ġ ̱ Beating the Street in 1993
: ġ with νϵ Peter Lynch with John Rothchild
ű: Ǽ / : ̻
帧 / 2008-05 / 556 / \\22,000
ġ, , 3 ϴ.
1. One up on Wall Street in 1989
2. ġ ̱ Beating the Street in 1993
3. ġ ̾߱ Learn to Earn in 1995
å ° ٸ å ˷ ۵ ϵ ġ ϴٰ մϴ. پ Ƿ ø Ƹ߾ ڵ ʸ 鼭, 츮 ڰ ڿ (ϱ) ġ Ӹ ƴ϶ ( ʰ)麸 ͷ ø ִٴ, ̱ ִٴ ⸦ ˴ϴ.
<> ְ ⸦ ϴ 46 ̸ ̿ ߴ (100% ) ϰ äκ Ż̶ <ѷα> ä ֽĺ ϹǷ ݵ ֽڸ ؾ Ѵٴ մϴ. ֽڿ ϱ ؼ (Ұ)̷ Ϸ ڿ մϴ.
̷ Ͽ θ ϱ . ̷ پ ؼҼ Ұ Ŷ ̴.
ֽ̳ ֽ ݵ带 ϵ ñ д ڰ ŵ ŭ ִ ο ִ. ֽ ϴ Ӹ ƴ϶ ¯̴. ڴ ƹ Ӹ Ƶ ұ ϰ ٴϴ Ѿ ֽĽ忡 ´.
21 ٷ ֽϴ.
1, Ƹ߾ ڴ ڿ .
2, ڸ ν ް Ǵ η غ
3,
4~6, ݵ ȸ
7~20, 1992 1 <跱> ӿ õߴ ֽĵ鿡 /
21, õߴ ֽĵ鿡 6 ߴ
1, ģ Ȩ
- Ǹ ͷ ø Ʊ׳ б 1 Ŭ ִٴ ȸ(NAIC: National Association of Investors Corporation) ڿĢ Ұմϴ.
- ġ Ѱᰰ ( )Ƹ߾ ̱ ִٰ ߴµ, å ó پ Ƹ߾ Ұϸ鼭 մϴ.
Ʊ׳ б 7г л ϴ ֽ Ģ
- Ģ ʴµ, ( ־)̵ ̷ ڿĢ ٴ űϱ ؼ űϴ.
1. κ ų ø.
2. ܱδ ظ ִ. ð ŵΰ ȴ.
3. ֽĽ ƴϴ. ְ ֽ ƴ϶ س ̶ Ѵٸ ֽڴ .
4. ֽĽ忡 ū ū ִ. 츮 ߴ.
5. ϱ ݵ ϰ мؾ Ѵ.
6. ֽĿ л ؾ Ѵ.
7. ؾ Ѵ. ֳϸ ϵ 밳 5 ϳ ϳ ڰ 3 ̱ ̴.
8. ֽİ . ϶.
9. ⸸ ؼ ȴ. ݵ ؾ Ѵ. м Ѵ.
10. , , , ֽ ֱ . ū ִ ִ.
11. ְ ٰ ؼ .
12. ֽ .
13. ְ δٰ 缭 ȴ. ˱ Ѵ.
-> پ ö ⺻ ̵ ηϴ.
ȸ(NAIC: National Association of Investors Corporation) 5 Ģ
- Ʊ׳ б ֽ Ģ ġ 5 Ģ ڰ ؾ Ģ̶ մϴ.
5 ֿ ϸ 3 ߴ ͷ , ϳ ġ ߴ Ǹ, ϳ ߴ ̻ ͷ ÷ ¦ .
̻ ͷ Ǹ ϴ Ұϴ. NAIC Ʈ ּ 5 ̻ ؾ Ѵٰ ǰѴ.
