ȳϼ.. ûֹġ ġڿ ؼ ϰ ִ
Ű մϴ. ̹ м Ʈ ÷ϴ.
ǰ Ź帳ϴ.
ûְġں̽ķ ٷΰ
----------------------------------------------
ûֹġ м
(018000)
-ٶ Ǿ~-
õ : 5,450 (04.12.10)
ǰ : ż
1. dz¹ Ȳ
dz¹ dz ̿Ͽ ⸦ , 䰡 ϴ ̴. 2001 dz¹ » ¼ 0.35% ϰ 2002 ǽ Windforce 12 2020 ü 12%ر dz¹ ȮŰ ǥ ϰ , 2040 22% Ȯ ϰ ִ. dz¹ ۵Ǵ ̴.
<dz¹>
ڷ: Wind Force 12,2002
<ֿ䱹 dz± å>
ڷ: , 2002.12
dz¹ ް 忡 dz¹ å Ȱϰ ϰ ִ. ̱, ũ, , Ϻ dz¹ ǹ ϰ ġ ϰ ִ.
츮 쵵 ڿ ü ̿롤(2003.3) ü ѱ¿ Ǹ , ð Ϸ ŷ (Ѱ谡(SMP)) ֵ Ǿ ִ. , dz¹ Kw 107.66 ο ǹ ϵ Ǿ ִ ̴. ڿ 15Ⱓ ȿȴ.
2. dz¹ ڿȲ
(2002.12) ϸ 2012 뷮 3% شϴ 2,270Mw dz¹ Ե Ǹ, ̿ 2001~2012 dz¹ 65.3% ϰ ִ.
, 2000⸻ dz¹ ڿ 33TW/, 1 Һ 4~5% dz¹ ü Ǿ, 2,480 ̻ȭź ȿ ִ Ÿ.
Ϲ dz 5m/s ̸̻ ִٰ Ǵϰ , ڷῡ ϸ dz¹ ڿ ¹, ִ 150MW ϰ ִ.
< dz¹ >
<ֵ dz¹ >
3. ַ» ȯ
Ͻ Ǽǰ, ǰо߿ 20Ⱓ ߰߱ , 2002 ʹݺ dz¹ dz¹ ο ϰ ϴ о õϰ ִ. Ͻ 2001 100Mw Ը dz¹ ֽȸ 40Mw Ը dz¹() 30Mw Ը dz¹(), ¾籤() 4 ȸ縦 ϰ ִ.
<Ͻ ȸ Ȳ>
<Ͻ ȹ>
2004 5 ۵ dz¹ Ǽ 05 ʿ Ǿ 40Mw ϴ Ը dz¹ õǰ ȴ. dz¹ 2005 ݱ ߿ Ʈ ̳ · 1200 ڱ ÿ Ǽ縦 Ͽ 2006 ȹ , dz¹ 2005Ⱓ Ǽ縦 Ͽ, 2006 ִ.
<Ͻ dz¹ȹ뷮 >
Ͻ dz¹ ȹκ Ͽ. 뷮 dz¹ ̿ 25% ðκ Ͽ. dz¹ dz¹ dz¹ 60% Ͽ. ο dz¹ ȹ Ӱ Ǹŷ 391 ο ȴ. ̰ 2000~2003 480 80% ϴ Ը̴.
4.
Ͻ ǼǸ dz¹Ǽ翡 , Ǹűݾ ִ.
(, ) dz¹ Ǽ
:
Ͻ ͱԸ ũ ̴. 04 о 400 ȴ.
Ͻ ȸ dz¹ Ǽ縦 580 Ͽ. 04 400 ݿϿ Ͻ 04 Ը 800, 50 ȴ. 05 dz°Ǽ ܷ 180 ݿ ̴.
2005 dz¹ Ǽ ٸ Ը Ǵ Ǽ Ѿ dz¹ Ͽ 96Mw/40Mw=2.4, 580*2.4= 1,392 Ը ȴ.
2006 10 Ǽ Ѿ ݿѴٰ ϸ, 2005 619, 2006 10 773 ݿ ̴. Ǹŷ ؼ 4 477 ϰ ִ. Ͽ Ͻ Ѿ ϸ .
:
04 65 ȴ. 05 43 ϰ (2000~2003 ġ 51 ü ݿϿ ͷ 12%9% ) ͷ 10% Ͽ ϸ dz¿ 18, dz¿ 62 ȴ. ̸ ϸ .
Ǹŷ
:
Ǹŷ ϴ <Ͻ dz¹ȹ뷮 >信 60% ָ ȴ. , dz¹ 94*0.61=58̸, dz¹ 226*0.6=136̴. ̸ Ǹŷ ϴ Ͻ Ѿ ϸ .
