ȭ ̱
A Random walk down Wall Street in 2007
- : ư G. ų Burton G. Malkiel
- ű: / ȫ
- ǻ: ǰ / 2009-01 / 509 / \\23,000
7 å ó а İ ߽ϴ. о ֿ 5ϰ ؿ ٳ ģ ƴƴ оϴ. ռ İ ٽ 鼭 ̹ ְ ʹٴ ǻ Ѱ Ǿϴ.
-> 2009 ۼߴ İ ڿ ٿϴ.
1973 ó å ڴ 鼭 ϰ ֽϴ. ڴ ǿ ڰ Ȱų ݵ忡 ϴ ͺ εݵ忡 ϴ ξ ϴٰ Ͽµ, ̷ ڽ ϰ ϰ Ǿٸ ڷ Դϴ.
1969ʿ S&P500 εݵ忡 1 Ͽ Ͽ , 2006 42 2õ Ǿ, ݵ忡 ߴٸ 28 4õ Ǿ ̶ մϴ. εݵ ڰ ݵ忡 Ͽ ڱ 50% ҷ Ŷ ̴ϴ.
̷ ȿ尡 ġ ̹ κԴϴ. κ ֽ ݵ尡 ̱ Ѵٰ Ͽ. ̴ ݵ Ǹ/ ŷ ε, κ ݵŴ ݵ忡 ϴ εݵó Ͽٴ ū ֽϴ.
<̺ IBM>
̹ б ߿ ū ڿ å ̵ ҰϿٴ ̴ϴ. Ƹ õ а å ־ Ǵµ. ڰ å ϴ.
- , [ڰġ ̷ The Theory of Investment Value]
- ̾ ̺ , [ м Security Analysis]
- ̳ʵ ν [, ȭ Ϲ ̷ The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money] – ߴ ̷ ǥڷ ν Ǿ κ^^
- ιƮ Ƿ, [̻ Irrational Excuberance]
- Ͼ īʸ, [繫 Behavioral Finance]
- Ÿ , [ ɸ Psychologie des foules]
- , [ ̸ Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds]
- ī, [ȸ ǰ The South Sea Bubble]
- ط 2, [1929 Ŵ 㱸 The Great Myth of 1929]
- ִ ̽, [Ӵ The Money Game]
- 2, [ Ʈ ֳ? Where are the Customers Yachts?]
- , [ Investments]
- , [ Hedgehogging]
- ظ , [Ʈ Portfolio Selection]
- ͽ & ιƮ , [ʿ췮 In Search of Excellence]
- , [ո ô ո Rational Investing in Irrational Times]
- , [ڸ ̴ Winning the Losers Game]
- ص , [ ũ A Non-Random Walk Down Wall Street]
- ӽ , [ƮƮ ϴ What Works on Wall Street]
- ð, [ֽ ̺ Stocks for the Long Run]
̰ 缭 ִ, [ ̸ ] ǵ ߿ ƫ South See ǿ ؼ Ұϴµ, ְ ذ մϴ. 20 ۵ ͳݹ 縦 ٷ鼭 츮 ݴϴ.
ű ó ڴ ڵ ϱ ɷڶ ִµ. ߿ ״ ƫ ⸦ ٷ κ űϴ. Ƽ ᱹ ϴ / ݴϴ.
<< ö ٰ ߴ ģ ģô ø Ѻ鼭 谡 ʹ. 뿭 ϶ Ȥ Ѹġ . Ȥ ̰ܳ ״ . 뷫 1634~1637 ӵ ƫ Ⱓ ƫ ؼ ū ɿ , , ߴ. õ ر ö. .
dz ᱹ ġ ö Ϻ ڼ Ͽ ȱ ߴ. ٸ 鵵 ڸ . ̰ Ż ó , Ȳ ƴ.>>
1929 ̱ ÿ Ȳ < > ٷ , ڴ մϴ.
<< 迡 ߾ 忡 ϴ ƫ dz ϰ ۾ ̾. 忡 ʴ. . л ֽ Ʈ żؼ ϱ⸸ ص Ǫ ŵ ִ. ϱ Ȥ ܱⰣ ڰ Ƿ dz ۾ Ǵ 浿̴.>>
ġڵ ϴ ߰ ̷ м ǥǴ ߴ ̷ ϸ鼭 ڰ մϴ. ġڸ ϴ μ <߰ ̷> , ⺻ м ȿ ٴ ű鼭 忡 ݹϷ մϴ.
<<⺻ м ϰ ִ. ù°, м Ȯ ִ. °, Ǻм <ġ> Ʋ ִ. °, ߸ ٷ ʾƼ ְ ġ .>>
ù° ° ִٰ ϴ. ٸ ġڴ <> Ȯ ¿ ڸ մϴ. , ġ 100̶ ġڴ ġ 50 ݿ żν ġ м Ŀ ִ ϴ. ° ġڴ ʿϴٸ, 忡 ġ ˾ , γϸ ٸϴ. ̸ 1 ̻ ֿ ϴ γϸ ٸµ ߿ ֽϴ.
