Ȳ ġڵ ٽ ϱ?
ֱ ̱ Ʈ Ʋ Ǯ(Motley Fool) ̱ ְ Ǿ Ƿ ڹ ϴ ġڵ ̼ǿ ַϸ Ǵ ߴ.
̱ ֽĽ VIX 22.32 2008 ġ ȸϰ , ֳθƮ մ ִ. ̷ Ȳ ġڵ µ ؾ ұ? Ʋ Ǯ Ȳ Ǿٰ , ó ̼ǿ ϰ, ̿ ϶ ߴ.
Ʋ Ǯ(www.fool.com) Ұ ֿ ̴.
Ģ ϱ
۷ι 14 ȭ ־. 忡 κ , ڵ Ž ִ Ÿ. ̰ VIX ѵ ͵ ƴϰ, ̱ ѵ ƴϴ. Ģ ڶ ڸ ø ⺸ٴ ؾ ñ̴.
ڵ ֽ , ڿ پ ְ Ž þ ִٴ Ѵ. 2008 10 Ÿ Į ߴ. ż Ģ ִ: ٸ Ž彺 ηض, ٸ η Ž彺.
ǥ ʴ. ߾ װ ǥ ڷῡ , S&P500 1 ɼǰ 12 ɼ 1999 ̷ ġε, Ư ڵ ؾ ֳθƮ ġ ġ ̶ ϰ ִٴ ǹѴ.
ֳθƮ 2010 2011 S&P 20% ϰ ִµ, ̴ 1994 ̷ ̴. ̷ ġ 캸 Ȯ. 2010 ִͷ 30.3%, ڴ 27.3%, Ƹ 50%, EMC 22.1%, ̾ 877.3%, Ƹ 32.6%, ũ 15.6% ϰ ִ.
̷ ġ Һڽɸ Ǿ ̴. ٰ Ű ߴ. 츮 ȸ ϴٰ Ȯϱ ִ.
S&P500 PER 16.3 ո , ŷ ִ CAPE ʴ. ϴ ιƮ CAPE 20 ϸ ̴ պ 20% ġ̴.(CAPE ְ 10Ⱓ ÷̼ǰ Ͽ Ѵ.)
ٸ ϸ, ̱ô Ǿ ִ.
ż 忡 2
Ǿ ִٸ, ڵ 2 ִ:
ù°, ε ڶ, ̱忡 ؾ Ѵ.
°, ֽĿ ϴ ȣѴٸ ϰ ִ ֽ ְ ְ( ȮǾ ִٸ ڴ) 쿡 ϶.
ϸ, ̼ ̴. ֳϸ ̼ ̴. 2 ʴ´ٸ – 2 ̼ǿ ϰ ִ – Ƶ (Ȥ ʿ) ں սǷ 迡 Ǿ ִٴ .