Ͻ dz¹ 2000~2003 477£ 04 800, 05 1319 ÷ 2 280% Ǹ, 2006 Ŀ 꿡 dz¹ Ÿ ĺ ο Ǽ 1,000~1500 ø ȴ.
:
Ǹŷ <Ͻ dz¹ȹ뷮 > ݿϿ. 05 ñ ̷ κ Ǵµ, dz¹ 17*3/4=13 ϸ, dz¹ 41*1/4=10 Ǿ.
Ͻ 50 Ϳ dz¹ Ǹŷ 06 157 ̸ ȴ. 06 Ŀ Ǹ ϸ鼭 ų 100 Ǹ 2000~2003 51 Ͽ 100% ȴ.
5. ǥ
dz¹ ߰ dz¹ Ӹ ƴ϶ ڿο Ǹ ִ ¾翭 ַ» ϴ ¾籤 ȴٸ Ͻ ִ ȸ縦 Ŵ ü ȸ ϸ, ġ ȴ. ǥ dz¹ dz¹ ȹ ݿϿ, dz¹ ʾҴ.
6. dz¹
dz¹ ϱ ؼ 켱 dz Ȯ ִ Ÿ缺簡 ּ 6 ʿϸ, û 㰡 ü 6, 40Mw dz¹ 10 ʿϿ 2Ⱑ ð ʿϴ. Ǽ STX λ 10~100Mw Ը dz¹Ǽ Ÿ缺 縦 ϰ ִ. dz¹оߴ Ը Ȯ ȴ. Ͻ , dz¹ ܿ 17 ĺ Ÿ缺 縦 ǽϰ ִ ̸, dz dzڷḦ س ̴.
dz¹оߴ ̱ о Ը ũ. 10簡 90%, Ư 5 70%̻ Ŀ űۻ ̴. δ ũ VESTAS, NEG-MICON, BONUS 51%, ENERCON, DEWIND 15.8%, MADE, ECOTECNIA 17.8%, Ÿ 15.3% ϰ ־ ũ dz¹ ۻ ŭ ִ.
< dz¹ ü>
ұ 1~3KW 뷮 ü Ͽ Ը ٽɺǰ Կ ϰ ְ, Ÿ̳ ʱ /ðǰ ִ.
Ը 캸, 2003 ü ü ü뷮 19.8Mw Ұϳ, 05 1/4б Ͻ dz¹ ϰǸ 츮 dz¹ü뷮 60Mw ϰ Ǹ, Ͻ ü뷮 66% ϰ ȴ.
<ֿ dz¹ ġȲ ()>
ڷ: ڿ
dz¹ Ѵٸ Mw dz¹ ñϴٰ ִ. dz¹ 2000 ϴ Դü ȿ Բ ؿܽ尳ô ٶ ִ ο о̴. Ͻ 2004 ʷ 750KW Ÿ dz¹⸦ ѵ ̾, 3 ߡо dz¹ ý ְ Ǿ 2004.9~2007 2MW ؿܽ忡 dz¹ ߿ Ͽ.
7. 繫Ȳ ̳ Ȳ
dz¹ 675 ؿ 54.5%, ոȭݿ 22.2% ں 157.5 Ͻ 61% ϴ 96 ڱ Ͽ.
dz¹ Ʈ ̳ BNPĸٿ , 367.5£ Ͽ 1ġ 10Ⱓ յ ȯ̸, ޱݸ 5.7%̴. ոȭ 5ġ 10 յһȯ̸ ޱݸ 3%̴.
dz¹ ڱݾ 1550 ǰ 1200 Ʈ ̳ · ϰ ȴ. Ͻ δ 350 ڱ ڳ Աݵ ؼ ̴µ, Ͻ 2004 ݱ ä 17%(ä105, ں625) ҰϿ ä 100% ü 520 ڱ Ȳ̴.
8. CEO ֿ б
Ͻ 1984 ȸ缳̷ Ǽ, ǰ, ․ǰо ߰߱ ؿ, 1999 濵 ȭ Ͽ κ ȭϴ â ȭ ȸ ϰ ִ.
Ͻ ȭ ȸ Ͻ 52% ϰ , 7.8% ڻ ݵ 6% ϸ 빰 29%̴. ִ ߵ Ŀ Ÿ ̳ ܱڿ ŰϿ л ɼ ִ.
<Ͻ Ȳ>
9. ü źҹ ġ
³ȭ ⷮ ϱ 2004.11.4 þ 2005.2 ȿϰ Ǿ. ³ȭ (Annex1) 2008~2012 Ⱓ߿ ü ѷ 1990 غ 5.2% ϵ, ǿ ෮ ̴.
