- - File : ؿ_by_JIREH.pdf
ֽļ() |
10,000,000 |
|
ܱμ(%) |
39.05 |
52ְ() |
38,500 |
鰡() |
5,000 |
|
EPS() |
9,125 |
52() |
17,900 |
ðѾ() |
3,020 |
|
PER() |
3.31 |
ְ() |
30,200 |
ִ |
31.62% |
|
PBR() |
0.78 |
ּҸǥ() |
55,000 |
Executive
Summary
- ػ (BDI) -CEO
ο(, ý, 繫) ȭ -ϴ ؿ غϴ ⼱ ü ɰϴ
ͼ |
Prologue
ȭ ô. ̰
ſ ذ . ߴ, ߴ
Ͽ Ͽ, ŷ Ͽ.
ο ʿ ȭ ȿ Ͽ ϴ ſ Ͽ û Ͽ,
Ҽ þ ӵ ִ. Դٰ
WTO, FTA ܾ ԵǴ ŭ ǹ ִ Ž ū
ĵ ٰ ִ. Ŵ ĵ Ÿ ū ؼ ư , ̸Ͽ ؿ. Ѷ ѹα ر ̴
(ͯ) ̸ͱ ȸ ؿ ȸ簡 ٷ ؿ. Korea Line̶ ̸ Ǿ 1981 ؿ
Ͽ. ο ؽô() ! ø ظ ϴ ؿ ̷ 븦
ɾ.
1. Ư
ؿ ϴ ؿ ķ, ,
, ǰ Ģ ϴ ñ ʿ ҿ ϴ ̴. Ȯϴµ Ը ڱ ϵǴ ǥ ں ̸, 庮 ֹ ʰ 踦 Ȱ ̷ ̴. Ư 츮 ؿ ΰ忡 ʼ ǰ
90% ̻ ϴ ȵǴ ʼ Ⱓ̴.
ߴ ߴ Ͽ Ͽ, ֱٿ
FTA ü Ͽ Ȱ ̷ ִ. , ߱ Ȯ뿡 Ͽ 縦 Ƶ帮 ,
ΰǺ ̿ ǰ Ǹ鼭 ػ 䰡 þ ̴. Ʒ
ǥ ֵ, ǰ ȭ ξ ٴ
ִ. ̰ ū ؿ翡 ̳ʼ Ǵ ũ ؿ簡 ũ
, ε ٴ Ͻش.
Source: UNCTAD, REVIEW
OF MARITIME TRANSPORT
ػ зδ ȭ ȭ .
ȭ Ǿ ⼱̶ θ, ȭ Ǿ ⼱̶ θ. Ư, ȭ ؿü
ϴ ū ϱ ؿü 캸µ ־ ſ ߿ ̴. ⼱ ؼ ̷ ,
̹Ƿ ⼱ ִ ̶ ִ.
̳ʸ ϴ ̳ʼ, ź,
ȭ 迡 Ӱ ִ ũ, LNG,
Ư . LNG κ ⼱ ϰ, ̳ʼ
Ϻ ũ ⼱ Ѵ.
2. ؿ Ư
ؿ ؿü ߿ ũ LNG
ִ ü̴. POSCO, ѱ, ѱ
(5~25) ü Ͽ ⼱
ū ̴. , Ⱓ Ͽ
ٸ ü鿡 Ͽ Ǿ ִٰ ִ. ؿ ǥ
LNG ȹ ֱ ,
Ÿ ؿü鿡 Ͽ ̰ ؿ ϰ ̴. ȭ ũ
۷ κ ϴ ؿ ͼ 캸 ؼ ȭ BDI(Baltic Dry
Index) 캸ƾ Ѵ.
3. ȭ BDI
2б ȭ Ȳ Ÿ
BDI տ 2,552Ʈ, 1б 2,431Ʈ 5% Ͽ. Ʒ ǥ ֵ, 2005 ް
2004 ְġ ݼعۿ ʴ ٴ ִ.
