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ڿ
, ö ̱ ϸ,
ٺ̸鼭 ߿ ִ Դϴ
ڹ ϴ
ġڰ Ҹ ڹ ̾ ݷ
бκ ,öе Ǹ ش û
öа о߿ پ Ǻо ݼ ְ öڿϴ
Ǻм ƹ ġ â̸,
迡 ӵ ġ ι
ڿ ǿ ̸ ϴµ ϴ
̾ ϱ ߴ 1914
ǰ ְ ϹȭǾ ִ
ô ־ϴ
ڿ ̼ öб ̾
ħ ü մϴ
1976⡶Financial Analysts Journal Դϴ
......
Ȯ 䱸Ǹ, ͺ
ݷ ʿ , Ben װ ־.
ɰ ٸ Ʒ Ѵٸ
Ben Graham ̾
ڡ 1塸ڿ ⡹
..........
1934 ߰ Security Analysis å Ȯ Ͽ.
"ڶ ö мϿ ͼ ϴ ̴.
̷ Ű ϴ Ȱ ̶ ϰڴ"
ֽϴ
ֽĿ ־ "Ȯ" 輺
? 忡 Ȯ ?
ϴ? 忡 ؼ ϰ ?
ڹ ̾ ڡ
8塸ڿ 尡 ̷ ֽϴ
ֽ ֱ̰ ޱ ̴.
ġ ̶ ְ ġ Ϸ Ű ,
ġ ̻ Ĵ ǹѴ
Ǹ 濵 Ǹ ְ , 濵 ְ ´
ڱⰣ
ְ ưԵ
а Ǯ ϴ
ְ ִڻ갡ġ PBR ........................................ ( )
(ֳϸ PBR ְ / ִڻ갡ġ ̹Ƿ)
PBR ðѾ/ںѰ ( )
(ðѾ/) (/ڱں)
PER ROE ........................................................ ( )
ִڻ갡ġ ںѰ/ֽļ
(ںѰ/ں) (ں/ֽļ)
( 100%) 鰡 ...................... ( )
Ҩ翡 Ҩ Ҩ
ְ ִڻ갡ġ PBR
( 100%) 鰡 PER ROE
ְ ⺻ġ ROE PER ִ
PER ȸä ( 1 µ ʿ ũ)
ȸä 뷫 6%( 5.72%)
ȸäͺ 1/0.06 16.7 ( ְͺPER)
ְ ⺻ġ ROE 16.7衽 Ǹ
ROE մϴ
ROE PER/PBR Ǹ ROE PER/PBR ˴ϴ
ROE /ڱں
(/) (/ڱں)
(/ڱں) Ǵ Ϳ ֵ
ϴ 纸ٴ ϰ
ڸ 븦 ʴ
/ڱں ġ ۾ Ǵ ROE ٲ
츮 忡 PERֶ īװ ϴ Ե˴ϴ
̱ÿ īݶ(ROE 40%) ѱÿ Z(ROE 30%)
ΰġ ְ ϴ Ѻκ̶ ϴ
ġ Դ ȸ ø ȸ硹 ε ְڽϴ
ġڿ ֿ
(PER / PBR, PER / PBR, , , ڵ, MS )
ġ ϴÿ Ȱ ϳ ,
̾ ٽɿ ֽڿ ϴ 鵵
ٸ ְ, ٸ ֽ ִ
̾ ġ ִ ʾҴ
Ư, ڡ ηϿ ϰ ִ
ڴμ б ȸ项 Դϴ
..................
ִ Ʋ 'б' ü
ְ 縦 Ÿ ش.
IBM ٸ Ҽ ȸ ū ս о߿
ϴ ⸦ .
굵 鼭 ݿ ŸŵǴ ͳ ֽĵ鿡 ϸ鼭
ڽ Ǻм Ǹ Ѵٸ ͳ ֽ ġ ϴ
б⸻ 蹮 ̶ ߴ.
л ġ ´ٸ
л ް ̶ ߴ.
.....