ڸ ½ǰ ϴ (Joint Implementaion), A ߵ B Ͽ ½ǰ A ݿ ֵ ϴ ûü(Clean Development Mechanism), ½ǰ ǹ ִ ο ŷ ϴ ŷ(Emission Trading) 3 Ŀ ȴ.
м 츮 CDM(Clean Development Mechanism) ET(Emission Trading) ȴ. 츮 ش зǾ (JI) ش ̴. CDM Ͽ û źҹ ؿ ϰų ǰŷ(ET) ü Ͽ ȿ ϰ ½ǰ 忡 ɷ ̴. 츮 ̻ȭź س 90 ̻ȭź ũ þ(19902000Ⱓ 60%) о ȴ.
ĹȿǸ ؿ ԵǴ ¾籤̳ dz¹ü Ը ó ̸, 츸 Ͽ ǹ ִ ƴ ½ǰ ٷ ϴ ϴ ü ٰ Ͽ źҹ Ȯ Ÿ ȴ.
dz¹ ϴ źҹ 尡ġ Ͽ Ҵ. 1 400Mw ϴ dz¹ 1 ź 300~500 ǰ ִ(, 04.11.23). ߰ 400 Ͽ dz¹ dz¹ źҹⷮ źҹ ŷϰ ִ Ʈ CO2E.com ŷǰ ִ 10/1ź ȯϸ dz¹ ġ 42 ȴ.
<dz¹ źҹ ġ>
ź ŷ 10ο 2005 䰡 ϸ 25α ִ. ̹ 1-9 ŷ źҹ ѷ 10 ް ŷ ѷ Ҵٰ Ѵ(Ʈī ڷ). Ȳ ִٴ ĺ 17 ϰ 5 ĺ ߰ ȹ ִ Ͻ 42~100 źҹ ϰ ִٰ ִ. 60%( ְ źҹ ġ ϰ ۼϿ) ϸ 25~60 ġ ִ.
̱ ݴ ȿȴٰ ϴ õ οϱ а δ. ǻ κ ġ ½ǰ ϸ鼭 ϰ ִ ̹Ƿ Ծ õ δ. , ᱹ ϵ ̱ ̿ ̸ Ϸ ü ϴ źұ ġ ִ.
10. ǰ
Ͻ ߰߱ dz¹ ¾翭 ŵ쳪 ȯ ִ.
dz¹ ް ü Ҹ ٸ dz¹ Ȯų ̴. ̷ 鿡 Ͻ Żо . Ͻ dz¹ 2005 1/4б 2002 غؿ dz¹ ̳ Ⱓ ȸ δ.
Ͻ dz¹ 2000~2003 477£ 05 1300 ÷ 280% Ǹ, 2006 Ŀ dz¹ Ÿ ĺ ο Ǽ 1,000~1500 ø ȴ.
, 50 Ϳ dz¹ Ǹŷ 06 160 ̸ ȴ. 06 Ŀ Ǹ ϸ鼭 ų 100 Ǹ 2000~2003 51 Ͽ 100% ȴ.
dz¹ dz¹ ġ簡 ȴٸ, Ͻ ǥ 05 EPS 646 PER 15踦 Ͽ 9,700 ̸ Ǹ, dz¹ 簡 ȴٸ PER 20 밡 δ. ڽ Ͽ Ѵ.
1. dz¹
2. dz¹ Ʈ ̳ ο ޱݸ
3. dz¹ Ÿ ĺ ߰ Ǽ ȹ
ݸ Good to Great ѹٿ DZ ؼ ö Ű ġ ʿϴ. Ͻ 3Ⱓ غؿ ġ ö ų ݺ ָؾ ̴.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
ǻ:
ûֹġ ڼ ֽ ϰ ֽϴ.
ûֹġ ۵Ǿ,
Ȯ̳ Ƿ ڽ Ǵܿ Ͻñ ٶϴ.
쿡 å ʽϴ.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
ְ Ѻ ȸ簰. Ϸ絵 ſ
ϷǼ.
PBR 1.63̰ ROE 7.7% ̰,
EPS 2005 ROE 15 ,
2007 8.9% ̸ϴ.
ȴ BPS, EPS ̸ ,
(ظ ϱ 0 Ͽϴ.)
2004 2005 2006 2007
BPS 3622 4268 4967 5458
EPS 278 646 699 491
2007 ,
ܿ PBR 1 ϸ,
ROE 8.9% ʽϴ.
PER 15 ޱ ƴٰ ϴ.
ROE弼 ʱ Դϴ.
2007 5 ̷ġ ־,
Ȯ .
2007 BPS 5458 ROE 8.9 簡 5450 °
ո ʽϴٸ..
2007 ϴ.
ϽŴ 'ٶ Ǿ'
Ͻ ȹϰ ִ dz¹ Ͽ EPS Ͽ Դϴ.
