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å: ̷ The Future for Investors in 2005

̷

The Future for Investors in 2005

- : ð Jeremy Siegel

- ű:

- ǻ: û / 478 / 2006-03 / 18,000

 

2004~2007 ġڿ õ å ã д ñ⿴ϴ. 2011 굵 ó å 뿩 б ̿ Ƿ ¶μ (ϰ ϸ ǻ Ұ ۸ а) ߾µ å ׷ å ϳԴϴ.

 

ū 밨 2006⿡ о å 2008 ֽ 򰡾 ż Ϸ ʰ Ƽ ϴµ ߽ϴ. ּ о ߴµ, 2011 ֱ ݱ 3ۿ ʾҴ. ֽĽ ǥ 10, < > ã а ߾ û о νĵǾ Դϴ. ׷ ̹ İ ۼ ǥ ° б⿡ ϴ.

 

 

ڴ 1994 [ ð ֽ ̺ Stocks for the Long Run]( Դµ, 2014 (5E) å 2015⿡ Ⱓ, [ֽĿ ϶]̰ İ ) 鼭 Ⱓ ģ ֽ ͷ ٸ  ܺ ٴ ǹ(*) Ǿٰ մϴ. ׷ /м/ؼ ٷ å̶µ.

 

* ǹ,

1.  ֽ Ⱓ ϰ ־ ϴ°?

2. ̺ ؼ ׵ Ʈ ڱȭ Ʈ  ȭ Ͼ ΰ?

 

 

̷ ǹ ؼ ̷ ڴ  ڴ 5η ڽ ְڴٰ մϴ.

 

1. , ߱ؾ Ư¡ ֽ ż ؾ

1, ġ

2, ο Ϳ ģ

 

2. ڸ ߿伺

3, ġ °

 

3. ̷ 츮 ȭ ῡ ϱ Ʈ

4, ȭ ۷ι

5, Ʈ

 

 

1, ġ

- ڴ < growth trap>̶  ڽ ٰ ڶմϴ^^

 

ڵ Ͽ ֵϰ Ȯ ϴ ʹ ϰ . α ֽ ż, ο ߱, ϴ ϴ Ӿ 忡 ߱ ڵ鿡 ᱹ ְ Ǿ ִ. ְ ڴ Ը ҵǴ Ÿ.

-> å ݿ ͷ̶ ڴ ΰ ġ ڰ ξ ٴ Ӹ ƴ϶ ڷ Ȯνְ ִµ. ǥ ʷ ǥ IBM ޴ Ĵ ڼͷ ؼ ݴϴ.

 

̴. ̵ 𰡿 ణ ̶ , ݿ ֽ ż ̴. ̵ , ǻ, , , õ Ȥ Ư ĥ ű⿡ Ȧ . 츮 ڵ к ִ ڵ ̷ ൿ ̴. - ׷̾, [ ]

 

å [ֽĿ ϶] εݵ带 , ۿ ٸ [ ̷] ߻ , ̺ 巹 忡 ٰ ֽϴ. ڴ ͸ Ȱؼ ֿ PERַ Ʈ ڼͷ øٴ ֽϴ.

 

ͷ ֽĿ ڵ Ʈ S&P500 ε ų 3% ͷ , ͷ ֽĿ ڵ Ʈ ͷ ų ͷ 2% Ҵ. S&P500 ε PER ֽ Ʈ ͷ S&P500 ε ų 3% , PER ֽ Ʈ ͷ εݵ庸 ų 2% Ҵ.

 

ٽ ִ. ʿ ȭ ΰ? ׸ ڻ ΰ? ع ߴ. ȭ ڻ ߵ 뵿ڿ ڵ ϰ żϰ ̴. ̰ ۷ι ع(global solution)̶ ϰ ʹ.

-> ڴ , ̺θ ӹ ̷ ĥ ū Ұ ذå α 鼭 ؼ α ϴ 屹 ãҽϴ. ٸ ڼͷ Ǵ ƴ Ӹ ƴ϶ ġ ݴ Ÿ ݴϴ.