Ǵٸ ġ źڵ ʱ ߴ
̺ Ƽ ݵŴ ũ ̺꽺 ڱڽ
ġڶ , ״ ٸ ֽĵ Բ Ѷ
ػ罺 νƮƮ, ڵ ֵ ߴ.
Ÿ ....
---------------------------
ġ, Ȥ
---------------------------
̾ ġ ڷ ˷ Դ.
Ϲ ġڵ ִ ̳ Ȥ ΰġ
ŷǴ ֽ δ.
ݸ ֿ ϴ ִ ̳ Ȥ ΰġ
ݿ Ÿŵǰ 絵 ֽĿ Ѵ
̴ ɼ ȸ ֽĺٴ
ȸ ֽ ϱ ̴
̳ Ÿ ٸ
ġ ̶ 忡 ʴ´.
ݿ ŸŵǴ ָ ã鼭
ġ ̶ ߴ.
̷ ݿ̶ ϵ, ̾
ũ ؼ̰ ϰ ִ Ǹ ȸ硸GEICO̴
ȷ Ȩ Ҹ ǼŴ ġ Ҽ Ȩ ãƳ,
پ ° , ߷
ֽ ġ ִ ˾Ƴ.
" ִ Ǹ ָ ãϴ.
ٷ ġ ִ ֽĸ."
Ǹ Ѷ, ػ罺 νƮƮ, ٿ ɹ,
(1999 Ÿ ͳųο μ) ִ.
Ǽ Ѷ ֽ ִ 43 1,000
1,000 43,000 . 1997⸻ , 43,000
ݾ ֽĺҿ ģ 1,000 Ѵ ġ Ǿ ִ.
(ǼŰ Ѷ ֽ ó 1956̾
̹ Ѷ ̷ ٺ ȵ
ڱⰣ ̿!)
ð ǡֽ ̺ ɴϴ
ġֿ
PBR̸鼭 PER ֽ ġֶ ϰ.
PBR̸鼭 PER ֽ ֶ Ѵ
ġִ .ڵ... ߵǾ ְ,
ִ ..ǻ ÷ ߵǾ ִ.
1996 , ̱ 10 ü 8 ü(GE, ī ݶ, ũμƮ,
, Merck, ʸ , P&G, Ʈ) ַ ֵ ݸ,
2 ü(, IBM) ġַ ֵǾ
(īݶ ̸ IBM ġֶ зϰ ֽϴ)
ð ǡֽ ̺å κе
κ ġֿ ֿ κа Ư
ż ִ PER ΰ? ٷ
Nifty Fifty ֽĵ鿡 츮 ϴ
............
1972 ڰ 25Ⱓ ݰ , Nifty Fifty
ֽ 1997 ִ ֿٸ, ڰ 1972 12
ֽĸ ϰ ΰ?
ش 25Ⱓ ġ ִ
ϸ ̷ PER PER Ѵ.
ʸ '72 PER 24迡 ŷǾ
78.2 PER ְ ξ ´.
īݶ PER 90, ũ 70....
Һֿʹ ݴ ִ ſ ߴ
IBM ġ PER 15.4, Ͻ '72 45.8
ġ PER 18.3 , ̵ '72 PER 94.8迴
ġ PER 6迡 Ұߴ.
(ī ݶ, ʸ , Ʈ, ũ, , Ƶ ̸
IBM, Ͻ, ̵ ְ ƴ Ǹ)
..........
̷ ֿ ġ ִ.
̷ ֵ ʹ̻ ġ ϰ ִٴ
ֽĵ 'ݿ ' ص ȴٴ ƴϴ.
պ ϴ ̷ ֽ ġ
ġ ̴
̷ ġ ϴ ֽ .
" ̷ ֽ 쿡
ƮƮ '̼' ϴ ͺ ξ ġ ϰ ִ"
(ںѰ/ں ں/ں)100%
(ںѰ/ں - 1) 100%
(ںѰ/ں) - 100%
ںѰ/ں 100% ˴ϴ