- - File : HNI_to_itooza.xls
̰ е ֽ ġ ؼ ̷ Ͻó κ 찡 ϴ. ƴ й ( Ǵٴ ƴմϴ.) ֽ APV (Adjusted Present Value) ؼ մϴ. Wall Street ̿ 뵿 WACC method academy APV ں ִ ̻ ˷ װ Ұ 帮 մϴ.
ȸ ġ DCF (Discounted Cashflow) ؼ ϴ. ȸ ְ Ǿ P/E ȸ , ȸ Ĵ DCF ϸ ذ˴ϴ.
ű ؼ մϴ.
ֽ ġ Դϱ?
ֽ ġ ̷ 簡Դϴ.
ٸ, ̷ ų 0 ȸ ġ 0̳? ̷δ ϴ. ڻ ų ̰, ᱹ ð Ŀ ȸ翡 ִ ƹ ͵ .
, ̱ ں忡 Ͼ ʽϴ. ȸ PBR < 1̶ ε, ٷ PEF ȸ μؼ û ϴ. ڻ ġ ϴ ȸ簡 ҿ ֽϱ? ̰͵ ᱹ ں ȿ ġϴ ϳ Դϴ.
Ʒ ־ Դϴ. ⼭ ڻ̶ ϴ õ ڻ մϴ. , ڻ, ε̳, Ƶ (KT&G ִ ) ̵ ؾ մϴ. ڻ̶ ״ ϴ ڻ, ε, AR, AP, inventory մϴ. Ʒ κ óϴ ٽ մϴ.
̷ discounted cashflow(free cashflow: accounting cashflow Ʋ) ڻ갡ġ ū ȸ縸 ϱ .
ٸ, ũ ϴ.
1. free cashflow̰
2. discount rateΰ
FCF (Free Cashflow)
= EBIT ==> ٰ ϰ, ں ٰ ϰ, մϴ. ڼ ߿
- Tax (tax rate * EBIT) ==> ȸ EBIT ˴ϴ.
+ Depreciation ==> ȸ ٽ ϴ.
- CapEx ==> ̷ ڱݾ Capex ˴ϴ.
- change in NWC (net working capital) ==> ʿ WC ŭ ڱ ̴ ȿ ŸǷ ݴϴ.
, ٽ λ ڷ , δ ʴ ְ, ݾ شٴ ֽϴ.
PE (Ebit - Ebit * tax rate ) capex ʱ ںڰ ʿ ȸ PE åǴ Դϴ. ͵ ̷ Դ ϸ (Capex ū ) Ⱦ .
⼭ 츮 Ŀ ȸ capital structure ( ) ̷ cashflow ˾Ҵٰ ϴ մϴ.
°, ü η Ͽ ϴ°.
CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model) ϴ. ̿ ǵ , ó ٰŸ ϴ.
, η
Ia = If + BetaA * (Im - If) ϴ.
⼭ If risk free market interest rate ̱ 10 ä ϴ.
Im : S&P 500 ϴ.
BetaA unlevered beta ؼ ȸ簡 ϳ ٰ Ѵٸ ֽ ڴĸ Ÿ ̸ ϱ ؼ levered beta, equity bond 尡 ʿѵ, ̴ bloomberg ֽϴ.
CAPM ͳݿ ã ø, ݹ ڼ ƽ Դϴٸ, ϴ ٽ
1) ð ġ: If ä ͷ , ٸ ڻ鵵 ͷ 䱸մϴ.
2) risk premium: ٸ ڻ äǺ risk ֱ ؼ premium ־ մϴ. ٸ premium ϴ°?
̴ Ǿϴٸ, ̴ ʿ ã , premium ۾, ݴ ʿ , ʿ ٸ, ݴ premium Ŀϴ.
ͷ ä ͷ 찡 ϴ. Ⱑ , ʿ Ƿ, ̷ ڵ premium Ȥ negative premium մϴ.
ݴ ΰ IT ָ ϸ, Ⱑ ư , ֽĵ ϴ. Ⱑ , ʿϰ ǰ, ̶ ֽĵ ʿ ϴ. ̷ premium ũ 䱸ϰ ˴ϴ.
CAPM ̷ ġڳ Ⱦϴ efficient market theory ٰ ̹Ƿ efficient market theory ϵ ü , ƴմϴ. Ư ̼ Ҿ ( effieicnt market theory ߿ ) ̷е ϴ.
츮 ȸ簡 ϳ ٰ , ̷ Free cashflow η ˾ҽϴ.
ڸ ̿ ϸ (ֽ ƴմϴ.) ġ ˰ ˴ϴ.
ٰ ϰ, discount rate ܼ ֽĿ discount rate ƴ϶, business ü ؼ Ͽ ̷ ٰŴ ϴ.
