭 谡 ʹ. 뿭 ϶ Ȥ Ѹġ . Ȥ ̰ܳ ״ . 1634~1637 ӵ ƫ Ⱓ ƫ ؼ ū ɿ , , ߴ. õ ر ö. .

 

dz ׷ ᱹ ġ ö Ϻ ڼ Ͽ ȱ ߴ. ٸ 鵵 ڸ . ̰ Ż ó , Ȳ ƴ.>>

 

1929 ̱ ÿ Ȳ < > ٷ , ڴ մϴ.

 

<< 迡 ߾ 忡 ϴ ƫ dz ϰ ۾ ̾. 忡 ʴ. . л ֽ Ʈ żؼ ϱ⸸ ص Ǫ ŵ ִ. ϱ Ȥ ܱⰣ ڰ Ƿ dz ۾ Ǵ 浿̴.>>

 

 

ġڵ ϴ ߰ ̷ м ǥǴ ߴ ̷ ϸ鼭 ڰ մϴ. ġڸ ϴ μ <߰ ̷> , ⺻ м ȿ ٴ ű鼭 忡 ݹϷ մϴ.

 

<<⺻ м ׷ϰ ִ. ù°, м Ȯ ִ. °, Ǻм <ġ> 򰡰 Ʋ ִ. °, ߸ ٷ ʾƼ ְ ġ 𸥴.>>

 

ù° ° ׷ ִٰ ϴ. ٸ ׷ ġڴ <> Ȯ ¿ ڸ մϴ. , ġ 100̶ ġڴ ġ 50 ݿ żν ġ м Ŀ ִ ϴ. ° ׷ ġڴ ʿϴٸ, 忡 ġ ˾ , γϸ ٸϴ. ̸ ⿡ 1⿡ ̻ ֿ ϴ γϸ ٸµ ߿ ֽϴ.

 

ڴ <ũ ڸ ħ> 忡 ڿ ϰ ִµ, , Ȥ ȸȰ ϸ ĸ ȹؾ 鿡 ޾Ƶ鿩 űϴ.

 

<< ʾҰ 50밡 Ǿ ൵ ݵ ī ִٸ  ؾ ϴ°? ȶ ȹϱⰡ ξ ̴. ׷ ƹ ʾ ȹ ִ. Ҿ ð ã Ƿ Ȱ Ը ̰ α׷ ؾ Ѵ. ڸ Ű鼭 ڷ ̷ ۿ . . ׷ ð . ϰ Ģ Ȱ϶. ˼ϰ Ȱϰ մ . ̷ ϱ ڱ ʿϴٸ ״ ͺ ڱ ڿ ִ ̶ ϶.>>

 

<ֱ > 忡 ڴ 20 ̻(ڴ Ϲ ˷ 10 踦 ϳ׿) Ѵٸ Ȯ ֽڰ ͷ ׺ ڱⰣ ªٸ ڻ ʿϴٰ մϴ. ֽ ̵ ̰ ֽ ̶ 䵥. ֽĺ 100 ̸ ŭ ġϴ Դϴ.

-> ߽ϴ 2 Ȱ 100% ֽ ϴ ϴٴ ֽϴ.

 

ڴ õ ϴ 4.5% ع մϴ. ̴ ų õ ġ4.5% ̳ ϸ 100 Ƶ ʴ´ٴ ǵ. ٸ ̷а ٸ ⵵ 򰡾 4.5% ƴ ڻ򰡾 4.5% մϴ. ׷ 򰡾 ȭ ų Ȱ 龦 ϴ ִٴ ǵ. ̿ ٿ ÷̼ 2% ̹Ƿ Ȱ ϱ ؼ ų 2% ÷ մϴ.

 

, õ 10̶ 1 õ 4.5% 0.45, 2 4.5% * 1.02 = 4.59%̹Ƿ 0.459, Ȱ 4.59% * 1.02 = 4.6818, 0.46818 ˴ϴ. ·ŭ Ȱ ÷ν Ȱ ִٴ ǵ, ̰ ˴ϴ.

 

ڴ 2007 , õ ڻ ֽ:ä 50:50 ϸ 6.5% ͷ Ƿ ̷ Ȱ ϸ ó õ ġ ִٰ մϴ. ̴ Ǵ ͷ ֽ, 7.5% ä, 5.5% ϿǷ 4.5% ع ϰ 4.5% ϴ ݸ Ȳ Դϴ.

