2025 Ƿ ̵
- :
- ǻ: ѽ̵ / 2017-04 / 489 / \\23,000
η ִ. ƹ͵ ڽ ƹ͵ ٴ .
– 극̽
2014 /Ⱓ [չ, Boombustology in 2011] ο ۷ν ⺻ ̷ ϴ Ƿϴ 忡 극̽ մϴ.
å а İ 鼭 ֽڿ ־ Bottom-Up ڹ ϴ ġڹ մϴ. Top-Down ڿ ϴ ̳ å ƿ Ѵٱ ٴ ϸ ϰ մϴ. ȸ ϰ ִ ī信 ̺Ʈ å ҰϿ , ȣ û/÷ å Top-Down å ־ ã ҽϴ.
п ȸ Ͽ ߴ ſ ʾ Ž/̽ ̶ ϸ μ ǿܷ å о. İ Top-Down ٷ Ȯ Ʒ ̳ Ǿϴ. ( Ҹ ߴ ñϽ ˶̳ ڿ Ἥ ÷ȴ İ ֽϴ)
2010, Ƽ ġ [ؽƮ ƽþ Stephen Roach on the Next Asia in 2010]
2011, [Top-Down Investing from the Top Down in 2009]
2013, [ ްƮ忡 ָ϶ Street Smarts in 2013]
2014, [չ, Boombustology in 2011]
Ȳ ֽϴٸ ڿ ־ /κ 캸 ϴ. δ мϴ ͺ ϹǷ о ط ϰ 캻ٴ ü ҼԴϴ.
·/ ٷ å̳ , Ư, ų ȸ ġͳ ҿ / Ϻη ã о ϴ. ͺٴ Գ ƴ ٴ ο ΰ ֱ ̰.
å ǻ ġ åԴϴ. ڴ 2025 뷫 10ⷡ / Ʈ ȭ ϰ ̿ / մϴ. ѱ ̷ ̷ ٵ ϸ鼭 ռ ִ Ϻ Ҿ 20 캸鼭 츮 ̷ ϴ ٶ մϴ.
̸鼭 ֽڷ ȹϰ ִ μ å 鼭, ϱ Ž ϸ鼭 - ִ- ڰ ϴ Ͽ ϴ.
< > ڴ å /ؼ ݴϴ. ó ; а İ ° 鼭 ڰ ϰ ; 뷫̳ ˰ Ǿϴ. ڸ å Ȥ п å ü ִ ģ ִ ڸ ڶ ϴµ, å ڰ ϴ.
鿡 Ҹ Ұ İ ߿ 鼭 ó å ÿ ̷ ߾, ϴ ȸϴµ ϳ̰ ̷ ϴ å ظ ̶ ϱ ٸ ϳԴϴ.
2008 ȭ ̱ · Ϲ ڴ ްװ α ҷ 䰨ҿ ٺ ִٰ մϴ. Ȥ ̳ʽ ݸ Ȳ ȸ̸ ̰ ְ Ȳ ̱ ݸ λ Ͽ 10 Ⱓ ΰ ϸ ݸ ݸ ô밡 ̶ մϴ. ̷ Ͽ α ҿ ƽþ α ο ν ƽþƿ 4 ϴ / / մϴ.
å ũ ŷκ 1, ư ϴ 2η մϴ. 1ο α ҿ ħü ݸ ô밡 Ȳ 캾ϴ. 2ο ȭDZ⸸ ϴ ȭ ɿ Ʈ ȭǴ ȣǿ Ȳ ȭ ӵ Ÿ ؾ 4 Ư ѱ ϸ鼭 ̷ Ʈ մϴ.
ô밡 ӵǴ , ڴ 1. ä δ 2. ȭ 켱 3. ż ȣǸ ϸ鼭 ̷ ̾ٴ ǥϱ մϴ.
-> ̿ å ó, 1929 Ȳ ݸ ڱ Ȯ뿡 ƴ϶ 2 Ư Ծٴ ٴ մϴ.
