ֽĿ ϶
Stock for the Long Run 5Edition in 2014
- : ð Jeremy J. Siegel
- ű: ̰
- ǻ: ̷̵ / 2015-05 / 519 / \\27,000
1994 ù Ⱓ å ŵؼ ̹ 5° Խϴ. [ ð ֽڹ̺] оµ, 2013 ֿ ڷḦ ìܼ ̹ / , 75 , Ǹ ǥϰ ͽϴ.
å 2005 Ⱓ ٸ [ ̷: The Future for Investors] ڸ Ͽ , ֽĸŭ ͷ ִ ڻǰ Ƿ ֽĿ ϰ ֽϴ. û ڷḦ м ڷ ʸ ϸ鼭 ̷ Ÿ մϴ.
å д ϵ ݺϸ鼭 ϴ, å <ֽ ϴ ְ >̶ ̴ϴ. ֽ Ⱓ ϸ ᱹ ں ͷ Ȱ ״ մϴ.
/Ģ̶ /ݿ ٲ ʽϴ. ̹ ǿ ڴ 2008 ݿ ռ ߴ ֽ ּ ȿ ˾ƺڰ մϴ. , ұϰ, 1929 Ȳ̳ 1987 10 α ŵ ߱ ر ġ鼭 2008 ִ ݵ ּ ڹ Ȯ ֽϴ.
å 5, 24 ڼ ֽĿ ؾ ϴ մϴ.
1 ֿ ǰ, ֽ, ä, , ȭ 210(1802~2012) ڼ ϴ ǥ ϳ ڻν ֽ ݴϴ.
2,3 2008 -- 4 ΰ þ ȸ 캾ϴ.
5~8, ڻ ü ͷ - ͷ ɰϱ մϴ.
9~13 , ڼͿ ġ Ʈ ͺ, ġ õ ϸ鼭 Ʈ ν ü лڿ л ʿ伺 մϴ.
14~17, Ǹ鼭 ٲ ȭå, ÷̼, ȯ, , ȯ ְ ġ ϴ.
18, ֽİ ɼ ؾ Ѵٴ, οϸ鼭 ETF, , ɼǿ μ мմϴ.
19~21忡 庯 м, 1 ȿ ǥǴ ͷ ȿ Ķ ̻ мմϴ.
22, ϰ ִ ൿ繫п ൿ繫 м ֽ ܱ մϴ.
23, Ϲ ֽ ݵ ͷ ϸ鼭 ֽĿ ִ ֽڹ εݵ带 ϸ鼭 Ϲ εڹ ˷ ðѾװ εݵ庸 Ưȭ ݴа εݵ Ұմϴ.
24 п Ϲε ֽڿ ϱ < ħ> 6 մϴ. å <ֽ ϴ ְ >̶ ֽ ̿ մϴ.
õǴ ο å д ̿ ظ ϴµ Ǿϴ. å 鼭 ģ Ư ÿ ؼ Ǵ űϴ.
< >.. ϸ ߵ ڵ ڷ , ְ ¿ ڵ .
≮ νŰ Ҿ >.. Ⱓ Ǿ ڻ ϸ ڿ ڵ鸸 ƴ϶, ¼ Ϸ Ϲ ڵ ۵ ⸦ δ.
<ȭ ڵ ǰ ̸ ڵ Ű ڻ ΰ?>.. ﱹ 꼺 ϰ , ̵ ǰ ϰ ڵ ڻ Ƿ ӵ ̴. 巡 ֽ ͷ(6~7%) ̴.
< ֽ äǺ >.. 210 Ⱓ ͷ м , Ⱓ 17 ̸̻ ֽ äǰ ͷ ̳ʽ ٴ ſ ߿ϴ. 鿡 ֽ äǺ , ŷ 鿡 ֽ л Ʈ Ȯ ߴ.
< ġ õ: Ͱ >.. ڵ Ŀ ߿ϴٴ ڸϴ. ÷̼, , ְ ڿ ġ Ӹ ƴ϶, ÷̼, , ְ Ͽ ڿ ġ ȭѴ. - ιƮ ƳƮ(2003)
<ְ >.. Ǻм ֽ ϴ Ϲ Ģ ؼ ȴ. ְ ƴ϶, ȴ. – [Ǻм]
<ͷ>.. 迡 纸, ֽĽ ȸ翡 Ǵ 1 ֿ Ǵ 1 ġ ִٰ Ȯϰ ǴϿ. ֽڴ ͷ° 䱸ؾ Ѵ. – [Ǻм]
<PBR>.. ֽ ų Ĵ , ڻ갡ġ ̶ Ⱦ ϰ ǰϴ ̴. ڶ ֽ ù°, ϴ ľؾ ϰ, °, ڻ Ǵ ˾ƾ Ѵ. – [Ǻм]
–> ο ڴ ǰ ٿϴ. <δ ȸ ġ ̹Ƿ, ڻ갡ġδ ȸ ̷ ġ ϱⰡ ̴.>
<ݸ, ÷̼>.. ݸ ϸ ֽ 帧 Ѵ. ֽ ǹڻ꿡 Ϳ û̴. ÷̼ǿ ؼ Թ ϸ, ݵ Ѵ. ϸ ̷ 帧 Ѵ. , ÷̼ Թ ġ Ȱٸ, ݸ ϴ ֽ ̷ 帧 ʴ´. ݸ ̷ 帧 ǹǷ, ְ ÷̼ŭ Ѵ(Ͱ 絵 ). ̷л ֽ ÷̼ ϴ ̻ ̴.
