Ÿ
ġڷ е ġ 弼 Ѵ. ġ 弼 ұ? 츮 ְ ġ ݿ ñ⸦ ϱ ڸ ϴ ƴѰ? ڴ ġڰ ƴ϶ ڰ Ǿ .
Investment Clock
ٸ ȯ ⳪ ְŬ ٸ ͷ ̴ Ѵ. Ⱑ Ʒ ִ Ȳ (defensive), ִ ȣȲ ȯ(cyclical) ڰ Ÿ. ȭǴ Ⱓ ġ(value), ȭǴ Ⱓ (growth) ̴.
ó: Security Analysis on Wall Street
ѱ Sector Rotation
̼ 캸 ؼ Ŭ Ǹ ʿ ϴµ, Ŭ ƴ϶ ְŬ Ͽ. ̴ Ŭ Ǿ active ϸ ְ ȸ ִ ִ ݸ Ŭ ѳ 麰 ľ ִ.
KOSPI ̿ 鱸 (߾) ռͷ
ó: ϳ
1990 2000 Ⱓ ְͷ ŵ 麰 , ȸ鿡 ξå ¹ ִ Ǽ ٸ 麸 ʰͷ , ħü鿡 ʼҺ̰ų 庮 ϰ ִ ķ, ż ٸ ְ ʰͷ Ͽ.
Sector Rotation using Style Indices
Ⱓ ڵ ֽĽ忡 ġ(value strategy) ƿ Դ. Ÿ ǥ KOSPI 麰 뼺 ǥ ãƺ Ѵ.
麰 м õ ǥ
ó: ϳ
Factor Performance
* Most Attractive – Benchmark, Most Attractive – Least Attractive
ó: ϳ
1. ȸ (Turnaround, Cyclical)
Ȳ ݵϱ ϴ ȸ鿡 强 ְ, PBR ̿ ڰ ڼ . ݸ P/EBITDA . Ͱ 帧 δٴ ⺻ Cyclical Ѵ. Ⱑ ȣ ʾ 帧 Ȱ ʴ ϴ Ͼֿ ؾ Ѵ. PBR ٸ ݻ÷ȭ̴.
2. Ȯ屹 (Cyclical , Growth PER)
ֽĽ Ͽ ± Ȯ屹鿡 强 , PER ̿ Ÿ. Կ ͵ Ͽ ϰ ִ ͼش ְ 䰡 ̷ ϱ ̴. ݸ ͼġٴ ϴµ 帧̳ ڻ갡ġ ̿ Ÿ.
3. 𱹸 ( ġ)
ֽĽ ϶ϱ ϴ 𱹸鿡 ġ PBR PER ̿ Ÿ. ҾȰ Ʈ鼭 强ٴ ġ ߿伺 ΰDZ ̴. ݸ ϰ Ǹ鼭 ְ ̿ ̰ ȴ. ְ Ƶΰ ġ 弼 ٷ Ѵ.
4. ħü (defensive, ǰֽ)
ħü鿡 帧, PBR, ̿ Ÿ. ҾȰ ȸͺٴ ڻ ΰġ 帧 ߿õǰ ΰϰ ϰ ȴ. ǰֽĵ ϴ ̴. ܱ ߽ ߷ ٴ ġ Follow-up ȭϿ 庸 ˰ action ϸ ִ. ݸ, ȣ 强̳ ְ ̿ .
ͺ ͷ
Ÿǥ
ó: ϳ, VIPڹ
* 2003 4 2007 10, 2008 11 , ϶ 2007 11 2008 10
ó: 츮
麰 ڼ
* Value ǥ, Growth & Momentum ǥ
ó: ϳ
ڷ ϳ Quantitative Issue Report Ͽ ۼǾϴ. ߺ̾ڹ ǰ߰ ٸ ֽϴ. ʷ ġ 簡 ϰ Ϳ ϸ, ش ġ ߰Դϴ.
VIPڹ (mwmtmw@naver.com)
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