/̳ʽ ݸ Ȯ å 鼭 ⸦ ȰȭϷ Ͽ ε ڱ ݸ ұϰ ڱ ä, ڻ꿡 ϴ 뿡 ߴٰ մϴ. 츮 ȭ ƴϱ ̷ å ü ƴ϶ ʸ å̶ մϴ.
-> ӵ巹 ڽ ö, < = + ɸ>ε, Ȳ ε ü ɸ Ƴ ϴ ʿ ϴ.
ڴ 츮 Ͽ Ͻ ȥ 4 ڸ ݴϴ. 忡 ʴ , - ܵΰ ;- űϴ.
ó ȭġ ǰ ڰ鵵 ؿ ڸ ʿ䰡 ִ. 1,100 ȯ 4 ٽ ̱ ̳ ߱ ̵ ֽ ٰ غ. ų 20% ̻ Ÿ ־ ְ ¼ ȴ. ְ ڸ ص ÿ ֽ ŵ ٽ ε ȯ ༼ ȭ ȯؼ 2 ȿ ִ. ȯ ذῡ DZ ȸ ؿ ڸ ؾ Ѵ.
-> ī信 ؼ ؿ ֽ Ѵٴ ȴٴ ̱ ؼ ġо ȭ ߴ μ, и ִ Դϴ. Ƿθ δٸ ȭڻ Ȯϰ 4 ռ Ѵٴ ȿ ڹ̶ մϴ.
Դ ߴ, 4 ظ մϴ. 4 IT ִ Ȥ ְ ִ ٺ ȭ մϴ.
4 ͳ 3 ٽ ´ٰ մϴ.
1. : ְ ش.
2. ΰ: ǻ н ΰŰ Ǵϰ нϸ, ְ ϴ 4 ٽ ̴.
3. Ŭ ǻ: Ӿ ΰ Ȱ ֵ ܺο â ָ ذϴ Ŭ̴.
4 ΰɰ ο ź 4 ȭ ̶ մϴ. ο , ǰ , 繰ͳ ̴ ̰ ִ 1. ݵü 4 ⺻ ϴ 2. Դϴ. ڴ ̿ܿ 츮 ϰ ִ, , ڵ, ö, ȭ ̷ ϰ ֽϴ.
< ô뿡 ô> ٿµ, ̴ ϴ ̱ մϴ. ݸ ô ƴ϶ ֽڸ Ѵٴ ̰ ϰ Ѵٸ / ܺ ͷ Ȱشٴ ֽϴ. ̷ ڼ Ѵٸ ̷ ĥ Ȱ ִٸ, 鿡 ϰ ֽϴ.
·!!! ڰ ϴ Ȳ 10 Ʈ ϶ մϴ.
–> 100% ֽڸ ϴ μ Ʈ^^
60%: ε +
30%: ߱ 1 + 4 1 + 췮
10%:
İ ۷ å а ; ڰ ̾ε, ˰ ȸ մϴ.
ڸ ó ˰ 2008Դϴ. 2 ؼ ϰ 4 ϰ ־µ, 2008 9 29Ϻ < ϱ> ڹ ٷ Į ϱ ϸ鼭Դϴ. ſ ġ̾ ʾ ÷ȴµ, ֿ ö ñϸ û ٷȴ ѷϰ ֽϴ. 2009 5 11 30ȸ ϰ б ϴ. ʹ ̶ ù ȸ ũ߰ ݵ ó ϰ ֽϴ.
-> ߿ [ ϱ] å ִ, Դϴ.
Į 縦 2007 ̱ ñ ɸ ־̾ 忡 ڸ ϴ Ⱑ Ͽ ̴ϴ. ֽ Ƽ⸸ ϴ Դ ô Ǵ ̶ Ư £ ֽϴ.
å ϳ ġ پ м Ź ظ / ־ ô ϴ. ٸ ڰ Ʈ ֵ μ ذ ٸ ٴ å Դ ƽ κԴϴ.
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