ȭ ġ ϰ ̷ ȸ Ͽ øϴ. ٸ ٺ Ȱ Ѻֽñ ٶϴ.
1. Valuation Model Project
ġڡ , ġ Ͽ ǻ ϴ ڿ ־ ٺ ٷ ġ ΰ? ̴. ̰ ô Ȯ ϴ ɷ̾߸ ڽ ڰ ͼ 㺸 ִ ٿ ̱ ̴. Ȯ Ϸ ص ټ ϰǰ ִ ý Ǵ ã ʴ. а迡 CAPM, DDM, پ ϰ ̵ ̷С Ǹ ְ ִ ̴. ̷ 濡, ̰ ִ ϰ μ ο Valuation Model غ Ѵ.
2. Berkshire Hathaway, 1995
Berkshire Hathaway( BH) Ρ Warren Buffet ϰ ִ ȸ̴. BH Ǹ ġ Ǿִ ߱Ͽ ̸ μϰ, 忡 ϴ 30Ⱓ 28% ͷ ڽ ֵ鿡 Ȱ־.
Valuation Model ù ܰ, 켱 ġ ǥ ص ջ BH Warren Buffet ʸ Valuation ̶ ִ 簡ġ(Intrinsic Value) .
BH 1995 GEICO(General Insurance Company) ȸ縦 μϿ. BH ִ $55.75 ŷǰ ־ GEICO ֽ ִ $70 μϰڴٰ ǥϿ. μȹ ȣ ʾҴ. GEICO ð ̾ ŭ ŷ ȸ簡 ƴϾ, BH ȸ ó Ǵ ͵ ƴϾ. ٸ Buffet ٰſ ̾?
Buffet ϸ 簡ġ(Intrinsic Value) âǴ (discounted value of the cash that can be taken out of a business )̴. ٸ GEICO ڴ ݡ ڿ ȱ ̶ ö мϰ ̷ ̴. ǥ CAPM DDM ̿Ͽ 1995 GEICO ̸ ٰŷ ̷ ְ ְ ִ.
ڷḦ ٰŷ 2000 ְ $90 ְ $125 Buffet ڱݾ ִ $70 30⸸ ̱ ä(ͷ 6.86%) 5Ⱓ ȸ ɼ Ǿ. Buffet ̷ Ͽ ڽ ھ Ȯ ϸ GEICO ھ ŷ 簡ġ ִ ̴.
츮 Ѵ. 簡ġ ̷ 帧 ̿ ߿ ģٸ ΰ?
1ܰ, м ʸ 캸 ̵ ʷκ 簡ġ Ʈ Ѵ. ̸ м 簡ġ ߸ ʸ ã ߸ κм غ ߵ Ʈ û 캸Ҵ.
3. ߸ м 1 - 3R
[2001 2 8Ͽ ǥ Gǻ HֳθƮ 3R Ʈ]
• DVR 120%
• DVR ȣ, űǰ 2001
• ä 19%, 493% 繫
• DVR űԻ 强 ϰ ְ Ǿ ־ ظż õ
• ְ 82,000
2001 1 1Ϻ 2002 5 3ϱ, 3R ü ̵, ڵ ̸ְ ְ ִ. Ʈ ǥ Ÿ. ֳθƮ Ǵܰ 3R ְ ϶ϴ ̰ ִ. ݸ ü ̵ ڵ ְ Ͽ 3R ̰ ִ. 3R 繫ǥ 2001 濵 ʾҴٴ Ȯ ִ. 2001 ȴٴ ǰ߰ ִ.
ٸ м ߸ ϱ?
װ Ʈ DVR 弼 ٰŷ ϳ 3R ϰ ѵ ִ. 2001 DVR ū ٴ ̴ ̵ ڵ DVR ٸ ȸ ǰ, ְ Ȯ ִ. ̷ Ž ȣȲ ұϰ 3R ְ 15000~20000 ӹ ᱹ ȣȲ ڽſ ϰ ̿ ɷ 3R Ῡϰ ־ٴ ǹѴ.
簡ġ ־ Ž ȯ ȣ ٰŷ ü ϴ µΰ ִ ϰڴ.