 

 

å ߵ ׷̾ ͺ信 εݵ ߰ ֽݵ庸 εݵ尡 ͷ ̶µ ġ 鵵 εݵ ؼ Ͽϴ. ° а ִ ϴ μ ̸ְ鼭 Ÿ , [] , ׷̾ ̷ ߴٴ ϸ鼭 ׿ ƹ 򰡸 ʾҴٴ ⸦ ϰ ֽϴ.

 

<<1976 ׷̾ ױ ͺ信 ̷ ߴ.

̻ ġ ȸ ã Ǻм ϴ ƴմϴ. Բ 縦 40 ̰ ִ Ȱ̾ Ȳ ٲϴ.

I am no longer an advocate of elaborate techniques of security analysis in order to find superior value opportunities. This was a rewarding activity, say, 40 years ago, when our textbook Graham & Dodd was first published; but the situation has changed [: P.313]

 

׷̾ 6 ص ũ ȿ ̶ ߾. Ƹ ״ ̷ ǹ̿ ȿ νϰ ־ ̷ ̿ ʾ ̴. ׷̾ . ״ ׷̾ ̻ȭ߰ ׸ ڷμ μ ߴ. – [] P.501

 

ġڶ ̱ ִٰ մϴ. ̴ ġ Ͽ ̺ 巹 ڷḦ ܼ PER, PBR Ʈ ξ ɰϴ ־ϴ.

 

å ũ ϴ ֽڸ ؾ Ѵٴ Ȱ κ ݵ ֽĿ ڸ ؾ Ѵٴ Դϴ. ̻ Ұϴٸ鼭 ŷ ϰ ݵ尡 ٴ ݵ Ⱓ ص ̱ ذ , ġ װ 46 ̿ ŭ ׷ ־ 𸥴ٴ () 鼭 ȿ尡 εݵ忡 ڰ ּ ڹ մϴ.

 

ڴ ϸ鼭 δ Ŵ ̷ ʴ´ٸ Ŷ ٴ ܼ ̸鼭 - ̶ ޱ - ڸ ȣϴ ϱ⵵ մϴ. -> 2009⿡ İ

 

ڴ ڰ ִٴ մϴ. ̴ ġڸ ϸ ڴ ̴ٰ ϰ ϴ Ͱ մϴ. ׷ εݵ忡 ϴ ּ ڹ ϴ ޸ ġڰ ּ ڹ̶ ϴ Դϴ. ʹ ۷ űϴ. (P.38)

 

<<ٵ ߿ ڰ ִٴ ̴. ڵ ܷ ڻ ø ִ ̴. ޺ ӵ ̴ ¥ϴ. ǰ 񽺿 ο ̵ ڹĿ Ű ϵ ڱ ȴ. ڴ 밳 ڿ ȣɰ Ͽ ̴.>>

 

2009-12-17 ۼߴ İ

 

庯ȭ ̱ A Random walk down Wall Street in 2007

- : ư G. ų Burton G. Malkiel

- ű: / ȫ

- ǻ: ǰ /509 / \\23,000

 

̺ 巹 ߻ 鼭 å ˰ Ǿϴ. ׻ ׷ ߻ å б⸦ ٷ ߾µ, а Ǿϴ. μ ظ ѱ Դϴ.

 

߻ ȿ 尡 մϴ. ׷ ߻ ڰ ̰ ̸ ū ִٰ մϴ. ߽ϴ. 򰡵 ֽ ã ż ġ ݿ ݿ ٸ ߱ϴ ġڿ ϴ ̷̱ Դϴ.

 

忡 ݿȴٴ ȿ 尡 鼭 аǿ DZ ̷̶ ˰ ʹٴ ʾҾϴ. ׷ ߻ 巹 ġڵ þ ȿ 尡 ľ ִ åν õ å а ;ϴ.

 

± ڴ پ ̸鼭 ڴ ʰ ڿ Դϴ. ڽ 1 1 忡 մϴ. ڽ Ͼ ޶ ε, Ͼֱ ߽ϴ. 1973 ⿡ ó å ڴ 7 ° 2007 DZ 35 ϸ鼭 ½ϴ. åӰ ִ Դϴ. ħ ϴ. ƴ϶ ϴٴ ̰.  ± ƴ ״, ʰڽϱ?

 

ڴ ڴ Ȱų ݵ忡 ϴ ͺ εݵ忡 ϴ ξ ϴ մϴ. ª ϳ 509 ʿ ̸ å ڰ ϰ ϴ ƴϾ ͽϴ. δٸ ︱ , Ȯϰ ڰ Ǵ å, ϰ ; ϴ.

