ȳϼ Դϴ.
Macro 弼 Դϴ. ϴ мٴ ̷ 弼 Top Down Process ڸ ؾ մϴ.
Money talk ٴ " There is something that money cannot buy" ö ̷ (ڻ й ȿ) ٶ ±.Ϲ Ⱑ Ǹ ڻ갡ġ ġ Ʒ ڻ(ֽ & ε ) Cherry picking ڱ ڶ ȸ ƴұ ˴ϴ.
̱ ٿ 12000 , 弼 ǰ ֽϴ. ֱ ϶ ٴ ̸¡ ϶ Ŀ ְ Ʒ ŵ ƽð ̸¡ 赵 ȣ ֽϴ. ڵ ū ̱ ä ްϰ ؼ ̱ä ÷ ξ ġ ̳ʽӿ ұϰ ä ڻ Ǹ ϰ ִٴ Դϴ.
(: ڸä/VIX %, bp)
---------------------------------------------
ڸä5.. ۿ. CDS.. VIX... EMBI+
---------------------------------------------
2008
---------------------------------------------
03/06 2.47... 196..... 87... 27.55... 283
03/05 2.58... 193..... 85... 24.60... 277
03/04 2.54... 190..... 86... 25.52... 284
03/03 2.51... 195..... 86... 26.28... 294
02/29 2.47... 194..... 85... 26.54... 291
02/28 2.67... 191..... 83... 23.53... 278
02/27 2.89... 187..... 82... 22.69... 264
02/26 2.88... 191..... 82... 21.90... 262
02/25 2.96... 184..... 86... 23.03... 261
02/22 2.83... 180..... 85... 24.06... 272
02/21 2.80... 178..... 84... 25.12... 277
02/20 2.98... 178..... 84... 24.40... 269
02/19 2.94... 176..... 82... 25.59... 275
02/18 ... 178..... 83... ...
02/15 2.76... 176..... 81... 25.02... 278
02/14 2.77... 175..... 83... 25.54... 272
02/13 2.73... 176..... 85... 24.88... 277
02/12 2,69... 176..... 86... 26.33... 280
02/11 2.65... 176..... 83... 27.60... 286
02/08 2.69... 173..... 75... 28.01... 285
02/07 2.83... 171..... 78... 27.66... 271
02/04 2.78... 171..... 78... 25.99... 270
02/01 2.74... 172..... 76... 24.02... 276
---------------------------------------------
01/31 2.76... 173..... 76... 26.20... 273
---------------------------------------------
3. CDS: ѱ ũƮ 5 ̾---> ε
4. VIX: īɼǰŷ(CBOE) (Volatility
Index) S&P500 ɼ 纯(IV) Ÿ VIX Ŭ 忡 ҾȰ Ŀ
5. EMBI+: ä+(Emerging Market Bond Index+)
JP ǥϴ 屹 ݸ ġ 屹 äڿ 赵 Ÿ
츮 ܱ ŵ ְ ε ũ ʴٰ ˴ϴ. 켱 翡 ֵ ̸鼭 ȭ ڻ ƴ ۷ι 忡 þ̱ ܱ ٽ 뷮 ŵ ǿ ϰ 뷮 ż ȯϱ ؼ 츮 ȯ ٽ ٸ鼭 ȣϰ ϴ(2007 ݱ) ¶ ܱ ڰ ô ݰ ڿ ũ Ϲ ִٰ մϴ.
ETF ѱ и 忡 䰡 ְ, ÷ ȯ ݸ ÷ ̷ Ŀ ( ̱ ݸ ... 1.5% -2% ܿ ̻ ϰ մϴ.) ٽ ڻ ᱹ ϸϰ Ȥ ްϰ ٽ ġ ö Դϴ. ֳϸ 迡 ݸϿ ŭ þٴ ǹ̰ ſ ⸦ Ŀϰ ŭ ٸ ǰ ̱ Դϴ. ٸ ̷ 㺸ִ Cherry piciking ̶ մϴ.
Global Weekly Դϴ.
̷ Ⱓ ڻ (ֽ,ä,ǰ, ) 谡 ̱ Back trecking ֽϴ. ⼭ 谡 1̸ 100% ̰ 0 ó ̶ ̴ 谡 ٴ ̸ -1 ڻ ݴ δٴ ̷ Ⱑ ֽ ݴ ̴ -1 ڻ ̸ ؼ ϴ ִٴ Դϴ.
ڻ Ⱑ ֽ ݵǴ ȿ ؼ ñ ٶϴ.
ؿ ݵ带 Ȥ ó Ǵ ߿ Ʈ ȴµ...
̹ Global Weekly ġ ϰ ϰ ־, ÷ Ʈ Ŀٶ ŷ ġ ְ ֽϴ. Ʈ ٳԴµ Ⱓ ִٸ ŷִ Ʈ ϴ.
ǽñ ٶϴ.
P.S ״ Ű ˼ؼ.... ظ Ƿϸ, ̱ ݸ ϸ ̻ ݸ ̹ 75 BP ϰ 50 BP ܰ ִ ϶ ġ ̶ ֽϴ. ġ ϶ 䰡 ã, ÷ DZ ϸ ݸ Ͽ ڱ ϱ ؼ ݸ Ͽ 뿡 ٽ ǥ ڻ մϴ. ǥ ̵ ϳ...
츮 ֽ ȭ ȭ īƮ ȭ̱ ȭ ȭ ༼ ֵ Ÿ ߿ 弼 ϸ մϴ.
ϼ~
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