2, ȸ ġ ʴ - ָ ı The Weekend Worrier
- δ ֽڰ ܺ ͷ Ƿ ġ ֽ ϰ ִٸ ܱ ְ Ȥ 庯 鸮 ų Ƽ ּ ڹ̶ մϴ.
ֽڷ ְ ϶ η ֽĽ忡 ʾƾ Ѵ.
ڽ ؼ ְ ̶ Ȯ 忡 ٰ Ȯ 忡 ٴ Ȳ ä ȹ ϴ ´.
ų ʴ Ͱ ֽڴ 谡 δ. ֽ ų ʴ ִ. 繫ǥ м̳ ְͺ 꿡 ְ ص ų ٸ ϰ ֽ .
70Ⱓ ֽ ͷ 11% ݸ ä ä, CD ͷ ݿ ġ ߴٴ δ. 20 ũ ұϰ, ̷ Ͽ ִٴ Ű ұϰ ֽ äǿ Ȱ. ο ΰ ϴ ħü ϴ ǰ߿ ൿϴ ͺ ξ θ ̴.
70Ⱓ ֽĽ ٸ ڴ ͷ ؿ 10% ̻ 40̳ ־ٴ ǵ ص ϴ. 40 ϶ 13 ְ 33% ߶ ù ̾. ְ ϶ еϰ ŭ ̾ 1929~33 Եȴ.
3, ݵ A Tour of the Fund House
- ڱ 뿡 մϴ. ֽ:ä ΰ, ڱ ˳ϴٸ Ÿ ȵǰ ϴٸ ֽ ִ ø ո̶ ġ Դϴ.
- ä Ⱓ ä ŭ ÷̼ ڻ ǹǷ ᱹ ϴ ڴ ϴ Ȱ پ Ȳ óϱ Դϴ.
(̱ ֽڵ ַ ֽ ݵ带 ϴ ڰ ؼ̰)ݵڿ κ̶ оϴ. ~ ݵ尡 ͷ Ҵٴ ~ ϸ鼭 ^^
ֽ äǺ ξ ʱ ̴. ֽ 70Ⱓ ڿ 10.3% ⱹä 4.8% ڸ ִ ƴ.
ֽ äǺ ͼ ϴ. þ ֽ ֵ ͵ þ ̴. ֽ ߿ ̴. Ʈ ü 10 Ǵ 20 ִٸ ߸ Ȯ ٰ ִ.
4~6, ݵ 뿡
- ݵ带 ߴ 13(1977~1990) 3 , Ǽҵ 鿩 پ ø ־ մϴ.
4. ݵ ʱ Managing Magellan – the Early Years
- 1977, ڻ 1,800 1981 5,000 ҷȽϴ. Ⱓ (1981, 130 ) ȸ( 300% ̻) Ư¡˴ϴ.
ȸ 繫 ġ 濵 ֵ Ϳ Ű Ȯ ݺѴ. 繫 ȣȭ 濵 ֵ鿡 ַ ϴ.
ֽ ã ڽ ϱ⺸ٴ ִ ֽĺ ֽ ã ٴϴ µ ߴ.
̾ƹ ʿ ش.
Pulling out the flowers and watering the weeds.
-> ũ οϱ ġ ȭߴ, Դϴ.
5, ݵ ߱ Magellan – the Middle Years
- ֽĽ 鼭 1981 ݵ ǸŸ ߰ڱ ߴµ, ͷ п û ڱ ϴ.
- ڱ ȯ ȸ 300% 110% Ͽ ϱ ߴٰ մϴ.
- 1982 ڻ 4.5 Ŀϴ.
ڿ ϱ ߿ ϳ ֽ ƴ϶ ߴ ̴.
This is one of the key to successful investing; focus on the companies, not on the stocks.
-> ̾, ƴ 밡 ̷ մϴ.
ڵ ְ ڱȸ ־ Ȳ غϷ ϴ . ־ Ȳ Ͼٸ ־ ֽó ̴. ݸ ־ Ȳ Ͼ ʴ´ٸ( 縦 ξ ɼ ) ɽ ణ ̳ ڻ Ⱦƹ ̴.
