ȭ Adaptive Markets in 2017
: ص Andrew W. Lo
ű:
ũ / 2020-01 / 550 / \\24,500
å ո ̿, 簡ġ ֽ ߱ؼ ڼ ʾ ̷ ڹ ۵ ʴ´ٴ ٰ մϴ. øϴ ߿ 2017 <̳Ÿӽ> Ͻ ĺƮ å ߰߰ 鼭 ū ϱ ߴٰ մϴ.
ڿ å ο å 츮 Ұߴ ݹ öϴ. ٷ [ ڵ ι] ڼǥԴϴ. ̹ Ƿ ڿ翡 Ȱ ε ϳ ִµ... [ ϱ] õ縦 ־ٴ^^
ݵŴ 1 2008 ⸦ ¾Ҵ 淡 ˾ƺ, а 99й, . ǥ ˰ ־µ, CIO CEO ߾ٴ ˰ Ǿϴ.
<ű > 鼭 ־ ʹʹ ǽϴ. å űó ذå ?
Ȳ ϳ ȭϰ ֽϴ. ġ 忡 ˴ϴ. ġ ɸ ǵư ӵ ź ϰ ϴ. Ư ֱٿ ӵ ʹ ݰ ġ ó ̱ մϴ. Ȥ ġʹ ʹ ġ Ǵϴ ü ſʹ ƴұ ϴ ϴ.
ص δ MIT 濵п ̸鼭 Ʈڿ縦 ϱ ̷а ȭ ö 忡 ߴٰ ű ̸ ٸ鼭 å ߽ϴ.
ȭ ð ʴ Ӽ̶ ó ϴ. Ǵ Ӽ ־ ȯ濡 Ƴ ̰, ȯ ٲ ȭ ֽϴ. ڴ ٶ ȭ ϸ鼭 ո ΰ ƴ װ ü ȭ ϴ. å ġ ٷ ȭ, ش ƴ ִٰ մϴ.
ű̴ ְ оٰ ϴµ, Դ ȿ尡 ൿ ϴ ̶ ִ 5ʹ ư ϴ. ű å Ұ ٽ IJ ڰ ߴ , dz鼭, б 絶߽ϴ.
ڴ ȿ尡(Efficient Market Hypothesis) Ųٴ 濡 ڽ ̷ 尡(Adaptive Market Hypothesis) ̸ ٿٰ մϴ. (Ƹ)ڴ ȿ尡 ŷϴ ڷμ ϴ ̷ ɰ ߰ϸ鼭 ̸ ϴ ڽ ̷ ִ ϴ.
ȿ尡 / ΰ ̼ ൿϴ ո ΰ̶ Ͽ ˴ϴ. ݸ鿡 尡 ȭ ǥǴ ν ΰ Ȳ ൿ ٴ Ͽ ˴ϴ. 츮 ո ƴ϶ ո̰ ϴ ̶ ǵ.
ڿ ־ ȿ尡 ̱ Ƿ 常ŭ ͷ ִ εݵ忡 ϴ ּ ڹ 尡 ݵ, Ʈ Ȥ εݵ 庸 ͷ ߱մϴ.
ű̵ ߵ ̷ ڿ Ȱؼ ִ ü ϴ ƴһӴ ϼĿ ۴ܰ迡 ϴ. ܰ迡 ȿ尡 ǰ κ ִµ ǹ̸ ִٰ մϴ.
-> 鼭 ڹ ϴ ϸ鼭, ָմϴ. Ƹ ڰ ϱ Ѱ谡 ־ ̰.
尡 ո ϴ ġ ʰ ڵ ൿ ִ ӿũ ش.
ĸ (ʰ )εݵ带 , ǥ 缭 ϴ εݵ带 غ. Ⱓ صθ, εݵ ѵ нú ڸ ϴٰ ġ ݺ ÷. ݴ Ϸ Ἥ ϵ ִ.
–> 尡 忡 ϴ ϳ , ϴ εݵ忡 ʰ ִ ϰ ֽϴ.
-> 忡 ڴ ̷ εݵ ڹ < εݵ> ߽ϴ. , ڰ ڵȭ ־, ΰ ʴ´ٰ մϴ.
п ϴ. ű ǰ å 캸,
1~4: ڰ ϰ 尡 ϱ ȿ尡 ൿ ϰ ̷ ٰŰ Ǵ Ƽ꿡 մϴ.
5~8: ռ ַ ̷ /ü ִ մϴ. ڰ ϴ 尡 ̷ ٿ ȭп ϰ (εݵ) ̱ ִ ڹ/ ݵ, ݵ, Ʈ Ұմϴ. 8忡 εݵ尡 ϴ ϰ ̿ Բ ƮŸ εݵ带 ¦ Ʋ ̱ ִ ϱ մϴ. ʿ ϴ 뿡 (Ϻ) ߽ϴ.
9: ȭп ٰ 2008 ⸦ 캾ϴ.
10~11: Ž ȯϴ Ű Ž̰ å ˴ϴ.
12: ڰ ٶ Ȥ ں ̿ؼ η ٴ θ ִµ, ( ) ް Ǿ β ϴ.
ȣϴ Ҽ д ̴ ֽĽ忡 ´ٴ ٸ (絶ϸ鼭 ^^) ʰ ϴ. å ģ ߿ ܵΰ ߿ ǿ ű鼭 غϴ.