Source: KMI ѱؾ갳߿
Ʒ ǥ ֵ,
1999~2003 ϸ ص ̶ ִ. 2004,
2005 ִ ȣȲ̾ , ̴
, ǻ ƴ ִ.
Source: KMI ѱؾ갳߿
ѱؾ갳߿ Ͽ BDI dz
ε Ϲݱ ̷ ̾ ڷ 3б BDI ⸦ ϴ ̶ ϰ ִ.
ݳ 3б BDI 2,937Ʈ 2б
16.4%Ͽ ȭ ռ ϰ ִ. ȭ
ͼ ȭ ؿ POSCO, ѱ, ѱ Ŀ ۰ ΰ ֱ ϴٰ ִ. BDI Ͽ ũ ؿ 1/4,
2/4 б Ͽ ̹ Ǿ ִ. BDI 30~40% ϶Ͽ ̴. ֱ BDI ݵϸ鼭 Ϲݱ ȣ
δ. BDI 6 50% Ͽ
Source: KoreaPDS
4. Ư (LNG, )
Source: ؿ 68
ؿ ѱ LNG ۰ üϿ 2ô LNG ̸, 4ô LNG ۰ ϰ ִ. ,
5. ο CEO,
رб (ͯ) ̸ͱ
ȸ ̾ Ƶ ڸ ̾. (ͯ) ̸ͱ ȸ رб ر ڰ ٴٿ ؼ . , װ ȸ ۰ ݱ ȸ縦 ѿ ؿ
Ư ڰ Ը ڱ 繫 CEO ʿߴ. Դٰ ͳ ߴ ػ ͳ ̷ ý ÷ ýǵ ʿߴ. , ̿ CEO
̴. 濵а,
濵п 繫 縦 Ͽ 繫 鿡 ִ. ȸ ڻ
κ ä ä ä ʿϴ.
濵 Ǹ鼭 ȸ翡 ̷ Ͽ. 2005 4 Ȯ ־, 7 ý
ERPý ̵, 12 ȸ
ϷϿ ȸ ڱ帧 Ȯ ľ ְ Ǿ. ʼ
Ͽ ϰ ö ڱ Ͽ ּȭ ϸ ͼ شȭ Ű ̴. , ȭ ߾
ȹϰ ִ. Բ Ը ȭ ̷鼭 ְ ̾
ä Ҿ ؼϴµ ٽ Ǵ CEO 澾 ̸
ū ڱٰ̱ ϴ.
6. ϰ !
ֿ ؿü(ؿ,
, ؿ) ߿ ؿ
Ը鿡 , ϰ Ȯ ְ
ִ. Ը ؿ װͰ عۿ
, Ÿ ŵϴ Ϳ Ͽ Ը ϰ ִ
ָҸϴ.
κ ũι ϰ , ؿ 15%, 35% ũι ϰ ִ. ؿ ɷ κ ũι , ؿ
̶ְ ִ. ɷ ġ 90%̻ ϰ , ϴ
ִ. ̴, ؿ پ ɷ
Ͽ Ȱ ȿ ϰ ִ.
Source: ؿ, ؿ, 2001~2005
Source: ؿ, ؿ, 2001~2005
ؿ Ư ڻ()
ũ , /ڻ /ڻ 캸 ߿ϴٰ , ġ
ڻ ȰϿ âϰ ִ.
Source: ؿ, ؿ, 2001~2005
Source: ؿ, ؿ, 2001~2005
ֵ, ڻ Ը鿡 ؿ
ϰ , Ʒ ԵǸ, ڻ
Ը 鿡 ġ ϰ ִ. , ؿ Ȳ 2001~2003 Ⱓ /ڻ ġ ٸ ؿ鿡 ؼ ϰ ̰ ִ. ̸ Ͽ ؿ ͱ , , Ǹ ȿ 濵 ϰ ִ.
̴, Ÿü Ͽ ⼱ ִ.
