̺ 巹
ڶ ڰ Ǿ ϴ ?
~ ϴ.
å ִ. Ҵ ־.
ǥ "巹 ̴...." ߴµ ƴ϶ 븶հҴ...^0^*...
ó ǥ PER,PBR,PCR,PDR ȿ ϰ ִ.
Ư ȿ ǥ 20% ֽ ͷ Źϴٸ ڷῡ ٰϿ ְ ִ.
ġڶ PER,PBR ϴ 찡 ̴. Ϲ ̵ ڸ ϰ . ̵ ̴.(װ ϴ.)
° PER,PBR,PCR,PDR ϴٰ ϴµ ٸ ƴ϶ ϸ鼭 ο ڴ. .
۳ Ǽ å PER ؼ ̷ ϰ ִ.
P/E P/E 庸 ũٴ Ʋ̴ٶ ̴.
P/E ͷ Ѵ. ݵ Ѵ. P/E ͷ ״. P/E ͷ ߴ.
̾߱ ϰ ִ.
ü 츮 Ͼ ϴ ΰ?
ʹ ٵ ٵ ̷ ̰ ϱ? ̴.
Ǽźٴ ̺ 巹 ġʰ ϴϱ ׳ ̺ 巹 Ͼ ?
´. dz ܱ̾߱⸸ ϰ ...
Ҵ. ǼŰ å Ѵ Ҵ.
̻ϴ. Ǽ ζ ִ ͷ û ȥ ϴµ ϰ ڴ...^0^*...
̻ϰ 縦 ߳?
и Ǽ PER ų11 ȮϰԴ 12 PER ߰ ͷ ڽǼͷ ߴ.
ٸ 2007 11Ͽ PER 11.4迴 2007 ڽǼͷ 32.2% ߴ.
ǼŴ PER װ üδ ̷ͷ ִ ٰ 簡 Ʋ ʾҴٸ
츮 ̷ͷ ִ ϴ.
Ǽ 嵵 ٰŰ ͵ ƴϴ.
ö
PER 1ֽļͷ 谡 踦 ̰ ִ. PER 1ֽļͷ ٴ ̴. ŷ ΰ ؼ ǹ ۿ ϴ.
ֳϸ -0.38 踦 ̴. ڼ ϸ -0.38 *-0.38 = 0.1411 R- ߴ. ġ PER ְ 14.11% ۿ ְ ʴٴ ǹѴ.
Ͽư 谡 ִ°ŷ ʹ PER ͽϸ ū ĥ .
̺ 巹հ Ǽ ߿ ϶ 20% PER ͷ Ѵٰ ϴ
̺ 巹 ְ ʹ.
PER 18.01. 11 PER 8.99 .
ڽǼͷ ΰ?
ʹ Ҵ Ѵ...^0^*...
⺻ м ȿ Ұ ũ Ǿ ̸ νѴٴ . ֽ 忡 ߱ . Z ڿ ٽѹ ϰ ǰ
Ģ3 踦 . װ ϵ ϵ, ȭϴٰ . ̷ Ϻδ ̰, Ϻδ 쿬̶ ̴. ̷ 踦 Ѵٶ ٰ ȸͿ Ģ 27_ ͷ ȸʹ ⺻ ٶ ڰ ش.( ȸͷ ̴...^0^*...)
̰ ƴϴ
ڿ ϶ 忡 Ⱑ ؿ ϱ ȸ ٶ ֽ 2 ͷ ٰ Ѵ.
鼭 1980 ε ־ ְ϶ ߴ ñ ֿ ߴ ʸ 鼭 ϳֿ ϰ ִ ڰ Ѵ.
ٰ ֽ Ʈ 25% Ѱ , ൵ ü Ʈ 2% ʵ ߴٸ鼭 츮 ε ս 濵 Ǽ ѵ ս ִ ߴ. л ߴ. ׳ پ ֽ Ʈ 50% ϰ ְ ű ϳְ ϳ ̴. л꿡 ٽ ѹ ϰ Ǿ.
1990 ԱⰡ ƴϾڴ°? ڽŰ ̴ ״ żϴ ٴ ƴ϶ ̴. ̾ ɰϰ ٸ .
ڴ밡 ̷ ߴٴ ̴. 10ŷ 25% ̴. ̷ 3ָ ֽ ǰڱ ϴ ƴٴ ̴. 鼭 ̹ ٸ ƴѰ ϴ Ȥ . Ȳ ؿ ҾȰ Ȥ Ĺ ̴. ִ.
Ѵ. 80 ε ֽ dz...
и ھ̴پ Ǿ dz ִ µ迴.
° ̺ 巹 ̾߱ ϱ л꿡 ʿ伺 ٽ ־ Ʈ ¥ư ־µ...װ ٽ .
Ʈ̷ ٴ...^0^*...
Dz ǹ ִ īο ȥ ư.
̳Ĵ ǹ
ؾ ƴ϶ ڱȸ İ .
Ǽ å κ оôµ
Ǽ .
ΰ Ըϱ ϴ.
( ȸ簡 å ϴ ̱.)
Ⱓ ܱ ϸ ΰ 赵 ϴ.
ϸ Ҽ 赵 ΰ ϴ.
ǼŰ PER ͷ 踦 10 ƴ 1 ͷ ȭѰ
Ⱓ ª ν ( ǵ) ΰ踦 Ű ϴ.
иմϴ.
PER ڼ и 谡 ִٰ մϴ.
̽ʴϴ...^0^*...
[I]t turns out high P/E markets aren't predictive of poor returns--not even remotely.
3 ֽĽ ̱١ Ǽ The Only Three Questions That Count 8ʿ Դϴ. ǼŰ å (Ȥ ) ְͺ(P/E Ȥ PER) ͷ α ٸ Խù Ϻ ߷ýϴ( Ĺ ). 캸, ǼŴ ̳ PER Īϴ ƴ϶ ü PER ϰ ֽϴ. PER Ҵ ߴٰ ؼ ͷ ͵ ƴϰ PER Ҵ ߴٰ ؼ ͷ ͵ ƴ϶ ̾߱Դϴ. ݸ, PER ֽĿ ϴ ͷ ϴٴ 巹 ü PER PER ϶ ϴ ƴ϶ ؼ˴ϴ. ڼ α ũ ֽñ ٶϴ.
1. http://hsalbert.blogspot.com/2009/01/contrarian-investment-strategies-next.html
2. http://hsalbert.blogspot.com/2009/07/kenneth-fisher-per-pe-only-three.html
URL : http://hsalbert.blogspot.com