 

̷ ְ ٴ ũ ǥǴ ȿ 尡 Ǵ ̷ ġڵ ϴ ߰ ̷ м ǥǴ ߴ ̷ մϴ. ׸ ̷п Ѱ踦 ϸ Ǹ ڹ εݵ մϴ.

 

· ϰ ͷ ݵ尡 ڷ մϴ. ε ݵ  ٴ ͱ ϰ Ѹŭ, , źΰ մϴ.

 

10 , 繫п 츮 ϴ ս ̷ ʸ ־ϴ. սǿ Ϳ 2.5 ٴµ. , 鸸 ս 鸸 ͺ 2.5 뽺ٴ Դϴ. ݾ սǰ Ϳ ִٸ, 2.5 質 ũٰ ְڽϴ^^

 

츮 ġ ׷̾ 1976 ױ ̳ θƮ ΰ ͺ信 ȿ ĸ Ѵٴ ߴٰ մϴ. ׷̾ å ó ⰣǴ 40 ־ Ȳ ũ ٲٰ մϴ. ̱ Ȳ̶ ϰ, ̳ پ , ׷̾ ȥ ¿ Ǽ ϰ ͽϴ.

 

4 , ǿ ̵ ũ ڸ ħ ڸ Ϸݴϴ. ڸ ȣϴ ڸ Ģ ˷ݴϴ. شǴ ̶ Ű ϴ.

 

1. 5Ⱓ ̻ ̾ ȸ ż ϶.

2. ո ߰ ġ ݿ ֽ .

3. ڵ ߴ ŭ 丮 ׷ ֽ ͵ ȴ.

4. Ÿ 󵵸 ٿ.

 

õõ ڰ Ǵ ν ε ݵ ڸ ϴ ڴ Ÿſ ڼ 絵Ϳ ϰ ϰ ֽϴ. 츮 ǿ ֽ ݵ Կ ǰ, ֽľ絵Ϳ ΰ ʴ´ٴ å ״ /ϱ⿣ ֽϴ.

 

׷ ϸ鼭 ݺ ũ ν ֽڸ ϴ ڰ ڸ ȣϴ ڶ εݵ ڱ ҷ⿡ Ȯ ־ٰ մϴ. å ׷ 鿡 Ǹ ̰ Ǿٰ մϴ.

 

ϴ ٸ ⺻ м ߿ϰ ϴ ġ 밡 Ѱᰰ εݵ Ѵٴ ڴ ߰ ̷̶ Ѱ踦 , ȿ 尡 ñ ְ, ġ ݿ Ѵ ͰϿٰ ϴ.

 

ĥ å оµ, ῡ ǻ ð ؼ, ı ۼ ʾϴ. ó Ų а ִµ, å ù 忡 νŸ ΰݽ ʴ´ ߴٴ ڵκ Ÿ ϰ ֽϴ. ̰, , νŸ ˴ϴ. ڰ å ΰ Ÿµ, å οǴ ۱͸ ű鼭 ̸ Դϴ.

 

, ߰

 




ƮƮ ũα (0) ֱֱ(0)
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 Ѹ ( 2)

  1. ݰ
    ݰ | 16.12/21 15:38
    |
    ҽϴ. ϽŴ 12 ȸ ǰ ֽϴ. ߺƾ ڽϴ
    ۾
    • | 16.12/22 07:37
      ȸϰ ִٴ.. ̳׿. ŭ ͷ þ ε.. Ⱓ ϱ⸦ ٶ Դϴ^^
  2. ؼ
    ؼ | 20.04/23 22:05
    |
    ֽ ȵ ȸ ʳԴϴ. 庯ȭ ̱ ڸ а ó ġڴ Ǿ ġ ٷ ڹΰ DZ å ; ˻ ϰ Ǵ Ƴ׿. ٸ ȸʳ ־ ϳ Ұŵ. ͷ ϴ ƾ ϴ± ϰ . ׷ ãƼ ù ũ ̷ аԵǾ  ̷ ִ 質 ϰ ۼڸ 캸 ̼̳׿. а ϴ.
    ۾
    • | 20.04/28 07:59
      ؼ Բ ּ̳׿. ڿ ˸  𸣰 ٵ.. Ŭϰ , ̴. ߵ, ׷̾ ħ ̰ ׷ Ͻϴ.

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