ڻ Ը ڻ Ȱ ̶
, Ƿ /ڻ ̷ /ڻ
ȴ ϴ ͼ ް ȴ.
7. 繫ǥ м
Source: ؿ 2001~2005
ؿ Ư ڻ()
ũ, ڻ þ ִ. ؿ
Ư ڻ ʹ ũٰ Ͽ ڱ帧 Ǿ ִٰ . ߰
ŷ Ȱ ̷ ִ. Ȳȭ ϰ ߰ 尡ݵ
ū ǰ ߰ ŷ Ű ڱ ɼ ̰ ־ 繫 뼺
ִ ȴ. , ؿ ȣȲ ߰
ŰϿ ó ִٴ ȸ ϰ ִ. , ū ؿ οҷ ⺸ٴ 庮 Ÿϴ.
Source: EBN, BRS
2006 8 , 5 ȭ ߰ 3 Ͽ 2 Ͽ ִ. ΰθ ϵǾ ִ 繫ǥ
ڻ꿡 ġ ϰ ִ. ؿ ϰ ִ ȭ 2005 Capesize 1ô, 2006
Capesize 2ô, 1996
Panamax 1ô, 2004
HandayMax 1ô ϵ 2,600 ̸. ȭ , 12 Capesize 12ô, HandyMax 2ô, LNG
6ô ϰ , Ը ؿ뷮
172,000dwt ū ڼ 8ô ڷῡ õ ذ
ִ. ȭ LNG ߰
1 ġ Ѵٰ ִ. , 繫ǥ ڻ Ǿ 3,000
ڻ Ǿ ںѰ 7,000 ̸ٰ , ðѾ Ǿ ִ.
Source: ؿ
2001~2005
2001 ķ ڻ߿ ںѰ谡 ϴ ϰ, ä Ը
ϰ ־ 繫 ũ Ǿ. 2001 98%
̸ ä 2005 70% Ͽ
繫 ũ Ǿ.
Source: ؿ
2001~2005
ں Ͽ 2005 ں 42. ؿ 繫 ں
, ؿ κ ä ڰ ֹ ϴ ޱ 8,000 ̻ κ ϸ ڸ ʱ 繫 ȿ âϴ ֿ
̶ ִ.
Source: ؿ
2001~2005
2004 Ȳ ִȣ װ ũ Ǿ, 2005
ū ϶ Ȳȭ ұϰ 1 1,093
909 Ͽ.
Source: ؿ
2001~2005
ų 1,000 ̻ 帧 âϰ (2003 957 ),
2001~2003 ä Ը 鼭 ä ߾, 繫
2004 Ը ڸ 簳ν ԵǴ
2007~2008 ߰ 帧 ȴ. 濵
Ͽ ߰ ڰ ȹǾ Ƿ (-)帧, (-)繫帧, (+)帧 ӵ ȴ.
Source: ؿ, ؿ, 2001~2005
Source: ؿ, ؿ, 2001~2005
Source: ؿ, ؿ, 2001~2005
Source: ؿ, ؿ, 2001~2005
2001 3
ڷ ROE ū ǹ̸ ϹǷ
ǻ 0.00% óϿ.
(_ 2001
: ؿ -348, ؿ -783, -3196)
ROA(/ڻ, /ڻ, /ڻ) ROE(/ڻ) 캼 , ؿ 2001~2003 ü ؿ ӿ ߿Դٴ , 2004 Ȳ ȣ ӿ ø Ÿ.
Source: ؿ, ؿ, 2001~2005
Source: ؿ, ؿ, 2001~2005
Source: ؿ, ؿ, 2001~2005
ؿ Ÿü ū ̸ ̴ , پ 帧̴. κ ݰ ϰ ֱ ̴. 帧
10% ̻ ϰ , ä 帧
ũ , ȯɷ¿ ־ ְ ִ. ڻ 帧 ߶ Ÿü 10% ̻
ϰ ִ.
