ȳϼ Դϴ.
2004 8 Ʈ KOSPI 200 ڸ ETF BRIC's ڴ ܰ صȴ Ʈ 츮 ETF ȿ ߱ 2007 ʹ κ ڸ Ͻ ߱ 2007 ģ ϴ. ְ 30% ϴ ұ Ƽ ݵ ̶ ϶ ϴ ְ, 忡 ʾ ϴ ٶ Դ ڸ , ִٸ öϰ ؼ մϴ. 100 % 2007 ʿ 忡 Ŀ ߱ 6-70% ߵ ǰ ϳ ̶ ϼŵ մϴٸ ؿ ߱ ʵη ΰ ŷǴ Emerging market Ĵ ʾ մϴ.
ٰ 1 :
߱ ֱ Ⱓ ڸ GDP growth rate Ÿ½ϴ. ְ ݿ̱ ֱ Ⱓ ڸ ߱ ϴ. ϰ GDP growth rate 10% ̰ ݸ 4% 뿡 ӹ ־ θ 4% ؼ 10% ߴٰ ߱ ̱ ΰ ? ̱ 4% ݸ ְ 4-5%̰ ߱ 10% Կ ְ öϰ ϸ 10% 4 % ݸ ӵ ϴ. ð ̶ ٴ ߱ ο ģ ȭ â( 4% ݸ) ϵ ӱ ؿ ӹ ִ 뵿 ӱ ڸ Ÿ װ Ģ Ǵ ȭ â ü¿ ʴ ݸ , Ǵ ӱ ص ̶ ˴ϴ. Ⱓ ݸ ̳ʽ Ҿ ڰ ֽ ۿ ֽ over shooting ۿ ϴ.
ٰ 2 : ģ ְ
ֽ մϴ. ߱ ɼ ֱ ̸ ڸ . ߱ ֽ ϳ ̶ֽ ⺻ ⺻̶ ִµ ܱ ȭ ȭ ϱ Դϴ. ǥ Zڰ ̰ Zڰ 츮 5 %ε 10% 5Ⱓ ϰ ְ 10% ̻ ߴ Zڴ ¼ ϴ. Z ڰ 츮 5 % Ѱ Ŀ ִٸ 츮 Z ϳ ۿ ʰ ̰ ̰ Ȯϸ ̶߱ ֽ ϳ Ŀ ֽ ߱ ֽ ϳۿ ʴ Ͱ մϴ. Ʒ ǥ ÷ ڷῡ Excel ۾ Դϴ.
PER | ְ | ݸ | ÷ | GDP | |
ѱ | 11 | 9.09% | 5.20% | 3% | 5.50% |
߱ | 54.1 | 1.85% | 4.00% | 6.80% | 10% |
Ϻ | 14.3 | 6.99% | 0.50% | 0% | 1.00% |
̱ | 16.8 | 5.95% | 3.00% | 2% | 2.80% |
2007 ̹ PER 40 Ѿ ,߱ ְ PER 70 ߴٰ PER 54 PER ְ 1.85% Դϴ. ֽ 忡 ϸ 1.85% ְ ȸDZ Ⱓ̶ ϸ 1 ϸ 54 Ŀ 2谡 Ǵ ֽ ߱ ֽ ִ ǹԴϴ. ֽ PER ϳθ ݸ ؿ ڸ ¿ ߱ ݸ ʳ ; ֽ 忡 پ ̿ Դϴ. ߱ ο Ǵ ƴϰ ε ڸ Ϲ ֽ ۿ 浵 ڵ ص ߱ ֽ ְ ΰ ϴ. Ⱓ ݸ ̳ʽ (ݸ 4 %- ÷ 6.5%=-2.5%) ؿ ֽ 忡 翬 ۿ , ̷ ġ ݿ̱ ٴ Ⱓ ̳ʽ ݸ Ҿ ڵ 귯 ֽ ۿ ְ ǰ ִ ̴.
3 . ÷ й پ
Ű 15 % 7 % 10 % Űź 10 % ε ߱ 4 % Դϴ. ݸ ٴ ŭ ô뿡 ǰ װ ѳ ü° ٰ ֽϴ. ڸ ް ȭ ( M2 ǥ) 17 % ްϰ ȭ ÷Ȱ ̷ ۿ ÷ й( ھ 7 % ö) θ Ǿ ֽϴ. ÷ ø ƽð ̷ ÷ з ϱ ߱ δ ȭ ְ ̷ ߱ ణ ݸ Repo ݸ 3.8%뿡 11 2 Ͽ ߱ ڱ Libor+60bp ҰϿ ֱٿ Libor+300bp Ͽϴ.߱ Ը ̰ ֽϴ.. ü¿ ݸ ذ ȭ ӵ 깰 ÷ ȭ ̱ Ը 忡 Repo ݸ ̾ ֽϴ.
4. ̱ ħü & ȿ ȯ
2002 ϰ ǥϸ ߱ Һ ̱ ̿. ľ ϴ ε Һ ȯ ̱ ° ȭ Ǿ ħü ̾ Ŀٶ Һ پ ߱ ִ ⱹ ̱ ħü ƴ ߱ ٴ . ֱ ߱ Բ Կ ӱ ̸, ֱ ÷ ȿ ȯ (Real Effective Exchange rate) 鿡, ֺ ༼ ۿ ִ ⱹ ̱ ħü ̿ܿ ̱ ߱ ÷ ֺ ȿ ȯ ǹ̸ Ǹ ִ ܰ ö (ӱ, , ȭ) ֿ ̾ (̱ ֿ ) ȣ ҳ ε ̶߱ ¿ .
ϸ Ҿϰ ִ ſ ִ ߱ 忡 ̷ ִٸ, ״ٰ ٽ ϴ ٷԴϴ. Ʋ ְ Finance ν, Ҵ Ͽ 忡 پ ǵ ִµ ̷ ó 100% ٷ ٸ ó 100% ִ ȸ ̷ ð մϴ.
÷ ڷ о ð , κ ߱ Ʈ ʰ ֱٿ ߱ е о մϴ. о ôٰ ô ø ̳ ȭֽñ. ش ̸ å ο ֽϴ.
Financial Actuary 帲
P.S
ְ : PER
ݸ : ݸ - ÷̼
ȿ ȯ : ݿ ȿȯμ 뱹 빰 ̿Ͽ
մϴ.