<ȯ ֽ>.. ֽĽ ϰ ħü ֱ⸦ ٶ Ұϱ ó ͼ ã Ϸ Ѵ. – ġ
ڿ ־ Ȱ ǰ ״ ϴ ̴. ̷ ϸ ± ֽ ΰ żؼ ħü ΰ ŵϰ ȴ. ڵ ִ Ȯϴ. ȯ ؼ ̱ õ Ȯ Ѵٴ ̴.
<: Ǿ, PMI, PPI, CPI, PCE ).. Ϳ ϰ ϴ ¥, ̷ Ÿϴ ܱ 븮 ڵ鿡Գ ϴ. κ ڴ ¦ ϸ鼭 ϴ .
<ETF ǰ>.. Ͱ ġ ڰ ǰ ݴ, ǰ ų ظ ƴٴ Ȯ Ŵ . ǰ ֽĽ ־ лڵ ־ ְ ־ٰ ϴ´.
< м >.. Ʈ м ̳ ϸ鼭 ϴ ȸǷڵ . ƮƮ дٴ Ǹε Ʈ м ġ ִ. – [Ǻм]
غ ΰ ԵǴ ִ ƴϴ. ŷڼ ٸ Ͽ ൿ ̰, ٷ ൿ ȴ. Ʈ м м ƴ Ұ ̾ ִٰ Ѵ. – [Ǻм]
<ൿ繫>.. ȸ ü ڱ ̸ ϸ鼭, ģ Ѵ. ڸ Ѵ´. ߴ ڱ ش 븧 Ͽ 忡 λ Ǵ. ڸ . ̵ ġ ã , õõ ãư. – [ ̸ ]
ɸ ڽ ɰϰ Ѵ. ְ ſ ̰, ְ ٴ ſ ϱ ̴. – [Ǻм]
< ħ>
1. ϶. 2 ֽ ͷ 6~7%, PER 15.
2. δ ֽ ͷ ä ͷٵ ξ ̴. ֽ äǰ ÷̼ǵ Ѵ. ֽ Ѵ.
3. εݵ ƾ Ѵ.
4. ֽ Ʈ 1/3 ֽĿ ϶. ֽ ¿ ͷ .
5. ݱ ġִ ֺ ͷ Ҵ. ġ εݵ峪 ݴа εݵ忡 Ͽ ġ .
6. ۾ ʵ Ʈ Ģ Ȯϰ ϶. 忡 ҾȰ ڸ ɾ å 1(210Ⱓ ͷ Ʈ) ٽ о.
ڿ õ å ں/ֽĽ ߴϿ ִ , Ư ̱ ڰ å ϴ. ŭ 츮 ٸ ʺм å ϴµ ް մϴ. å Ȱ , [ ġ] , <ı> ذְ ֽϴ.
츮 忡 ϱ å ؼϸ鼭 / 츮 Ȳ/ Ÿ Ȯϰ ̸ 츮 ֽĽ忡 , ܼ ̻ û ڼ ִ ڹ ֱ մϴ. å 17 <ı> ðֱ ڸε ϰ ִ å ġ 谡־ϴ.
ֽĿ ϰ ֽϴ. ֽĿ ݰ ں(ü) Ƿ ھտ ģ, 츮 Ȱ å ϰ ֽϴ. ̷ ģ ֱ 2008 ̱ Դϴ. ڻ 40% ̻ پ Ͽµ, ߳ ⸦ ־ ð ٸ å, [ ̷] ۱Դϴ. Ȳ 1929 ֽ ־ 25 1954 ٿ ؿ , ڻ 3.4谡 Ҿ ־µ, ̴ 6% ͷ Ⱓ äǼͷ 2迴. ֽ ڰ ּ ڹ̶ Ͱ ߿伺 å ڰ ־ 2008 ̰ܳ ֵ ־ϴ.
å å , [ ð ֽڹ̺] , <̺>̶ Ī پ ֽڸ ؾ 缺/ ֽϴ. 鿡 ġ κ [ ̷] Բ å ֽڸ ϸ鼭 Ǵ ؾ Ѵٴ ϸ鼭 ֽڿ η/ǽ ִ ̵鿡 ˴ϴ.
: ּ ڹ ֽεݵ带 õϴ ڴ PER, PBR, ͷ ڸ ܼ εں ͷ ִٴ 뼺 ݴϴ. å [ ֽ ϶] ڴ ̱ ٸ鼭 ش εݵ忡 ۰ [ ] ֽڰ ͷ ִٸ <ε> ٰ, ȿ尡 ̺ 巹 ߰뿡 츮 ڸ ϴ < > Ƶ鿴ϴ.
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