ġڰ ϱ, ٰ ָϱ йԴϴ.
ġڰ ġ ̸ ո Ըس ǥ Ѵٸ غ̴ ǵ з ãƳϴ. ġڿ ƶ ġմϴ.
ݸ п ִ мϸ ̷ δ١ ġ ٴ м 帧 մϴ.
ҽϰ ִ ó Դϴ. װ п ٰ ʴ и Դϴ. , ״ л(covariation), ںڻ갡ݸ(CAPMCapital Asset Pricing Model), Ÿ() ƹ ̶͡ ϰ ִµ, ̰ ٷ п ϰ ٷ Դϴ. ǻ ߿ Ʈ(Quant, м) ° Ǵ й̱ մϴ.
̷ Ѱ踦 ٴ ̸ 帮 ۿ Ұϰ ι ٿ ˷ ӽ ʽ(James P. Oshaughnessy)Դϴ.
ӽ ʽô 1951 2003 52 ̱ ֽ 忡 ְ ̴(data mining) мմϴ. (̷ м ϰ ϴ ̱ ȭ ηϴ)
״ ֽ ڵ ñ ϴ ãưϴ.
̷ Դϴ.
() PER(Price Earnings-Ratio) ֽ 忡 °? ġֿ °? PSR(ְ, Price Sales Ratio), PBR(ְڻ, Price Book-value Ratio), PER پ ǥ ū ִ°?
״ <What works on Wall street> å ҽϴ.
å о ֽ ڵ ñ Ǯϴ.
켱, PER ̶ ֽϴ. Ư PER ֿ ´ ̶ ֽϴ.
1951 12 31Ͽ 1 PER 50 2003 1,150 2,432 Ҿ 14.51% ͷ ŵ ̶ ֽϴ. ̴ Ⱓ ֿ ͷ 11.71% 2.8% Ʈ ռ ġԴϴ( 2.8% Ʈ ͷ ̰ ū ʿ䰡 Դϴ.)
PSR PER, PBR ǥ ū ͷ ǥ ֳ.
״ 1951 12 PSR, PBR, PER ߴٰ ϰ 52 2003 ͷ غô PSR 15.95% ͷ 1 ߴٰ ֳ. ״ PSR ġ ǥ ա(The king of the value factors)̶ Īȣ ̰ ֽϴ 2 15.94% ͷ PBR ͵ ̷ӽϴ. PBR ȿ뼺 ǥ 巯±. 3 PER ͷ 13.77% ߳.
ġֳ ֳ ϴ ؼ ʽô ġֿ ָ ̾ ش١ ֽϴ.
̹ۿ ְ ū ϴ ū Ǽ ϴ ͡, ֽĽ忡 α⸦ Ÿ ִ PER ϴ ū Ǽ ϴ ̶͡ ̷ο ֳ.
ʽô ̷ ϰ Ѱ ϴ. å ̲ ̱ մϴ.
ֽڿ ŵ ִ ̷ ִµ ̱ ƮƮ ټ ݵŴ S&P · ġ ϴ ŵδĴ Դϴ.
ʽ 翡 1991~2003 Ÿ ͺ̽ ϵ ̱ ݵ S&P500 · Ѵ ͷ ŵ 20% Ұߴٰ մϴ. ٽ ̱ ڵ ݵ带 ƹ ̳ ðٸ ټ ͷ ġ ϴ ٴ Դϴ.
ʽô ٰ ݵ ӻ 鿩 Ǹ Դϴ.
1994~2004 10 𰡵 ε ݵ – S&P500 ݵԴϴ - ͷ ɰ ߾ ݵ 362 غô 152 𰡵 ε ݵ ͷ 2% ʰߴٰ ֽϴ.
ݵŴ İ ⺻ Ҿ ߰ ִ еε ̱ ϴ ɱ.
ʽô ݵ Ŵ Ѱ ϰǰ ϱ ̶ ֽϴ. ״ ȸ ߰ϴ ٷ Ǵ ƴϸ, ؼ Ѱ , ְ, 뿹ó ϴ (consistently, patiently, slavishly) Ŵ Ѵ١ ϰ ֽϴ.
״ ڽ ä ٸ ͷ ڰ ִ ٱ а ŵ ִ١ մϴ. , Ȳ ϰ ϴ ȿ ˰ ̾߸ и ҷ ̴ ӡ̶ մϴ.
̷ м ʽð â ٿ ̷Դϴ. ٿ ̷ 츮Ե ģ.
ٿ Ե 30 ͷ 10 Ʈ ϰ ظ ͷ 10 üذٸ (S&P500) ɰϴ ŵ ִٴ ̷Դϴ.
ʽô ä ͷ ϰ ֽϴ.
1928 1 ٿ ͷ 10 ߴٸ 2003 5,766 2,527 Ҿ ̶ мϰ ֽϴ. ݰ Ŀ̼ ͷԴϴ. ͷ 12.24%Դϴ.
Ⱓ S&P500 ߴٸ ܿ 1,036 6,726 ģ Ͱ Դϴ. ͷ 9.7%.
ʽð ¥ ϰ ; ٿ ̷ ȿ뼺̶ ٴ ϰ ¸Ѵ١(Consistency wins) ̾ å Ȯ ־ϴ. (<What works on Wall street> ƽ)
ڽŸ ö Ǵ ڰ ־
ϰ ִ ϴ.
оϴ.
"ϰ ¸Ѵ١(Consistency wins)......
оϴ.
"ܿ 12% ͷ .."
츮 ̷ ƹ ϴ. 12% ִٸ
' ɼ ϴ.' Ǿ
12% ø ?
ʽϴ.
(1) 1: 1.12,10: 11.20
(10) 1: 3.10,10: 31.05
(20) 1: 9.64,10: 96.45
(30) 1:29.95,10:299,59
(40) 1:93,05,10:930,50
츮 Ե õ ִ ϱ ؼ ֽ ϴ̴...^^