-> Ͻ ְ϶ ϴ ٶ ڼ Ϸݴϴ.
6, ݵ ı Magellan – the Later Years
- ݵ ݾ ū Ҵ ſ ū εݵ带 ϰ ִٴ ߽ϴ.
- ڼͷ ߴ 13 ѹ ̳ʽ ͷ Ӹ ƴ϶ ͷ ռ ߽ϴ.
- 1984ʹ ؿ ֽĵ ϸ鼭 ؿֽ 1986 20% þϴ.
- 1987 5, ݵ ڻ 100 ߴµ, Ҿ ڻ꿡 ϸ鼭, ƴٴ , ߴٰ մϴ.
- 10 ־ յ
- 1990, ϴ ݵ Ը 140 – ݺ 14
-> 1987 յ̸ 鼭 ϰ ־ Ѵٴ ٰ մϴ. ġ ֽ 100%ٰ ϰ ݺ߿ Ⱑ ġ Կµ, ϴ ɰ 2° ϴ.
ֽ ̹ ϰ ִ ̴ֽ.
The best stock to buy may be the one you already own.
ϴ ֻ ó ٸ ϴ ־ ó ξ ڴٸ ֽ Ƹ ٰ 밨 ӿ ǥϰ ɼ .
When your best-case scenario turns out to look worse than everybody elses worst-case scenario, you have to worry that the stock is floating on a fantasy.
ֽĿ Ҵ β ƴϴ. ֽĿ ߴٰ ظ ִ. β ظ ֽ ִ ̰, ̺ ݴ ִµ ֽ ̴.
Theres no shame in losing money on a stock. Everybody does it. What is shameful is to hold on to a stock, or, worse, to buy more of it, when the fundamentals are deteriorating.
äǽ ä ɷ ִ ϰ мϴ ڵ ̷ ִ. 꿡 Ǹ û ä ֽĺ ռ ä ȸ ִٸ ֽ ̺ ξ ġ ٴ ˰ ־ Ѵ.
迡 ϳ ڸ ̷. 濵° ν äǰ ̰ ִ ϶.
ȯִ ī . ʹ ϸ Ұ ̴.
Cyclicals are like blackjack: stay in the game too long and its bound to take back all your profit.
7, ã
- , Ž Art, Science, and Legwork
- <跱> ų 1 ϴ <跱> ̺ гη ؼ õߴ 21 õ մϴ. Ǵ ̳ ٴ ˷ְ ;ٰ մϴ.
ÿ ̴. ʹ ġġ . Ӹ 繫ǥ ӿ óڰ 꿡 ϴ ֽڷ Ѵ. 繫ǥ ̷ ִٸ ڵ ȸ Ǿ ̴.
<跱> ̺ ó ߴ 1986, 100 ̻ ֽ õߴµ, 1990 ֽ õߴٰ մϴ. ڷκ õ ʴ ֽ ϴ ʴĴ ( )Ƴ ߽ϴ.
1991 21 õߴµ,
- ã ٳ ð ڷ ٲ鼭 ߱ϴ !
Ҿڶ 5 Ģ 5 ִ. 5 ϳ 10 4 ص ڻ 3 þ.
The smallest investor can follow the Rule of 5 and limit the portfolio to 5 issues. If just one of those is a 10-bagger and the other 4 combined go nowhere, youve still tripled your money.
-> ġ ϹǷ One more^^
ħü ̰ ħü ֽĽ忡 ż ȸ η ִ. 忡 ֽ ãⰡ . ϴ ڵ 300Ʈ ٴ 300Ʈ ູ ̴.
-> ֽĽ ϴ 1992 1 跱 ̶ ϴµ, óδ, ݴ Ȳ Դϴ.
ְ ٴ ֽ ϴ Ǵ ƴϴ. ٰ ؼ ֽ Ⱦƾ ϴ Ǵ ͵ ƴϴ.
