Ҿ ֽ ڹ
Beyond the Zulu Principle in 1996 & 2011
- : Jim Slater
- ű:
- ǻ: ũ / 2017-08 / 295 / \\19,000
۳ İ , , [ٷ ֽڹ The Zulu Principle] ̶ ֽϴ. ̱ ִ 5 ڹ Ҵٸ å ڰ ٰ ߴ, κи å ϴ.
PEG(Price Earnings to Growth) ϸ , ġ ؼ ڹ ̸ ڿ ؼ ̿ ι å , Ͷ մϴ. å PEG شϴ ϰ Կ ־ մϴ.
ִ Դ ƴ å д ϰ ִ ־ Ȱ Ͽ ϴ. å ̿ ¼ ڷμ ٷ ִ Ĵ ̳ 弼 óϴ Ⱑ Դ ū Ǿٰ մϴ.
ڰ ۿ 5 ڹ ϴ.
1. investment tosmall dynamic growth companies
2. Ͼ turnarounds& cyclicals
3. ֽ shells
4. ڻ Ȳ ֽ – ġ asset situations
5. ǥ leading stocks
å ٷ ִ ڿ [ٷ ֽڹ] а ߴ ٿ űϴ. ڹ Կ ־ ٽ ִٰ ִµ, ̿ ߵ Ͽ, å ذ κ Դϴ.
<<<1.
ðѾ ϴ ֽĿ ϶ ̴ϴ. ̸ ؼ ġ Ȱ PEG(PriceEarnings to Growth ratio: ְ) ̿մϴ.
PEG = PER / EPS
Ex) PER 10 / EPS 20%̸.. PEG 10 /20 = 0.5 -> ^^
-> ڴ ü 15% ̻ PEG 0.75 , ٶϰԴ 0.66 ֽ ã ִٰ մϴ.
ŷ¿ ڴ 츮 ִ Դϴ.
- ְ ϴ ⺻ ̶ ؾ Ѵ. ù° , ° ֽĽ οϴ PER ̴.
–> ֿ οϴ PER 缺 մϴ.
ڹ ڰ ù ° Ŵ ڿ ־ ణ ִٴ ϰ ˴ϴ. PEG ߿ Ͱ ǻ ġ Ѵٰ ߴµ, ϴ ٴ Դϴ. Ѵٰ ϴ Ȯ Ƿ 뿡 ־ PEG ̿ ڹ ؼ ǹ ˴ϴ. ݸ鿡 ̷ ߰ؼ ִٸ ϴ <> Ȯϰ.>>>
ڴ Ǵ PEG ֽı ߱ , ߿ 谡ų ִ ߰ڰ մϴ. Դϴ. < ڵ >̶ Ī ҷȴٴ Դϴ. ״ ڿ ־ ġ մϴ.
ִ PEG̶ ̵ ַ ߰ߵǴ ִٰ մϴ. , , コɾ, ̵, , ַ, ܽľ, ռҸ .. 1996 å̶ Ѵٸ 20 ȭ ְ. ȣϴ , Ư̳ 귣 ִ , ڸ ˴ϴ.
PEG ִ PER 20 ѱ ʾƾ մϴ. PER ϱ ư ȸϿ , ս ũ ϰ PER ֽ ϶ մϴ.
谡ų ִ 7
1. 帧 – ٴ 帧 þ մϴ.
ϰ 鼭 ִ帧 ִ ξ ʰϴ ֺ Ȯ ڴ ٰ մϴ. 帧 ͺ ϱ ξ ư, Ϻ ֵ ̾ â ȸ(нȸ) ȣ DZ Դϴ.
2. ְ – Ʈ ϶ մϴ. ϰ ִ ͷ ռ ϶ մϴ. ̿ ,
Ʈм鿡 ȸ̾. ֱ Ʈ ڵ ʼ̸, Ư 12 ְ ſ ߿ ڱ̶ ϰ Ǿ.
̷ ǰ߿ ´, ,
ֽ . ϶. ŵض. ְ ʴ ֽ .
3. 濵 ɷ – 濵 ɷ ߿ϴٴ ε, 忡 濵 ϴ ϴµ, Ǿϴ.
1) ȸ – 亯 µ/ɷ
2) Ȯ – Ǽ ִ ġ θ ƴ
3) ̻ȸ Ȯ – ġ ȸ ڰ ԵǾ ̳ʽ.
- ̻ ֽ żѴٸ ſ ż ȣ.
4) ְ濵 ܺ Ȱ Ȯ – 濵ڴ
5) ٽ ӿ Ÿ Ȯ – ȣȭο ϰų ȸ Ȱ
6) ġ – ġ Ű ϸ ɷ
4. – ش 庮 , õ ϰ ̿ մϴ.
1) ְ 귣
2) Ư̳ ۱
3)
4)
5) ƴ忡 Ȯ
5. 繫 – ä 50% , 帧 ϰ ä ӵ ϶ϰ ִٸ ִٰ մϴ. ä ߿ ۿ º, , ں, 纸 캸ڰ մϴ.
