2004 ũ ؽ(Berkshire Hathaway) ĥ Ǿϴ. Ե, Chairman's letter ̾߱ , ݵŴ, ֳθƮ, Ͻ θƮ ū , ص Ծ Ǹ öа ̷ο ̵ ִ ߽ϴ. 2004 ȸ迬 弭 Դϴ.
2004 Chairman's letter ֽϴ. о ñ⸦ õմϴ. ũ ȭ ༼ ڿ ؼ ְ Դϴ. ɼ ó ؼ ũ . ɼ ó ġ 簡 ְ, ߽ι̾ϴ.
ù 40 ũ ΰġ S&P 500 ǥ ư ֽϴ. 2004 S&P 500 10.9% ũ ΰġ 10.5% ļ -0.4% Դϴ. , S&P 500 ϰ ְ (pre-tax) ũ ΰġ (after-tax) ̶ Դϴ. , ũ 簡ġ(instrinsic value) ΰġ ξ ʰϰ ִٴ ǵ ؾ մϴ.
1965 2004 S&P 500 10.4% Ŀ Խϴ. ũ ΰġ 21.9% Ŀ Խϴ. ̴ 11.5%Դϴ. ũ , (compound interest) ۿϸ 1% ̵ û ̾ϴ. , 1965 ģ ũſ 1000 ߰, ٸ ģ S&P 500 ε ݵ忡 1000 ߴٸ, 2004 ũſ 275 ְ ǰ, S&P 500 5 2000 ˴ϴ. 1% ̵ Ŵ ̾ϴ.
ũ Ͻ ִ ؼ Բ ô.
Ͱ (GEICO; Government Employees Insurance Company)
ó "GEICO"("") ȸ翡 ڹ 뷮 ϰ ִٴ "Who's who" å ˰ ϴ. 濵п л̴ ״ ü ڰ ȸ̱ ڽ '' ڹ ̻ȸ ִ ñ߽ϴ.
1951 , ״ ư ã ϴ. , ֽϴ. ִ εȰ, ħ ǹ ִ ƹ İ ϴ. 6 ִ ٸ ȳ ݴϴ. ű⼭ ʳ CEO Ǵ 繫 λ θ ̺(Lorimer Davidson)̾ϴ. ̺ ڿ ؼ , ״ īο 絹 û ū ̸ 4ð ڿ ̾߱ ݴϴ.
ö ʸ ľϱ ڸ ˾ ٰ, ڶ ȸ ü ϰ Ȥ˴ϴ. ̺ ݱ ֽĺٵ ڿ ϴ. ڴ ̴ Ǹſ ְ Һڿ Ĵ ȹ Ͻ ־ϴ. Һڿ ν ǰ ־ Ḧ ־ϴ. ڴ, θ ν â ɷ ϴ. Ŀ и ڽŸ , â ġ Բ Ǹ ־ϴ. ŷǾ ֽ ణ ϰ, ؿ ۼƮ ˴ϴ.
κ 20 , ڴ Ŀ Ұ ߶ϰ ־ϴ. ̺ ٸ 濵 ٲ ٸ ȸó 쿡Ա Ǹϱ ߰ ġ åϸ ϰ ־ Դϴ. , ȸ ū ڸ ϰ ְ մϴ. Ļ Ϻ ̸ϴ. 濵 ȸ縦 츮 Ϳ ڸ ûմϴ. Ļ꼳 Ĵϴ ٷ , 뷮 ̸ ڸ մϴ. װ CEO , Ư 뱸 ϸ鼭 츸 ո Ḧ ǵ ̾ϴ.
Ż ϸ Ḧ 뿡 ° å ڴ ߰ մϴ. κ ٽ 20 ð 帥 1995, е 100% 鿩 ũ ȸ ϴ. ũŰ ϰ ִ ֽ ̹ 5,000% ̸ ¿ϴ.
"float"
ȸ縦 ū 'float' Դϴ. 'float'̶ ȸ ƴѵ Ͻ ϰ ִ մϴ. ȸ Ư Ư¡ ֽϴ. (premium) ް, ߿ ϸ, ñ ȮǾ ʽϴ. , Ƽ ''ϰ ִٰ, ϱ Ⱓ ȸ翡 ӹ Ǵ Դϴ. ȸ ̿ؼ پ ڸ մϴ. ȸ, 迵 ؼ ణ ڰ ̸ ڿ ٴ · ϴ.
迵 ظ ʰų, ɱ?
Ƽ ϰ ִ Ϳ Ȳ ϴ. ġ 鼭 ڸ Ͱ Դϴ. ڰ ٷ ȸ翴ϴ. ȸ翴 Դϴ. 뱸 迵 ڸ , ' ϰ ִ ' ̿ؼ ֽڸ մϴ. ڸ 鼭 ڸ ƴ϶ Ųٷ ڸ Ƽ װɷ ڸ ߴ Դϴ. ȸ縦 ߸ ֻ (investment vehicle) Ȱ Դϴ.
(commodity)
, ǻ 庮 ġ ݰ ְ, å ġ ̾ ִٴ Դϴ. Ḧ Ҵµ ߿ ؾ ϴ , 'float' ġ ִ Դϴ. ȸ ū ս ˸鼭 帧 ؼ ġϸ Ű ϴ.
Ͻ Ǿ, ݰ Ͻ ̻ ϴ. ǰ ̰ Һڰ ϴ ǰ Ǹϴ ȸ йڰ ӿ ؾ ϸ 縦 ϰ ˴ϴ. ϴ.