Source: ؿ, ؿ, 2001~2005
ݰ ٴ ŭ ִٴ ̴.
ä ٸ, ٰ ä ȸɷ
ִ ̴.
Source: ؿ, ؿ, 2001~2005
ؿ Ǿ äȯ δ ̴.
Source: ؿ, ؿ, 2001~2005
Source: ؿ, ؿ, 2001~2005
Source: ؿ, ؿ, 2001~2005
ͷ, ͷ, ͷ
Ÿü鿡 ̶ ִ. ȯ, , ū Ͽ ͷ Ÿ , ؿ縦 ϴ ؿ ȹ ɼ ϴ ⼱
ͷ ȭ ̷ ̴. ,
ȯ ȯ Ͽ ش ũ ̸ ֱ ȭ Ͽ Ͽ, ū ʴ, ̻ ͷ
ȴ.
8. 豸
: %, Source: ؿ2006 б⺸
ؿ 2004, 2006
븣 ؿ LNG ι̳ M&A
ŷ ִ. ܼ Ͱŷ M&Aõ
ƴ϶, ü 繫 Ӹ ƴ϶ ε ؿ ſ ŷ ̴. , ؿ ± ڻ , ؾ Ͽ M&A
ؿԴ. LNG, ¹, Ÿ ܱ ȸ ణ ϰ , ؾ ġ 40% ǰ Ȯϰ
Ǿ 濵 ϴ. ܱ ؿ
M&A õ Ͽ, ܼ Ͱŷ Ӹ ̴.
ؿ ȸ 缱, FAý, ؿܼ, ѱ, ڸڿ
ΰ 2006 3 61̸, ѱ ȸ簡 ֱٻ ڸ
ϰ ִ. , ؿ Ը
ȸ Ը ſ ۱ 濵 ũ ָ Ѵ.
9. å ոΰ?
캻 ؿ å ſ ո̶ ִ.
ʾҴ 2001 ʾҰ,
DZ 2002~2003 ʴٰ شȭ 2004 2,000 ̸ װ
1/20 شϴ 98 Ͽ ̴. 2005 Ͽ ӿ ұϰ ̴
ִ. ܼ ϰ ϴ Ӹ ƴ϶, Ȯ Ͽ 2004 Ͽ
ȹ ں ϰ ִ.
Source: ؿ
2001~2005
10. ȯ ó ɷ
ؿ Ư ŷ ȭ ȭ ǰ , ȭä
Ǵ ȭڻ ũ ȯ ȯͰ ȭȯ ٸ ũ Ÿ ִ. 2001 Ը ȭȯս Ծ, ȯ Ͽ
2002 ݴ Ը ȭȯ Ͽ. ȯ
ȯ, ȭȯ ſ ũ Ÿ Ϳ ū ġ , ȯ Ͽ ū ȯ
Source: ؿ
2001~2005
11. 漼 ġ
漼(Tonnage Tax System) ؿ ҵ ؿҵ
ؿҵ ϰ, ؿҵ濡 μ ǥ ƴ ϼ
ݾ üϴ Ѵ. ؿҵ濡
Ͽ μ ǥ ȴ.
Source: ѱȸ 漼ȸ
۷ ִ ؼ , 漼 ߰ų
åϴ شȭ ִ. 漼 1 1Ϳ Ǵµ Ʒ ǥ . , Ը Ŭ
1 1 پ ǥ پ Ǿ μ ȿ ִȭ
ִ.
, ڿ ڿ ݾ μ ؾ
ϹǷ ڰ μ ߵǾ ذ ֱ 5⵿
ѹ ڰ , μ δ ȴ. ѱſ(NICE) , 漼 μ ū ̴ ̳, ؿȸ
Ը ȭ Ա δϰ ־ ȯ ȭ ͼ ȭ μ δ Ը ϱ μ δ
Ը ɼ ڱݿ ϰ Ǿ.