6. ִ – ϴ ְ PEG ϹǷ մϴ. ִ PER 20 ѱ ʴ ڴ ƾ Ѵٰ մϴ. PER ϱ ư ŷ , ְ ϶ ս ũ ε. PER ֽ ϶ ݺ˴ϴ. ʴ ڸ ϴ ƴմϴ^^
7. ðѾ / ŷ ͷ / ڻ / PSR
ڴ ֿ ʼֿ Դٰ մϴ. ͷ ֱ ε.
1) ̷ ֽ м Ǿ ְ, ݿ ż ִ.
2) ̷ ֽ ֺ ξ . 50Ⱓ ʼִ 庸 8 ̻ ߴ.
̷ մϴ. 40 ֵ 庸 4% ߴ.
-> ϴ. ٷ ռ о, Ű ش [ֽ PER Ȱ] <<ġִ ų 3~4% ̷ ռ. αִ ̷ 忡 .>>鼭 ġְ ͷ ִٴ ˾ҽϴ. ٸ ġ ߿ ָ Ʈ Ѵٸ 庸 8%(4%+4%) ͷ ִٰ ǰ^^
ϴ ϴ , ż± Ȯϸ, ̷ 濵 Ȯ Ȥ Ҿ ֱ Դϴ.
ڻ ż , ڻָ ϸ 밳 żȣ Ƶ鿩 մϴ. ڻ Ȯ ָ ϴٴ ǹϱ Դϴ. ֽ ν, ִ ȿ մϴ.
ĵ ǼŰ ƮŲ PSR Ư, Ǵܿ ־ ߿ ҷ ˷ ֽϴ. ڴ ʼ 䱸 ʿ , ߰ ŷ ϴ ʽ մϴ.
, ʹ, ۿ , ̿ <ٽƮ> ؼ ŵϴ. ģ 13, <߿䵵 з> ݱ ߴ ٽ /ؼ ŵϴ. ڶٰ ߴ 18, <> ѹ ؼ ݴϴ.
A. ʼ
1. PEG
2. 20 PER
3. 帧
4. ä Ȥ ܰ
5. ְ
6.
7. ̻ ȸ ֽ Ÿ – 濵 ڻ ż ְ ż
B. ſ ٶ
1. ް ϴ ִ
2. ̻ ȸ ֽ ż
3. ðѾ – ðѾ 0.3 Ŀ(450)~2.5 Ŀ(3,750)
4. ͷ
C. ʽ
1. ְ(PSR)
2. ο – 濵 ü, ǰ
3. ְߺ(PRR)
4. ڻ Ȳ – ش ä 쿣 ߿
ڴ Ĵ ؿ ؼ ڽ ݴϴ. ڽ ڸ Ѵٰ Ͽ ϴ ڿʹ Ÿ ־ Դϴ. , ڱݾ Ʈ ϰ ֽϴ.
- 5 Ŀ(0.75) ϶ 10~12
- 50 Ŀ(7.5) ϶ 15
- 100 Ŀ(15) 20
ð 鼭 ݾ ڱⰡ ˰ ִٰ ϴ ڱⰡ ϴ 濵 ϴ ùٸ ڹ̶ Ȯϰ Ǿ. ƴ Ư ŷ ڸ а лν ڽ ũ ִٰ ϴ Ǽ. – ̳ʵ ν(1934 ο )
ŵ ؼ 丮 ڽ ǰ߰ Բ 1987 ũ ŵ Ұմϴ. ˰ ִ ŵ ϴ. ,
1. ʴ
2. ⺻ Ǻ ġ ִ ,
3. ξ ǿ ڱ ʿ
༼忡 óϴ ߿ űϴ.
- ڱθ ϶ –
- ΰ ü ֽ żؼ ϶
- Ͽϰ ֽĺ Ƽ ̷ ϰ ִٸ, ִ ر ٿ Ѵ. ٽ Ÿ 찡 Ƿ, ڻ ڱ 50% ٿ ȴ.
ڴ ֽڿ ͷ ø ּ , ϵ, ϴ ϴ ̴ϴ. ٸ ̵ αְ Ǿ 翬 PER ̸ Ϲ ġڰ ϱ Ⱑ ʿմϴ. ̴ ż ε . ڴ ̵ ֿ ϶ մϴ. <Z> ϴ Ⱑ ư ε ڱ ʿ ְ , ۷ űϴ.
κ ڿ ָ ù ° ( ) ⸦ Ѵ. ִ ū Ȱִ ̴. ɼ ̸, ٸ ֽ ְ, Ҿ ̴.
ؾ 3̻ ٸ ؾ ϴ մϴ. ȸ縦 ߱ ֱ⸦ Բ ϴ ^^ ϰ ǰ ñ 帳ϴ.
Ȯ ֽϴٸ, ƴٴ Ͽϴ. װ ᱹ Ȯ ٴ ְڳ^^ ǥ ʴ дٸ û ʴ , ڴ ŭ ڰ ǰ. ִٸ õϰ ͽϴٸ...... Դ ġڰ ︮ ̶ ɴϴ.
ġڶ ڹ ϴ ƴ϶ Ѵٴ ϴٸ ġ θ鼭 强 ִ ã ؾѴٰ մϴ. ̷ å 鼭 ڽſ ڱ ָ鼭.. մϴ^^
İ , å б ڱ ϴ. մϴ.
ݰԵ ſ .
մϴ ^^