ٸ 縦 Ⱦƾ ϴ Ӱ ϰ ȭ ? ũ ȸ NICO GEICO ϰ ֽϴ.
忡 ִ ù ° Ͻ ϴ Դϴ. Ӱ å ֱ Դϴ. GEICO ȸԴϴ. ڴ ٸ ȸ Ǹſ ǰ Ǹϴ , ߰ܰ踦 ְ ǰ Ⱦҽϴ. , پ 븸ŭ · Ź Ͻ ߴ Դϴ. Ӱ ִ 忡 ŵθ ִ Դϴ.
, NICO(National Indemnity Company) 츦 ô. NICO ˷ ȸ絵 ƴϰ 뱸 Ǹ ȸ絵 ƴԿ 38Ⱓ Ǹ ġ Ŀ Խϴ. 迡 ã 濵 ε忡 ãҽϴ.
ݰ ϻ , ݸ 絵 ξ ڸ ִ Ȱϸ鼭 Ȥ Ѿ ʱ ϴ. Դٰ Ͼ Ͼ, Ը Ͼ Ȯϱ غ ϰ ν ̷ ¸ ϰ Ǯ ֽϴ.
̷ ("institutional imperatives") 鸮 ʰ ٴ ظ 鼭 ʴ´ٴ Ģ ϱ Դϴ. NICO ٷ װ , NICO Źϰ ϴ. "Portrait of a Disciplined Underwriter" NICO 24Ⱓ ǥ ϸ鼭 1986 1999 մϴ. ô.
(鸸) | / | 迵(ս)/ | ||
1980 | $79.6 | 372 | 32.3% | 8.2% |
1981 | 59.9 | 353 | 36.1% | (.8%) |
1982 | 52.5 | 323 | 36.7% | (15.3%) |
1983 | 58.2 | 308 | 35.6% | (18.7%) |
1984 | 62.2 | 342 | 35.5% | (17.0%) |
1985 | 160.7 | 380 | 28.0% | 1.9% |
1986 | 366.2 | 403 | 25.9% | 30.7% |
1987 | 232.3 | 368 | 29.5% | 27.3% |
1988 | 139.9 | 347 | 31.7% | 24.8% |
1989 | 98.4 | 320 | 35.9% | 14.8% |
1990 | 87.8 | 289 | 37.4% | 7.0% |
1991 | 88.3 | 284 | 35.7% | 13.0% |
1992 | 82.7 | 277 | 37.9% | 5.2% |
1993 | 86.8 | 279 | 36.1% | 11.3% |
1994 | 85.9 | 263 | 34.6% | 4.6% |
1995 | 78.0 | 258 | 36.6% | 9.2% |
1996 | 74.0 | 243 | 36.5% | 6.8% |
1997 | 65.3 | 240 | 40.4% | 6.2% |
1998 | 56.8 | 231 | 40.4% | 9.4% |
1999 | 54.5 | 222 | 41.2% | 4.5% |
2000 | 68.1 | 230 | 38.4% | 2.9% |
2001 | 161.3 | 254 | 28.8% | (11.6%) |
2002 | 343.5 | 313 | 24.0% | 16.8% |
2003 | 594.5 | 337 | 22.2% | 18.1% |
2004 | 605.6 | 340 | 22.5% | 5.1% |
1986 1999, ̶ ִ (written premium) 1/6 Ϸ پ ϴ. Ϸ簡 ٸ 鼭, Ḧ ݸ и þ ٴ ˰ 鼭, 뿡 ° å Ḧ Ѱ Ѵٴ Ģ Ű Ұɿ ϴ. ó Ư ϴٰ ȿ 濵 ٲ Դϴ. ũŴ ظ 鼭 ø ʾҽϴ. NICO å ŷϰ ߽ϴ. ǥԴϴ. Ը 1/6 Ϸ پ 鼭 ս 鼭 ʰڴٴ Ģ Ų Դϴ.
ϳ, Ը پ µ ũ ʾҴٴ Ư մϴ. ٸ, ذ ʱ ս Ȥ ۿ ϴ. Ư ս ̷ Ͼ ̰ Ȯ Ȯ ̶ Ȥ Դϴ. NICO ϱ 鿡 ' پ ذϴ .' и ߽ϴ.
̷ 縦 ʰڴٴ ҹϴٸ ҹ Ģ ö Ŵν, ڰ ̴ 迡 ŵθ Դϴ. ڰ ׳ б ƴ , ϷϷ پ մϴ. û йڰ ӿ Ģ ٴ 濵̳ ʳ ٸ ʿ Դϴ.
í ƴѵ...
̿ θ ϰ ְ, ǰ ̰ μ ־ ȯ ϳԴϴ. ǰ Ĵ ȸ縦 Ⱦ ߽ϴ. ״ ݴ í(franchise), , ڽŸ ΰ ִ Ư ġ ȸ縦 ߽ϴ. װ ó ġ ִ Ͻ ?
ȸ簡 ִ 'float' ŭ ŷ̾ٴ , 縦 Ĵ Ͻ ִ ȭ ϴٴ ߱ ϴ. NICO GEICO ŵ ٸ ȸ/纸ȸ縦 ϸ Ѹ ϴ.
, Ȯ ϰ Ȯ Ǵϱ ¾ ֽϴ. ̷ Ͼ Ȯ ΰ ϴ ̱ Դϴ.
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