12. ؿ 2010
ؿ 2010 2, 270ô(輱 78ô, 뼱 192ô) ȮѴٴ ߱ ؿ 2010 ǥߴ. âǿ ϰ
ȸ ϰ, åӰ 濵 ֿ ,
ϴ ʿ췮 ϴ 濵 ⺻̳ ߴ. Ư, ̷ 濵̳ ڿ ۼ ŵ쳪,
100 Բ 1δ 1, 1δ 1
Ѵٴ ߴ. ̸ 뼱 Ȯ Բ LNG/ Ȯ븦 ͱ ٺȭ, ȭ ι 輱
Ȯ ȭ ι ٰȭ Ʈ ߴ. ̿Բ
Ȯ Ͽ 2010 5 , 25 , 190, ػ 1,288 ȮѴٴ ħ̴.
ó ǥ ̶ ָҸ ϸ, Ư
ū ̰ Ǵ 뼱븦 ȮϿ ڿ Ϸ ؿ οҸ غ
ִ ּ ȴ.
13. ũ м
(1) ()
2005 ؿ ڿ 1,097
10% ̸ Ը̴. 2003~2004
ι ġ ؿ ͼ ϴ ū ҷ ִ.
Source: KoreaPDS
̿ Կ մ (BAF)
ΰϰ ִ. ȭ (TSA) 1 Ḧ 40Ʈ ̳ʸ $590 λѴٰ λ ȸ ȹ ˷ ִ. ѱؾ갳߿(KMI) м ڷῡ , 10% ϸ, 츮
ؿü 2.0% ȭֵ δ Ŀ Ÿ. Ḧ Ͽ ظ ŭ ȸ ִĿ ؿ ͷ
̴.
(2) ؿ∙∙
MAERSK P&O ̵ μ ˹ߵ ؿ∙ ι M&A ҿ뵹̴ 鼭 2006 ӵ
ǰ ִ. Ҹ Ը ̿Ͽ Ӵܰ
ߴ 鸮 , M&A ü ŷеǰ ִ.
Ʒ ǥ ֵ, üϼ
ִ. Ը ڱ ̿Ͽ ü μ∙պϰ , ű ַ Ͽ ؿ 10%
̳, ڷ 14% Ǿ
϶ ͼ ȭ Ÿ ȴ.
< ⼱纰 >
|
2000. 1 |
2006. 1 |
|
||
TEU |
|
TEU |
|
||
TOP 10 |
2,538,199 |
49.30% |
5,478,992 |
60.00% |
325% |
Carriers ranked 11-25 |
1,305,413 |
25.30% |
2,169,096 |
23.70% |
166% |
Carriers ranked 26-50 |
576,316 |
11.20% |
621,693 |
6.80% |
108% |
Carriers ranked 51-100 |
397,895 |
7.70% |
390,736 |
4.30% |
98% |
Source: BRS-ALPHALINER
14. ȯä, μǺλä
Written by JIREH Corp. (http://www.jirehcorp.net)
Special thanks to Metropolis
ΰ .
̼ !
ε ȭ~
п ؿֿ ظ ϴ.
1. ڼ . ؿ 1ü ƴ. Price Setter ƴ
2. 庮 High Fixed Cost.
3. ѱؿ ü ִ° ö װ.(Ѱ ö . ؿʿ ũ ̶ , װȭ ٸ )
4. Buyer Power- , Buyer .
5. Supplier Power- ѱ . ö Ŀ ٰ .
ũ ŷ Industry ƴѰ ϴ.
̼ ͼ -
۰, ڰúä ä ְ
ҽݴϴ. (ȸ ä 200% , ǹ ä 87%)
ִٴ ..
ؿ̶ Ŭ ....
CEO ... ..
̷ٰ Ͻϴ.
ȯ ũ , װ ϴ
Ҹ ̶ ˴ϴ.
3000ִٸ ؿ M&A غͽϴ.
ðѾ 2000 Ѻ ־µ, ϴ.
ֱٵ ְ ;;