ڵм
ۼ : ۱ٿ(tosoha1@naver.com)
1. ڵ Ȳ
- 2009 6õ븦 ǸϿ 9% YoY ϶ ڵ 2010 3% ȸ ̾ 2011 10% ū , ų 3.6% .(ó : global insight)
ó :
- 忡 30% ϴ ̱ 17% . 8% ߱ 18.5% ̱ ߿.
- Ÿ þ, ε, ߵ, ƽþƱ ڵ . ü.
- 2009 ̱ 7(M/S 7.2%), 10(M/S 4.1%), ߱ 2(10.7%)
- M/S 1~3 .
- ̱ : 1 GM(19.8%), Ÿ(16.8%), (15.9%)
- : 1 VW(21.3%), PSA(12.8%), (10.2%)
- ߱ : 1 VW(17.3%), /(10.7%), GM(9.2%)
- ̱ / 2009 Ÿ ϼ ü ÷.
- 2010 ̱ Ⱑ ȹ ȸ ʴ , 2009 Ȳ .
- ϴ 2010 / ߿ ߱, Ÿ · M/S Ȯ밡 Ǵ ̱.
2. ֿ ڵ – , ߱, ̱
- ü ñ 2009 5 ǽõ ü μƼ .
- 2009 ѱ .
߱
- 2003 ۵ ߱ Ͷ̼(motorization) 2015 .
- ֱ ǥ 2010 ߱ 1 ¿ ǸŴ 104 ⵿ 116.8%, 12.6% Ͽ å .
̱
- ̱ ڵ ü 50% ̸, ·δ Ը ڿ δ. ̿ GM ũ̽ 2015 뷮 30% ؿ ϴ ִ
- 2010 1 M/S 7.5% ȸ. (Ÿ ȿ)
- 2009 ڵü μƼ꿡 2010 ȭ ҽ
Ȳ .
- Ȳ 2009 ū / ľ.
- ᱹ ¿ ְ ºٴ rerating / ְ .
- Ÿ ְ 帧 ľ ʿ䰡 .
3. Ÿ ŷ ̷
- ǹ ִ ξ Ҿ, ߿ ֿ忡 ȭ ְ ϰ Valuation ܰ ø ¼ ٴ .
- ڵ ܱ ϰ ν Valuation ְ
- ü Ǵ ñ(1,2 ϼũ) M/S Ű Valutaion ߴٴ ֱ / ̱ M/S ְ Rerating .
- ̱ M/S 2008 3% -> 2009 4.2%
- ̱ M/S 2008 2.1% -> 2009 2.9%
4. ؿ ȭ.
- 2010 ؿܰ ߿. ؿܰ ȭ .
- ؿܰ й 3404
- ߱ 3112, ε 859, Ű 500, ̱ 364, ü -1431. 3404
- ؿܰ й 1104
- ߱ 692, ιŰ 412
5. Ÿ .
- 2000 ڵ Explorer 21 . Ÿ̾
- ǰ Ford ڵ ǰ, ư GM Chrysler ȮǸ Big3 ü
- Һڵ ϼ ǰ 䱸 Ÿ ǥǴ ϺĿ ˹.
- Ÿ 1999 8.5% Ұϴ M/S 2007 16% ø GM ̾ ̱ 2 .
- ֱ Ÿ ݷ ݻ . Ը ش M/S 5% Ͽ.
- 2010 1 ̱ ü Ÿ Ÿ ü ݻ ̰ .
- ̱忡 Ÿ ð ݱ ִ .
6. оִ .
- Ÿ ȭ 08 SUV Product mix ȭ.
- PI(Platform Integration) ϶ ȸ 1 ̾ٸ, 10 K7, SUV ΰġ ASP
- Ư K7 ߰ Ʈ Ŭ ȴ
- 10 ư忡 Ÿ , ι 忡 ix شȭ ų ȹ̾ ȸ ¹ٸ ȿ .
7. : ǰ Overweight, Top Pick , ȭ
- ۳ ְ · 190%, 187%, 144% ũ Ͽ.
- ϼ ü ϴ .
- valuation per10, per7, per8~9
- ũ Ͽ 2009 2010 ū ƴٴ 鿡 ְ rerating ԵǾ ̸, ̴ ֱ Ÿ · m/s factor ɼ .
- 2004⸻ ϸ ܱ ǴܵǸ, Ÿ ° ȭ ۷ι ڵ , ɼ .
- ְ 鿡 ̹ ŷ .(2005⸻ ϸ Ը 鿡 ռ ִ Ȳ Ͽ ִ ְ ڵ鿡 ŷ .)
- ų翡 ۷ι Ǹŷ 11.6%ε , 26.5% ξ . -> 쿡 ̺긦 Ŵ .
- / ȴٸ ǰȸ .
- ٽ ߱, ε, Ű ȸ簡 ū ø ִ ȭ ǰ ߿ ŷ. ȭ̳ 忡 ˷ ִٴ ŷ.
- Top Pick : , ȭ.
8. : 豸
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