Just because a stock is cheaper than before is no reason to buy it, and just because its more expensive is no reason to sell.
8 ~ 20, 1992 õߴ 21 ֽĿ 6
- 1992 õߴ 21 ֽĿ 6 ϰ ֽϴ.
-> ġ 6 ѹ ϴ ϴٰ б õǴ 3 ؾ Ѵٰ մϴ
- ʷα 2 ̵ ϰ ϰ ִµ. ε ֽĿ ϸ Ǵ ֽϴ.
ֽڿ Ģ ֽ ų ؿ ȷ Ѵ. ̶ ų þ ӵ Ѵ.
ͼ ٸ , Ư ݵŴ ٷ⸦ ηϴ , ϸ ϱ ϴ о߸ İ Ѵ.
ŵؼ ں ϳ ȭǰ ִٴ ǰ 뼼 ٷȴٰ ֽ ̴.
ְ ڻָ ݺ ٸ ̴ õغ ̴. ӿ ڰ ְ ݿ ֽ 鿴ٸ ̴ ȣ̴. ڰ ڱ ȸ翡 ؼ ϴ ̴.
ٴ .
ü 忡 ÷ ϴ 忡 پ Ű ϴ ξ .
º .
ħü Ƴ ڵ ϴ ϸ 180 ٲ ִ.
ֽĽ忡 α ִ ݾ ϳ < Ҹ ︱ 缭 鸱 ȶ> ̴. ݾ ߸ ̶ Ѵ. ҽ 鸱 ֽ ſ ̴. Ư ҽ ҽ ȭǴ .
The popular pre scription <Buy at the sound of cannons, sell at the sound of trumpets> can be misguided advice. Buying on the bad news can be a very costly strategy, especially since bad news has a habit of getting worse.
ҽ ֽ ξ ǰ ̸, ҽĿ ٰŰ Ȯ ٷȴٰ Ȯ ̴ ̴.
Buying on the good news is healthier in the long run, and you improve your odds considerably by waiting for the proof.
ֽڶ Գ ҰѴ.
1Ⱓ ϳ ¤ غ ִ غ. ٰŸ ߰ ߴٸ, ֽ ϰ ־ ϳ? غ.
κ ֽĿ PER ٴ ¡ . ȯֿ ʴ. ȯ PER ſ ٸ ̴ ȣȲⰡ ȴٴ ǹ̴. ڵ ߵǰ ͼص ٴ ȯֿ Ȳ ٲ. ڵ ŵ ϱ ̶ ȯָ óѴ.
ȯ ڿ ⺻ ʹ Ǹ ä ʹ ֽ Ĵ ̴.
The principal danger is that you buy too early, then get discouraged and sell.
̳ ̸ ٲٴ 2 ϳ.
ȥ(պ) ߰ų ر⸦ ٶ 糭 ߰ų.
ֽ ̻ ø ؼ ֽĽ忡 ǰ ־ Ѵ. ֽ ó ݿ ȸ ̴.
ֽĽ ǰ ǰߺ ̶, ϰ ؼ ̱⸸ ƴ϶ Ȯ ʿ䰡 ִ.
21, 濵ȭ Ȯ the Six-Month Checkup
- 6
- ġ ϰ Ʈ 6 ϸ鼭 1, 2ܰ Ƽ ȿ̶ մϴ.
1ܰ, 2 ⺻ ־ մϴ.
1) ֽ Ͱ ְ ŷΰ?
2) ø ϰ ִ°?
2ܰ, 1ܰ 3 ϳ ˴ϴ.
1) Ȳ . –> ڸ ÷ Ѵ.
2) Ȳ . -> ڸ ٿ Ѵ.
3) Ȳ . –> ڸ Ȱ ŷ ٸ ؾ Ѵ.