* Ƽ(Narrative): ΰ, ƶ ϴ ̾߱
* : Ƽ긦 ɷ. ΰ踦 Ȯϰ ǥϴ ɷ
* Ƽ: ̷ Ȯϰ ϴ Ƽ
* ũ ȿ(Pygmalion effect): ΰ踦 ϰ ϱ 츮 ڽ Ƽ갡 ൿ ٲν Ƽ꿡 ġ ƴ Ǵ
* ȭ: ȿ 밡 Ʒ Ѱִ Ư Ÿ ȭ. - ȭ ƴϴ. ȭ Ű ڿ Ŀ ȿ ҸŰ س ̸ ɵ ȭŰ ʴ´.
Ϸ 밨 Ϸ , 밨ϰ Ϸ .
- ũ ϴ Ϸ , Ϸ Ϸ ϰ ɼ .
-> ٰ ŵ, !^^
ȭ(satisficing): ո ΰ ݵǴ 뺸 ȿ ִ ã Ѵ. ̷ Ǵܰ ϱ Ʈ ̸ ϴ(satisfy) ϴ(suffice) ܾ ؼ ܾ.
ѵ ո(bounded rationality): üμ Ϻ ã س ƴ϶, ִ ãƳ ش ִ Ѵ
- Ʈ ̸ .
尡(Adaptive Market Hypothesis): ȯ濡 س ȭ/ν ո پѴ ο . ȿ尡 ൿ £ ߰ߵǴ 浹 ο .
2008 ո̰ų ̼ ǻǴܰ Ÿ ־ δ. ݸ ȿ尡 ΰ ո ൿ ϴ ൿδ Ⱑ ߹ϱ Ⱓ ӵǾ Ѵ.
-> ȿ尡 ൿ Ѱ迡 մϴ.
尡 , ý ̰ų ý ƴϴ. ý ϴ ȣ ȯ溯ȭ ӿ ݺϴ ° ̴.
-> ΰ ý ̴ ü̹Ƿ п (ü)ȿ尡 մϴ.
2006 ũ þƿ κ ҽϴ.
þ: ̱ ó ̳. ƹ ϴ. ǰ?
ũ: ̱ ߱ο ȾƼ ϴ.
-> ø ְ о ø ̱ ΰ? 2006̳ 2020̳ ǹ ״Ӵϴ.
尡 ü Ͽ ΰ ൿ Ϲ Ư ̴. ü ҿ ΰ ൿ, ϳ Ѵٸ ʴ´. ҿ ΰ ൿ ⸦ , ݺǰ ϴ ٺ ̴. 20 ɰ Ȳ ӵ ũ ϱ ߴ. ̰ ƴ϶, ȯ溯ȭ ո ϴ ̴.<>
尡 ý ȿ ϴ
1. پ
2. ó ȯ,
3. ȯ ȣۿ̶ 3 鿡 ý Ư Ѵ.
尡 츮 ý ų , ġݰ ߴ ý ٲ ִٰ ش.
ó ѷ ذå ߰ ŭ ߴ ڽ ̹ б Դϴ.
ְ ġ ϰ ִ, ո̹Ƿ ̱ ٴ ȿ尡 ְ ɸ ϸ鼭 ΰ ո ʴٸ ȿ尡 ϸ ִ ൿ ֽϴ. п ȭ 尡 ַ ̷ κ /ü ̷ մϴ. ̱ ڹ Ұϸ鼭 ̱ ϴ ó ̴ ڵ ߵ, ̿ϼ ̷̱ մϴ.
ű̵ ʳ ߵ, å ڿ Ǵ ڹ̳ ߰ ϴ. ߴ(?) ṵ̋ å ( 밡 ƴ϶) ƴϾ ͽϴ. ڰ ģ ˾Ƴ ָ а / ϴ.
ȿ ź /帧 а ݵ 縦 ϰ 캼 ִٴ ( ʾҴ) ־ 1 ½ ִ ٵִ ־ϴ. и ϵ ġ ڿ ϰ å ƴմϴ. δ 絶Ϸ ϴµ, ݺٴ ϴ մϴ.
:
1. ű̴ 2014 ̹ å () å ֽϴ. [չ]ε, 2011 Ⱓ å 쿬 ߰߰ å̶ 3⸸ Ⱓ ־ٰ մϴ.
1-1. å а ϴ İ Ἥ ߾µ, ̹ 6 İ ٽ 鼭 Ȱ鿡 [չ] Ǵ å̶ ̴ϴ.
1-2. 2008 ӵ ȭ å Ѳ ƿö ִ ۷ι ڻ갡 Ѱ? ·ο . Ͱ ְ ϴ Ϲ ġ ̱ ֽĽ ġ ̹ 2000 IT ִ.
ó ڻ갡 ϰ ִ 㺸ġ ϶ ſ ȯ ߾ ̴.
- [չ] 2014 6 ߴ, ̶ Ǿ .
1-3. ·ο Ѵٴ <žȻ()> 缺ó, ϻ ó ؾ ϰ ݴ ź ø ־ Ѵ. ̷ ν Ͽ ο ġġ ʾƾ Ѵ.
- ϴ ۱ ϳ ϰ ־. ű̿ʹ ϴ Ƽ ݰϴ.
2. ο ߴ ڼǥ 2017 [ ڵ ι] а å İ Ἥ ߾ϴ. ̹ İ ٽ о å ϸƻ ް ˴ϴ. [չ] Բ å ξϴ.
( 0)