, capital structure ȸ ġ տ ġ ʴ´ٴ MM(ƴ з) ̷ ֽϴ. ͳݿ ã ø, ڼ ֽϴ.
°, ü ٲ , capital structure equity, bond ͷ ϴ. ȸ簡 , ֽĿ ( äǿ ) ͷ öϴ. ROE ö, Ȯ ϴ. ̷ ں ϴ discount rate ( ͷ) , ʴ business ü η ˴ϴ.
ȸ ü ˾ҽϴ. operationü ġ ˾ҽϴ.
finance κ ġ ϴ ϴ.
ù ° tax shield ֽϴ.
ڴ ó DZ ̶ ο () ֵ鿡 ƿɴϴ. tax shield ũ interest * tax rate Դϴ. ̷ ũ ں ( Ȱ ) 谡 ֱ ں ũⰡ ϴ.
°, financial distree Ѵٸ, ̰ ؾ մϴ. leverage ʹ ũ Ǿ , ȸ ǰ ϰ. GM̳ IMF ν ʽÿ. durable goods (ڵ Ⱓ warranty ʿ ϴ ǰ) financial distress ũⰡ ũ, service ۽ϴ. ̹ , ϴ ġ ұ , ̿ 繫 źź ƹ ϴ. , Ȥ GM ·ο ڵ . financial leverage ʹ ũ , װ operation ġ ũ⸦ ؾ մϴ.
ġ discount rate մϴ. ġ ä ͷ ϰ, LBO ȸ Ļ 輺 ū CAPM մϴ.
ϸ, opearation finance ȸ ü ġ ɴϴ.
κп ڻ и 簡 ٽ ݴϴ. ̵ ڻ ʰ ֱ 簡 ȴٸ ׳ ָ ˴ϴ.
ȸ簡 bond 簡 ϴ.
κ ȸ ̷ ְԴϴ.
ġ ־ ٽ Ǵ FCF κԴϴ. ְ̰, ڰ ̷ Ȯ ʽϴ.
, Ͻø, ȸ ġ , Ͻô Դϴ.
ڼ Corporate Finance å 캸ø, ڼ ƽ ֽϴ.
1. Ҿ ǻ ߿Ѱ 帧 Դϴ. ̷ ͵
Ȯ ϴ Ư̳ 濵¸ Ͽ 3
ϰ Ŀ Ͽ δܰ մϴ.
FCF ּ մϴ. ̳ ϰ Ͻ
ϴ ȸ DCF Ŀ ġ ִٰ մϴ.
( ݰ ġ ˱ ..)
2. DCF bond ٰ ϼ̴µ.. ߰ Ź帳ϴ.
ϴ ̽..
3. DCF 簡ġ ȸ ݼ ڻ (, ) ϰ մϴ.
߸ִ ͵ .. DCF ġ
ڻ̳ ġ ְ Ͽ ϴ Ϳ ؼ Ͻô..
ñմϴ.
1. DCFʹ ū ϴ. ϸ, ̷ FCF Ŀ ̰, ϸ Ǵ Դϴ. ƴϱ discount rate ƹ ȭ ϴ.
10 ϰ, Ĵ industry ü mature industry Ǿٰ ϰ, GDP growth rate ȸ絵 Ѵٰ մϴ. մ ̶ մϴ. GDP growth rate ϴ ȸ簡 ִٸ, ȸ簡 ü ״ϱ. Ұ Դϴ.
10ΰ 5ΰ 3ΰ Ʋϴ. ᱹ ȸ簡 ִ industry mature ΰ Դϴ. apple ipod ӵ ʽϱ? 10Ⱓ ȸ 30%̻ ֽİ ũ ̰, 3 ΰ ߰.
ϰ Ͻ ٸϴ. ߿ Ͻ ִĴ Դϴ. ִٸ beta Ŀ discount rate Ŀ, , ƹ ٸ, If ؾ մϴ.
FCF ź . ̷ , Ȥ ϴٰ ص, Palesade Ȯм ̿ ϱ մϴ. (ȸ ϴ ƴմϴ ^_^)
2. ȸ ġ = ֽ ġ + ä ġ
ֽ ġ = ȸ ġ - ä ġ
3. Ʈ ٽ ־ϴ. մϴ.
ڻ ġ ߿ ٽ մϴ.
˷ٸ ϴ. , ̳ , ȸ ε, ȸ , ̳ straigtforward մϴ.
츮 ϳ ְ ϴ ֽø ϰڽϴ.
÷ ٿϴ.
̱ 繫ǰ ȸ HNI м ε, valuation κи Դϴ.
link ־ , ־ Ͻô Դϴ.
ٵ 츮 鿡 ϱ ؼ
ڸ īƮ κ ϴ°Ͱ
濵ڳ 濵 ʿ䰡 ٴ ϴ.
¶ غ ּ̱.
ָ ϰ ּż 帳ϴ.