 

ֽ ڵ ñѴ. м ٸ , <ġ> <> ϳ ؾ Ѵٰ . 츮 ̰ Ȯ ̶ . ׻ ġ Ϻκ̰ <ġ> ݺ Ұϴ. - , <ũ 1992 >

 

 

2, ο Ϳ ģ

- ߱Ǵ ڼͷ ο ƴ ̶ Ͱ Ÿ ݴϴ.

 

Ȯε Ȯ θ Ѵٴ ſ ̴. ٽ ڸ, ر װ 縦 Ȯ ִ ̴.

- ͸ ( п)û , FRB ٷ ׸ 2002 8 ߾Դϴ.

 

Ȯ ٴ ׸ ߾ ڴ ǰ߿ ݴѴٰ մϴ.

ִ ¿ <Žô(New Age)> ϴ м 翬 ٸ, ̶ մϴ. ׸ ó մϴ.

 

츮 ϴ ͺ ӵȴ. ̴ źڸ ϰ ȸǷڸ . ѹ Ȯϱ ϸ װ ƹ 𸥴.

 

ڷ ѹ ȸ ι ϴ Ѵ. Ե ϴ 𸣰 ְ ֽ ִٸ, ȭϰ ڵƺ ƾ Ѵ. Ⱦ ֽ ְ ر ö ִ. ׷ , ſ ̴.

 

ֽ ִٴ ڵ ˾ ִ ٸ ¡ǥ ִ. ߿ Ģ  ϳ ֽİ ̴. ׻ ̾ Ѵ. 󸶳 ֽĿ ϰ, 󸶸 Ҿ , ݴ ְ Ѵٸ ش ֽ Ⱦƾ Ѵ.

 

ְ 󸶳 ͹Ͼ , ϰ ִٴ , ٺ(greater fool) ̷п ӵȴ. ׷ ϰ Ÿ ʴ´ٸ, żڴ 游 տ ִ ̴.

 

̵ ׵ ڽ 忡 ߻ϴ ǰ ü , ׵ ̹ ߽ ġ ִ. ׷ 쿡 ߻Ѵ. ̵ ̵ ʼ ̴.

- ιƮ Ƿ, [ո dz]

-> ŰĿ ߱ ϴ ̵

 

< ¸>

- ͷ ִ ֽ ϴ ִ ƴ϶ ȭ Ǵ ħü⿡ ִ ִ. ̵ ȿ ãƳ ߱ϰ,  ְ ְ ġ ϴ ʿ Ư о߸ ϴ 濵 õߴ. ̷ Ư¡ ִ 忡 򰡵 ̸ ڵ ֽ ߸ ϴ ̴.

 

׷ ʰ ߰; ó ̴. ϴ ϴ ̷ ߰; ߿ ְ ų ̴ ̾߸ ó̴. ħü 忡 ϴ ִ ̾߸ û ȰȲ弼 ӿ Ը ۾ ֽ ƺ ξ ̴.

- ġ, [̱ Beating the Street in 1993]

 

 

3, ְ ġ °: , ׸ ߿伺

- ͷ Ȯ ٿ ̸, ͷ ڵ鿡 ־ٴ ̸ ش.

- ϴ 10, < > Ե Ʈ ٷ Դϴ.

 

ڴ ȸ簡 繫ǥ ġ ȸٸ ȸ翡 ϴ ŷΰ? -> ؾ Ѵ. ϴ. ذ ʴ 信 ڴ մϴ.

 

ȸ縦 ְ ֵ鿡 ִٸ ֽ ̴. ̰ ָ ʴ ϴ, ׷̾ ȣߴ ̴. ȸ 濵 ٸ, ȿ κ Ƿ ̷ ڴ ȸϴ ̴.

- ( )ϱ Ȥ ִµ, ׷ϴ. ׷ ̷ ǹ Ǵؼ ( )߽ϴ.

 

· ֿ ϴ 濵 θ Ժη ɼ ִ.

 

׻ 濵 Ϻϰ ȰѴٸ, ߿ ʴ. 迡 ֿ 濵 ŷ Ϳ 濵 Ȯ ִ ٽ ҷ ۿѴ.