(̶ ¾籤 ԽŰ ʾҽϴ. )
ι° dz¹ ¾籤 ᱹ ̷ EPS
ϰ ۼϿϴ.
Ƹ Ͻð, ɼ ִ ȹ Ͽ ְ
ؼ Դϴ. ȸ ȹ dz¹ ¾籤 ȹ
Ͽ Ͽٸ 2007 Ŀ EPS Ŀ ټ
־ Դϴ. ϴ ٶ Ѱ Ϳ ǹ Ǿϴ.
ְ ϱ ŭ 强 Ǿ Ѵٰ Ҽ ְ, д
ټ װ а ġ ׳ Ͼ Դϴ.
ִ ȹ ü ԽŰ ͺ ü ǰ
ִ ͺ ȹ ԽŰڰ Դϴ.
dz¹ 3Ⱓ̳ غؿ ȹԴϴ. ʿ dz¹
ȴٸ dz¹ ̳ Ȯ ϴ.
ȣȸ δ dz¹ ̷
ܺο dz¹ ϴ Ʈ ̳̰ ο ް
ä 520, ڸ Ұ 400~500ﰡ ġ dz¹
dz¹縦 ÿ ϴ 繫 ū ̷
ִٰ ǴϿϴ.
dz¹ dz¹ 3/4 ԸԴϴ. ȹ Ǹ
dz¹ dz¹ Ǿ ⼭
EPS̻ 强 ټ Դϴ.
, 츮 κ Ͽ ̷ ȹ
δ ڵ Ǵ Դϴ.
ڰ 1 ϴ ξ, ¥
̷ ڵ ̶ Դϴ.
ٶ ư 3/4 Ǿٰ ֽø ? ^^;;
ϼ̴ٰ ϰڽϴ. (÷ ĸ ãƳ߰ڳ..)
1) dz´ ݾ dz¼ ü ϴ , Ͻ ȭϰ
ִ ô Ǵ?
2) ü Ͽ dz¼ , ܱ꿡 ݰ Ǵ ?
3) ǹԱ 15 ? ǹ ȵ 츦
ؼ Ⱓ (Ͻ ڷ߿)
ǹ dz¿ ?
4) ȸ簡 ǸϿ ŵθ й ϴ , νϴ ?
ƽô 亯 ֽø ϰڽϴ.
Qualitative м ϽŰ , Quantitative м . ڰ ʰ Ѱ赵 ũ.. ּ valuation PBR PER PER ǥ ˱⽱ ؿ ̶ մϴ.
ϼ̱.. ε ̷ñ ٶϴ.
м κ Ѱ ϴ. dz¹ 츮 Ÿ缺 ִ ΰ ʿ䰡 . 5m/s ̻ dz Ǿ Ѵٸ ġ ߿ѵ κ 强 Ѱ谡 ־̱. ¾ ʰ ɱ?
ִ ô Ǵ?
dz¼ ϴ ȸ õ κ̶ ʴ...
ٸ κ dz¼ Ѵٰ Ͽϴ. ̴ϱ.. Ͻ ȭ
ϰִ κ ü ٰ ˴ϴ. ΰ 750Kw
ϱ ʹ 뷮Դϴ. ߿ 2Mw
2 ϳ ߵDZ⸦ ٶۿ ϴ.
2) ü Ͽ dz¼ , ܱ꿡 ݰ Ǵ ?
ߴܰ dz¼ Ҽ ִ ñⰡ ƴմϴ.
°ó 2Mw dz¹ ߽ϴ.
3) ǹԱ 15 ? ǹ ȵ 츦
ؼ Ⱓ (Ͻ ڷ߿)
ǹ dz¿ ?
15 尡 Ծڵ ̳ 15⳻
ȹ dz¹ Ȯȴٸ ɼ ִٰ ϴ.
ȮŰ 20% 뿡 ̸ٴ ø dz¹ ɼ
ִ ˼ Դϴ.
4) ȸ簡 ǸϿ ŵθ й ϴ , νϴ ?
й ưϴ. ʱ иŭ
ϴ(, ͳ ȸ簡 ). 10 Ѿ
2 ʰմϴ( 30ε 50 Ѵ...). ȸ翡 1~2⸸
ȸ翡 Ƿ 15⵿ ȸ ˴ϴ. 亯Ǽ̴? ^^
¾翭 ϵ ̰, ̶ ü ó ؼ Դϴ.
Ͻ κ ڽ 100% ؼ dz´ иϴϱ..(Ʈ ̳ ¸ Ǿ ȸ δ ּȭϰ ȸ翡 δ ϴ ɰ..)
ᱹ ð ü ݰ й
簡 ϴ ý̹Ƿ ÷ ƴϰ, ,
Ͼü PER ϴ
մϴ.
Ͻ 亯 帳ϴ.