4. ߸ м 2 – ѿũο̺
[2001 3 12Ͽ ǥ Gǻ KֳθƮ ѿũο Ʈ ]
• ü ü GPS
• 30% ä 繫 پ
• ְ 强 ͼ ȣ, 繫 ȼ, GPS 밨 ݿ 迡 30% ̾ 30,600 ǥְ ظż õ
Ʈ ǥ ְ ̴ .
2001 11Ϻ 2002 5 3ϱ ѿũο̺ ְ ̸ ش. Ʈ ǥ Ÿ. ǥְ 30600 ż õ ֽ 5000 500 ҵ ϴ ǥ ξ ġ ̴. 繫ǥ 캸 ѿũο̺ 2001 ȭ Ȯ ִ.
, , , ǥ ȭ ְ ִ.
Ʈ ó ߸ 3R Ʈ װͰ ϸ Ѵ. , ȣȲ ٰŷ ̴. ѿũο̺갡 ִ ǰ ̳, ̷ ȣ ȯ ٷ ʴ´ٴ ̴. Žȯ ٰŷ ġ , ȯ ȭ óϿ Ȳ ڽſ ϰ ų ִ ɷ ִ ؾ Ѵ ûϰ ִ.
5. ߸ м 3 - Ÿý
[2001 4 10Ͽ ǥ Hǻ KֳθƮ Ʈ ]
• 3D VRü ̵,PC,ùķ̼ پ
• 빰ñII ̱÷ Ӻι 100%
• 00 115% 忡 ̾ 01 ȭ 203%
• 11.4% ä Ȱ 帧
• ü PER ̾ 12% ǥְ 25,900 ظż õ
Ÿý ñ Ӿü̴. 3D Ӹ ƴ϶ ùķ̼ α 忡 ϰ ִ. Ÿýۿ ֳθƮ ð Ӱ ̱忡 õǴ 빰ñ2 2001 ȭ Ǵ ùķ̼ ǰ 븦 ϰ ִ.
Ÿý 2001 200 ϱ Ͽ ֳθƮ 203%ʹ Ÿ ġ̴. ֳθƮ ο ǰ ÷ Ӻι ū ٺ ̹ ̰ Ʈ ߴ ǰ ̱ ȿ ϴ κ ϴ Ÿ.
Ʈ ǥ Ÿý ̻ ϰ ο ôϰ ִ ̰ ־ ̷ 弼 ӵ ̶ ٰŰ ߴ. ǥ 1999 2000 ̻ Ǵ Ȳ ι 1/3 ִ. ̹ ؿ 忡 ϰ ִ Ȳ ǰ ð ȿ ̶ ¿ ʹ Ͽ.
3D ַǿ 켱 ġ ġ Ǿ ִ. ι θƮ ι ؼ ΰġ ڰ ʿϱ Ű ִٴ ɼ ϰ ο ι , Ӿü PER ̾ ٿ ְ ߴ Ǽ Ѵ. 2001 Ÿý 繫ǥ 캸 ұϰ Ͱ ϰ ä ũ ִ. ٰȭǾ ִٰ ؼ ̾ پ ϴ ƴ϶ ̴.
6. ߸ м 4 - ֿ
[2001 3 5Ͽ ǥ Hǻ SֳθƮ Ʈ ]
• 2000 SI ü پ ȣ
• ȭ ý
• 1 Ϸῡ м ǥ ް ȣ
• Ȱ, ȿ η
• ڸ
• Ű ̴ ȭ
• ǥְ 90,000 ظż õ
ֿ SI(System Integration)κп ġ ִ ȸ 2001 츮 ǥϴ 100 14 ִ ̴. ֿ ʰ ֿſ ƴµ, ̴ ֿ ü ſ ұϰ 71% ֿȸ 迭 ־ 2000 ؿ Űϴ ϰ ־ ̴.
ε ķ Ҵ 99 Ϳ ū ڸ 99 ̷ 1 ΰ 2000 谡 Ѵ ѷ turn-around¡ĸ . ֳθƮ Ʈ ǥ 2000 ̺ 繫ǥ ǥ ֿ Business Model̳ ָ Ʈ 뿡 ̾.