ڴ <ũ ڸ ħ> 忡 ڿ ϰ ִµ, , Ȥ ȸȰ ϸ ĸ ȹؾ 鿡 Ƶ鿩 űϴ.
<< ʾҰ 50밡 Ǿ ൵ ݵ ī ִٸ ؾ ϴ°? ȶ ȹϱⰡ ξ ̴. ƹ ʾ ȹ ִ. Ҿ ð ã Ƿ Ȱ Ը ̰ α ؾ Ѵ. ڸ Ű鼭 ڷ ̷ ۿ . . ð . ϰ Ģ Ȱ϶. ˼ϰ Ȱϰ մ . ̷ ϱ ڱ ʿϴٸ ״ ͺ ڱ ڿ ִ ̶ ϶.>>
<ֱ > 忡 ڴ 20 ̻(ڴ Ϲ ˷ 10 踦 ϳ) Ѵٸ Ȯ ֽڰ ͷ ڱⰣ ªٸ ڻ ʿϴٰ մϴ. ֽ ̵ ̰ ֽ ̶ 䵥. ֽĺ 100 ̸ ŭ ġϴ Դϴ.
-> ߽ϴ 2 Ȱ 100% ֽ ϴ ϴٴ ֽϴ.
ڴ õ ϴ 4.5% ع մϴ. ̴ ų õ ġ4.5% ̳ ϸ 100 Ƶ ʴ´ٴ ǵ. ٸ ̷а ٸ 4.5% ƴ ڻ 4.5% մϴ. ȭ ų Ȱ 龦 ϴ ִٴ ǵ. ̿ ٿ ÷̼ 2% ̹Ƿ Ȱ ϱ ؼ ų 2% ÷ մϴ.
, õ 10̶ 1 õ 4.5% 0.45, 2 4.5% * 1.02 = 4.59%̹Ƿ 0.459, Ȱ 4.59% * 1.02 = 4.6818, 0.46818 ˴ϴ. ·ŭ Ȱ ÷ν Ȱ ִٴ ǵ, ̰ ˴ϴ.
ڴ 2007 , õ ڻ ֽ:ä 50:50 ϸ 6.5% ͷ Ƿ ̷ Ȱ ϸ ó õ ġ ִٰ մϴ. ̴ Ǵ ͷ ֽ, 7.5% ä, 5.5% ϿǷ 4.5% ع ϰ 4.5% ϴ ݸ Ȳ Դϴ.
å ߵ ̾ ͺ信 εݵ ߰ ֽݵ庸 εݵ尡 ͷ ̶µ ġ 鵵 εݵ ؼ Ͽϴ. ° а ִ ϴ μ ̸ְ鼭 Ÿ , [] , ̾ ̷ ߴٴ ϸ鼭 ƹ ʾҴٴ ⸦ ϰ ֽϴ.
<<1976 ̾ ױ ͺ信 ̷ ߴ.
̻ ġ ȸ ã Ǻм ϴ ƴմϴ. Բ 縦 40 ̰ ִ Ȱ̾ Ȳ ٲϴ.
I am no longer an advocate of elaborate techniques of security analysis in order to find superior value opportunities. This was a rewarding activity, say, 40 years ago, when our textbook Graham & Dodd was first published; but the situation has changed [: P.313]
̾ 6 ص ũ ȿ ̶ ߾. Ƹ ״ ̷ ǹ̿ ȿ νϰ ־ ̷ ̿ ʾ ̴. ̾ . ״ ̾ ̻ȭ߰ ڷμ μ ߴ. – [] P.501
ġڶ ̱ ִٰ մϴ. ̴ ġ Ͽ ̺ 巹 ڷḦ ܼ PER, PBR Ʈ ξ ɰϴ ־ϴ.
å ũ ϴ ֽڸ ؾ Ѵٴ Ȱ κ ݵ ֽĿ ڸ ؾ Ѵٴ Դϴ. ̻ Ұϴٸ鼭 ŷ ϰ ݵ尡 ٴ ݵ Ⱓ ص ̱ ذ , ġ װ 46 ̿ ŭ ־ ٴ () 鼭 ȿ尡 εݵ忡 ڰ ּ ڹ մϴ.