 

ϴ ڵ ༼ Ʈ Ӹ ƴ϶ θ ų ִٴ ˰ ̴. ְ 纸 ̷ Ȳ ༼ ߻Ѵٸ, ͷ ̴. ׸ ͷ ִ ǥ .

 

༼ ڵ ߵ߸ ϴ 뽺 Ӹ ƴ϶ ڵ ް ͷ ϰ Ͽ. ֽ ͷ Ͱ 翡 ƴ϶ ϴ ְ ؼ ̴. ֽ ڵ п ۽ο , ָ ̾߸ ¸ڰ Ǵ ̴.

-> ֽ ְ ֱ Դϴ.

 

༼ 忡 ڿ ȴ.

1. ڷ þ ֽ Ʈ ġ ϶ ش. ߰ ֽ ༼ 忡 ٽ ԵDZ ڸ ༼ ȣ(bear market protector)̶ θ.

2. ߰ Ե ֽ ̷ ͷ û ų ̴. ׷ ڴ ְ ϸ ͷ (return accelerator) Ѵ.

 

 

4, ȭ ۷ι

- Դ ߾ ϳ ִµ, װ ٷ ̴. Ÿ ̷ Ǵϰ ϴ ̶ ȴ. – Ʈ 

-> 縦 ̷ մϴ.

 

ֽ ͷ ȸ

- ֽ ͷ äǺ ٴ ǿ ݹϴ ̴. ׷ ֽ ̵ ֽڸ . ֽ ֽ ϴ Ⱓ ޷ ִ.

 

 

5, Ʈ

- ε ڸ ׷̵ Ʈ մϴ. DOW Ǵ S&P500 ߿ PER Ȥ 10 ߷ DOW 10 Ǵ S&P 10 Ʈ ϸ, ܼϰ DOW Ǵ S&P500 ε ͷ Ȯ ˴ϴ. ̸ Ȱؼ ϰ ø Ʈ մϴ. 1957~2003 Ⱓ ְ Ʈ ϴ ũ ؼ̿ ͷ(ͷ: 26.6% / S&P500: 11.2%) ( Ұ)ּ̾ Ȯ ֽϴ.

 

ڴ л Ʈ ϴ մϴ. (츮 ÿ ֽ ٴ Ͱ )ؿ ֽڿ ŷ ϴ ϴ.

 

 

̷ ϱ ֽ ڸ ϼ. ġڹ^^

- ڴ ϳ . ϰ ŷ ϴ ڵ鿡 Ŀٶ ȿ ־. ׷ ̷ ڵ鿡Ե .

 

ġڸ õ 35 װ  Ʈ嵵 ߴ. ΰ Ư ư ϴ ϴ.

- (1985)

 

 

:

 

1. å ϰ ( å ) ǹ̸ οϴ ֽ ڴ , ܺ ͷ ٴ () Ȯ ־ٴ ֽϴ. Ư 1929 9 23 Ȳ ְ ϱ DOW ְ 25⸸ ٽ 1954 11 24, ߴٸ 1929 1,000޷ 4,400޷ Ǿٴ, 6% ̻ ´ٰ ϴ κԴϴ.

 

̹ 7⸸ ° 鼭 ˰ ڰ Ÿ ϸ鼭 ñδ ̷ ħ ְ ִٴ ̴ϴ. ޸ [The Future for Investors] ƴ . κ ͸ ٰ ϴ å 鼭 ( ׷)ٷ ڽ ϳ ݰ ⿬½ ̼Ҹ ҽϴ.

 

2. ̹ ޿ å ؼ İ 3 ϴ. İ ۼ ̰ ε ޷ ˴ϴ. ֽ ʰ ܸϴ ְ ϰ ߴµ, õϰ ֽϴ.

 




ƮƮ ũα (0) ֱֱ(1)
:
|

 Ѹ ( 1)

  1. ݰ
    ݰ | 18.07/30 14:46
    |
    ׻ ֽϴ. Value investing̶ å 絶ϰ ֽϴ. ϸ ϴ. մϴ
    ۾
    • | 18.07/30 17:54
      ~ ó å б Դϴ^^

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