¿ 迭 Ű ̴ ȭ ̶ ȣ ǥ ſ Ǵ̾. ֿ 迭 ϰ ־ ֿ ܱ ݵ Įϰ Ű ϰ ־µ Ű Ǹ鼭 ǰ ְ ѱ ֹ پ鼭 Ʈ ǥ 2001 1б Ÿ. μ Ҿ װ Ǹ鼭 ȭǰ ְ ϴ ⸦ ° Ǿ. Įϰ ֿ иŰ ĵǾ Ű ̷ ʾҰ ְ 50%̻ Ͽ.
̹ Ʈ ܿ 2001 ݱ ֿſ żõ ǰ Ʈ Ұ ܱ ǻ 쵵 2001 3 6 ǥְ 10 ̻ ϴ ֿ ְ 翬 Ƶ鿩 δ. 2001 ýڿ Ʈũ ü ְ SI,NI ʾҰ иŰ ĥ ǿ ѱ ֿ ְ ȭ ̷ ߴ Ǽ ְڴ.
ֿſ Ʈ ռ м ʿ ٸ ҿ ؼ Ȯ м س Ű ܺ ο Ȯ м Ῡ ߸ ߴ ̴.
7. м Ȯ Ʈ –
[2001 1 19Ͽ ǥ Hǻ LֳθƮ Ʈ ]
• 00 EPS 86.6% ְ ̸ ݿ ϰ PER 4 .
• 01 귣 ȭ 9.5% ̴.
• 01 濵 ϰԵ ̴.
• ڽڻ,ܱ, PER м Ͽ 6 ǥְ 65,600 ϸ ظż õѴ.
ְ ֵ Ȯ ְ ִ Ʈ̴. Ȯ س Ʈ ؼ ռ 캻 Ʈ ٸ ƴϴ. Ʈ ǥ м ٰŷ ´ٴ 繫 ٴ ã ٴ ߰ߵǴ Ư¡̴. Ʈ ռ м Ʈ ٺ ٸ ε ̶ ٰŸ ְ ִٴ ̴.
Ʈ 캸 ϴ ִ ȭǰ 켭 ο ܺθ ƿ츣 ð Ȯ߰ ü м ؼ 忡 ü 귣 κ ȭ 귣 ȭ ǰ ŵΰ ִ ȮϿ ̷ ϴ ̰ ִ. ܼ ǰ ÿ ̳ ó ϴ Ǽ ʰ cashflow ü ٰŸ ãƳ ̴.
8. Ȯ Valuation
ռ 캻 Ȯ Ʈ 4 ,
3R - DVR 弼 ٰŷ ¿
ѿũο̺ – ǰ ð Ѵٴ
Ÿý – ¿ . ǰ м
ֿ – ٰ ؼ ܺ ġ
ġ ϴ ġ ̴ٶ ϴ Ϸ ۾ ƴ϶ ڿ cashflow ϴ ̷ ۾̴. Ȯ Ʈ Ʈ ǥ ٰϿ 弼 ε ΰ мسµ Ͽ. ̴ ġ ǰ м Ʈ Ʈ ִ ̴.
м ϴٺ ϰ Ǵ Ǽ κ ߰ϰ Ǹ ġ Ű ʱ ٸ κе ϰ ȴٴ ̴. ߰ߵǴ ణ 忡 Ÿ ϰ Ѿ ִ Ҵ . ݺǴ м ̰ ؼ Ģ ʿϴ. Valuation Model â ٽ Ǵ ̴.
繫 ֽİ ⺻ Ҵ ȸ ̴. GEICO ֽ ġ ξ ΰ 强 ġ ⺻ Ȯ ش. ϸ ¾ ̾߱ϴ ڿ ֿ Ģ ִµ ̷ ϴ Ͽ Ѵٴ ڸ ̴. Valuation Model Project ʿ伺 ϸ ̹ Ʈ ġ Ϲ Ģ âϴ Ϸ õ ϵ ̴.
Written By ڿȸ 2 (,,)
- Valuationø ӵ˴ϴ. -
( 0)