ڴ ϸ鼭 δ Ŵ ̷ ʴ´ٸ Ŷ ٴ ܼ ̸鼭 - ̶ ޱ - ڸ ȣϴ ϱ մϴ. -> 2009 İ
ڴ ڰ ִٴ մϴ. ̴ ġڸ ϸ ڴ ̴ٰ ϰ ϴ Ͱ մϴ. εݵ忡 ϴ ּ ڹ ϴ ġڰ ּ ڹ̶ ϴ Դϴ. ʹ ۷ űϴ. (P.38)
<<ٵ ߿ ڰ ִٴ ̴. ڵ ܷ ڻ ø ִ ̴. ӵ ̴ ¥ϴ. ǰ ο ̵ ڹĿ Ű ϵ ڱ ȴ. ڴ 밳 ڿ ȣɰ Ͽ ̴.>>
2009-12-17 ۼߴ İ
庯ȭ ̱ A Random walk down Wall Street in 2007
- : ư G. ų Burton G. Malkiel
- ű: / ȫ
- ǻ: ǰ /509 / \\23,000
̺ 巹 鼭 å ˰ Ǿϴ. å б⸦ ٷ ߾µ, а Ǿϴ. μ ظ ѱ Դϴ.
巹 ȿ 尡 մϴ. ڰ ̰ ̸ ū ִٰ մϴ. ߽ϴ. ֽ ã ż ġ ݿ ݿ ٸ ߱ϴ ġڿ ϴ ̷̱ Դϴ.
忡 ݿȴٴ ȿ 尡 鼭 аǿ DZ ̷̶ ˰ ʹٴ ʾҾϴ. 巹 ġڵ þ ȿ 尡 ľ ִ åν õ å а ;ϴ.
± ڴ پ ̸鼭 ڴ ʰ ڿ Դϴ. ڽ 1 1 忡 մϴ. ڽ Ͼ ε, Ͼֱ ߽ϴ. 1973 ó å ڴ 7 ° 2007 DZ 35 ϸ鼭 ½ϴ. åӰ ִ Դϴ. ħ ϴ. ƴ϶ ϴٴ ̰. ± ƴ ״, ʰڽϱ?
ڴ ڴ Ȱų ݵ忡 ϴ ͺ εݵ忡 ϴ ξ ϴ մϴ. ª ϳ 509 ʿ ̸ å ڰ ϰ ϴ ƴϾ ͽϴ. δٸ ︱ , Ȯϰ ڰ Ǵ å, ϰ ; ϴ.
̷ ְ ٴ ũ ǥǴ ȿ 尡 Ǵ ̷ ġڵ ϴ ߰ ̷ м ǥǴ ߴ ̷ մϴ. ̷п Ѱ踦 ϸ Ǹ ڹ εݵ մϴ.
· ϰ ͷ ݵ尡 ڷ մϴ. ε ݵ ٴ ͱ ϰ Ѹŭ, , źΰ մϴ.
10 , 繫п 츮 ϴ ս ̷ ʸ ־ϴ. սǿ Ϳ 2.5 ٴµ. , 鸸 ս 鸸 ͺ 2.5 뽺ٴ Դϴ. ݾ սǰ Ϳ ִٸ, 2.5 質 ũٰ ְڽϴ^^
츮 ġ ̾ 1976 ױ ̳ θƮ ΰ ͺ信 ȿ ĸ Ѵٴ ߴٰ մϴ. ̾ å ó ⰣǴ 40 ־ Ȳ ũ ٲٰ մϴ. ̱ Ȳ̶ ϰ, ̳ پ , ̾ ȥ ¿ Ǽ ϰ ͽϴ.
4 , ǿ ̵ ũ ڸ ħ ڸ Ϸݴϴ. ڸ ȣϴ ڸ Ģ ˷ݴϴ. شǴ ̶ Ű ϴ.
1. 5Ⱓ ̻ ̾ ȸ ż ϶.
2. ո ߰ ġ ݿ ֽ .
3. ڵ ߴ ŭ 丮 ֽ ͵ ȴ.
4. Ÿ ٿ.
õõ ڰ Ǵ ν ε ݵ ڸ ϴ ڴ Ÿſ ڼ 絵Ϳ ϰ ϰ ֽϴ. 츮 ǿ ֽ ݵ Կ ǰ, ֽľ絵Ϳ ΰ ʴ´ٴ å ״ /ϱ ֽϴ.
ϸ鼭 ݺ ũ ν ֽڸ ϴ ڰ ڸ ȣϴ ڶ εݵ ڱ ҷ Ȯ ־ٰ մϴ. å 鿡 Ǹ ̰ Ǿٰ մϴ.
ϴ ٸ ⺻ м ߿ϰ ϴ ġ 밡 Ѱᰰ εݵ Ѵٴ ڴ ߰ ̷̶ Ѱ踦 , ȿ 尡 ñ ְ, ᱹ ġ ݿ Ѵ ͰϿٰ ϴ.
ĥ å оµ, ῡ ǻ ð ؼ, ı ۼ ʾϴ. ó Ų а ִµ, å ù 忡 νŸ ΰݽ ʴ´ ߴٴ ڵκ Ÿ ϰ ֽϴ. ̰, , νŸ ˴ϴ. ڰ å ΰ Ÿµ, å οǴ ۱ ű鼭 ̸ Դϴ.
, ߰
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