ְ ֱٿ ̹ 2, 3 Ǵ 4辿 ߴٴ ֽĿ ʴ ũ Ǽϴ ̴. ִ ֽ ֽĿ Ű ó Ѵ. Ű ٷ ϴ ̴. ־ ƹ .
-> ̷δ Ǵٰ μ ϱ ħԴϴ.
23 Ȳݷ 23 Golden Rules
- 20Ⱓ ϸ鼭 ߿
-> ġ ڽ 迡 25 ߽ϴ. ʹʹ űϴ.
5. ް, Ⱓ ְ 쵵 ִ. ְ 100% Ǿִ. ֽ 100% 谡 ִ. ֽ ִ ٽ ̴. γ , ϴ ֽ ־ ´.
Often, there is no correlation between the success of a companys operations and the success of its stock over a few months or even a few years. In the long term, there is a 100% correlation between the success of the company and the success of its stock. This disparity is the key to making money; it pays to be patient, and to own successful companies.
16. ֽĽ ϶ϴ 1 ġ ŭ̳ ϻ ̴. Ǿ ִٸ ְ϶ ſ Ÿ .
ְ϶ dz ġ ֽĽ ڵ ֽ ΰ ִ ȸ̴.
A stock-market decline is as routine as a January blizzard in Colorado. If youre prepared, it cant hurt you.
A decline is a great opportunity to pick up the bargains left behind by investors who are fleeing the storm in panic.
17. ֽĽ忡 ִ Ӹ ƹ ¯ ִ ƴϴ.
ְ϶ η Ⱦġ ̶ ֽڴ ֽڵ ؾ Ѵ.
Everyone has the brainpower to make money in stocks. Not everyone has the stomach. If you are susceptible to selling everything in a panic, you ought to avoid stocks and stock mutual funds altogether.
-> ð 2 ´ٴ , ()ڰ Ƴٸ 淯ٰ ϴµ ġ ٸ.
18. ҽİ Ÿ ְ ̴. ָ ʹ ϶.
ֽ ȷ ݴ ȭ Ⱦƶ. ٴ ֽ .
There is always something to worry about. Avoid weekend thinking and ignore the latest dire predictions of the newscasters.
Sell a stock because the companys fundamentals deteriorate, not because the sky is falling.
ʷα Post script
ֽĽ γ Ѵ. ϴ´ٸ γ ֽ ٷ Ѵ.
The stock market can test your patience, but if you believe in a company, you hold on until your patience is rewarded.
å Ȱ ִٴ ʵ ϰ 1990 ֽĿ ʷ ÿ ϱ ֽ κ ̶ ̷ϰ ֽϴ. 츮Դ ̱ ̶ֽ . ġ Ϸִ ϴ / ε Ȱ ġ ϴٰ մϴ.
ġ å [ ] ʹ ϰ ó , 3° å [ ġ ̾߱] ڰ ó б ڰ [ ] Ȥ å ڴٴ Դϴ.
: å 4° оµ, ġ ũ ߴ 2 ̹ μ ߽߰ϴ. β 㱸̶ ã ε.
1. Ʈ ֽ 100% ä ˰ ־µ, 1987 յ̸ ʹ ݺ 10% ٴ Դϴ.
-> κ 츮 ֽݵ κ ݺ ̹ϰ ݵŴ ġ ֽ 100% 翬߰ ߿ ݺ 10% ٴ ̷ٰ̾ ְڽϴ.
2. ġ ֽĵ ִĴ ⸦ û ֽ Ʈ ä ߽ϴ. 跱 ȸǿ ٸ ڵ ֽ Ұߴٰ ϴµ. ڿԴ ֽ ʿ䰡 ٰ ߴ ˾ ü 10 ֽĿ Ʈ 5 ̻ ʿ ٸ ڸ ߴٴ ̴ϴ.
-> (̿ ؼ) ġ ֽ 6 о߷ о߿ ߽ϴ. 6 о ߿ ȣߴ ֿ ڸ ߴ ƴұ ϴ.
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